Was Undersea Cable Sabotage Part of a Larger Pattern? (apnews.com) 64
Was the cutting of undersea cables part of a larger pattern? Russia and its proxies are accused by western officials of "staging dozens of attacks and other incidents across Europe since the invasion of Ukraine three years ago," reports the Associated Press.
That includes cyberattacks and committing acts of sabotage/vandalism/arson, as well as spreading propaganda and even plotting killings, according to the article. ("Western intelligence agencies uncovered what they said was a Russian plot to kill the head of a major German arms manufacturer that is a supplier of weapons to Ukraine...") The news agency documented 59 incidents "in which European governments, prosecutors, intelligence services or other Western officials blamed Russia, groups linked to Russia or its ally Belarus." [Western officials] allege the disruption campaign is an extension of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war, intended to sow division in European societies and undermine support for Ukraine... The incidents range from stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany to a plot to plant explosives on cargo planes. They include setting fire to stores and a museum, hacking that targeted politicians and critical infrastructure, and spying by a ring convicted in the U.K. Richard Moore, the head of Britain's foreign intelligence service, called it a "staggeringly reckless campaign" in November...
The cases are varied, and the largest concentrations are in countries that are major supporters of Ukraine... In about a quarter of the cases, prosecutors have brought charges or courts have convicted people of carrying out the sabotage. But in many more, no specific culprit has been publicly identified or brought to justice.
Despite that, "more and more governments are publicly attributing attacks to Russia," the article points out.
This week a nonprofit, bipartisan think tank on global policy released a report which "found that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024," reports the New York Times. Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland noted in a social media post on Monday that Lithuanian officials had confirmed his assessment that Russia was responsible for a series of fires in shopping centers in Warsaw and Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital...
That includes cyberattacks and committing acts of sabotage/vandalism/arson, as well as spreading propaganda and even plotting killings, according to the article. ("Western intelligence agencies uncovered what they said was a Russian plot to kill the head of a major German arms manufacturer that is a supplier of weapons to Ukraine...") The news agency documented 59 incidents "in which European governments, prosecutors, intelligence services or other Western officials blamed Russia, groups linked to Russia or its ally Belarus." [Western officials] allege the disruption campaign is an extension of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war, intended to sow division in European societies and undermine support for Ukraine... The incidents range from stuffing car tailpipes with expanding foam in Germany to a plot to plant explosives on cargo planes. They include setting fire to stores and a museum, hacking that targeted politicians and critical infrastructure, and spying by a ring convicted in the U.K. Richard Moore, the head of Britain's foreign intelligence service, called it a "staggeringly reckless campaign" in November...
The cases are varied, and the largest concentrations are in countries that are major supporters of Ukraine... In about a quarter of the cases, prosecutors have brought charges or courts have convicted people of carrying out the sabotage. But in many more, no specific culprit has been publicly identified or brought to justice.
Despite that, "more and more governments are publicly attributing attacks to Russia," the article points out.
This week a nonprofit, bipartisan think tank on global policy released a report which "found that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and then tripled again from 2023 to 2024," reports the New York Times. Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland noted in a social media post on Monday that Lithuanian officials had confirmed his assessment that Russia was responsible for a series of fires in shopping centers in Warsaw and Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital...
Re:Cause and effect (Score:4, Insightful)
Fine, but I don't think it matters whether the Russians thought of it first. What matters is whether they're doing it right now.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Who is saying that? The Danish investigation has suspects but no conclusion
Nord Stream: Denmark closes investigation into pipeline blast [bbc.com]
And US intelligence was putting some confidence that it was a Ukrainian aligned group
Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say [nytimes.com]
I don't think I have seen anyone say who did it with any real confidence, it's a crime where every party has a motive and could be a suspect. So which country was blaming the Russians at this point (not in the
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Oh give me a break. Just read the comments on the first Slashdot story reporting Nordstream being blown up, it's probably the worst false-flag op in history:
https://news.slashdot.org/stor... [slashdot.org]
The gaslighting isn't going to work on the Ukraine mess. What the West has done to those people is unforgivable.
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Yeah *First Story* in October 2022
Also what political leader or intelligence agency is in these ./ comments?
Give *me* a break. Same old story,
"They said this thing!"
"Ok, who is they?"
"Random internet commentators! The most important people! To me!"
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Nordstream being blown up, it's probably the worst false-flag op in history
Yep everyone knows it's the Russians doing it to blame UK/US/NATO/Ukraine. When the only country that benefitted was Russia.
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And US intelligence was putting some confidence that it was a Ukrainian aligned group
I wouldn't put much stock into what a highly likely suspect has to say. I'm inclined to believe that it was the U.S. that was responsible, even if indirectly. It's possible that someone else did it for their own reasons, but if you look at it from a perspective of profitable outcomes and the U.S. shoots to the top of the list. We're also powerful enough to lean on anyone who may know the truth to suppress or twist it.
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profitable outcomes and the U.S. shoots to the top of the list.
I definitely think you can make a case for the US being responsible, that's what makes this whole thing full of intrigue, the Russian, Ukrainians, American's and even some of Europe all had some motivation to attack.
I would say your claim is overly strong in my opinion, I think the US reasons for being involved are pretty weak. Profitable? For what, US gas exports? It's not as thought the US was struggling to find buyers for it's gas. I guess to weaken Russia by cutting off money they could make off gas?
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To deny EU gas, to make the EU think twice, to frame the Ukrainians, to frame the Americans. There are motivations, lesser ones but they exist you cannot say they do not. This whole thing started with people saying strong claims were made to blame Russia and my point was the official reports do NOT in fact think Russia was most likely the culprit so don't act like anyone is and don't act like Russia has less motivation than say the US does, this is all on a spectrum. I know nuance is hard for the ACs her
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
transcript: https://braveneweurope.com/jef... [braveneweurope.com]
By the way, if anyone would like to discuss how the US blew up Nord Stream, Iâ(TM)d be happy to talk about that too.
Check out who the speaker is. For half his points, I'd think they're Russian propaganda.... Considering who's saying this, it's a completely different story.
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transcript: https://braveneweurope.com/jef... [braveneweurope.com]
By the way, if anyone would like to discuss how the US blew up Nord Stream, Iâ(TM)d be happy to talk about that too.
Check out who the speaker is. For half his points, I'd think they've Russian propaganda.... Considering who's saying this, it's a completely different story.
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The "One inch eastward" is nonsense, the USSR and Warsaw pact existed at that time and it was specific to military into East Germany. Gorbachev confirms this as noted but you don't even need that, it makes no sense on it's face. Why would the US discuss or agree to anything about NATO expansion into the Warsaw pact? It's silly.
Also NATO never "recruits" any countries, countries have to apply and groups like Vilnius lobbied hard, very hard for years to get it. They were motivated, I wonder why?
This is not
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Sure just based on seeing him misconstrue those two points alone I get this feeling this guy is a FP "Realist" and that shit sucks, imo. If he's already off base about those two important things either intentionally or by mistake then the rest of his worldview in my opinion flawed from the start, I don't care who he is in my opinion he is opposed to American interests. My opinion of course.
I don't think the realists like Mearshimer have anything close to a good track record over the last 30 years, they've
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When Baker said "not one inch Eastward" was he talking about expanding NATO into the Warsaw Pact, while the Warsaw Pact existed? Why would he do that? Was the USSR foreshadowing its imminent collapse while negotiating German unification?
And even if he did why was none of this put to paper or anything official than an offhand remark if it was so, so, so critical to the USSR/Russia that if in the future they would use that pretense to invade another sovereign nation?
I can point you to his academic peers for a
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That link got hosed
https://voxukraine.org/en/open... [voxukraine.org]
Not Western - Mongol (Score:1)
Many of these ideas are not Western - quite the opposite - they are of Mongol origin.
Ever wondered how Genghis Khan built such a huge empire?
Well - many of his methods are still used by Russia today - propaganda, fear, bribery, manipulation, lies....
While Western chivalric tradition praised truth - Russia follows Mongols in 'say whatever causes opponent to do what you want, truth does not matter'.
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The post kind of leaves this open to interpretation, but I took things exactly the opposite of you. I felt that the implication was that, if anything, the propaganda, fear, and manipulation was being put out by the west. How do you explain a country being continuously being accused of these things, incompetent enough to never actually succeed in assassinations or sabotage, yet at the same time, so competent that they are never caught red-handed?
In cases where someone is eventually convicted in the linked ar
Re:Not Western - Mongol (Score:5, Interesting)
never caught red-handed?
This is an unreasonably high standard for when we are talking about actions of nation states much less in an active war and one that has state controlled media. Add on top of that the fact this is all spy-vs-spy type stuff and realistically nobody here is getting the real scoop, all we have to go on are these statements which are going to be vague by design not just for a lack of information.
I think it's also fair to have a lack of charity for the nation that is currently invading another one with the purpose to annex territory, I think it's OK to not think the best of them by default.
If Russia isn't invading anyone right now or the handful times it has done so since 1991 nobody would give conflict with them a second thought right now. You know how Russia can disable all that supposed propaganda? Leave Ukraine. Nobody was give that any consideration about that until 2014/2022, so much so that Obama famously made fun of Romney for saying Russia was our biggest adversary in a debate in 2012.
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I think it's also fair to have a lack of charity for the nation that is currently invading another one with the purpose to annex territory, I think it's OK to not think the best of them by default.
That's the way the world works now. Trump said it, True!. Biden said it, False! Or the converse depending on who you think is the bad guy. Its sort of goes with the way movie plots work.
Re:Not Western - Mongol (Score:5, Insightful)
So you think it's unfair to think critically of Russia about these incidents, Russia the nation that is currently the aggressor (unjustified aggression in my view) in a war of territorial occupation who has for decades engaged in this type of hybrid warfare, performed confirmed assassination's on non-Russian territory, has engaged in sabotage and for decades has used "unofficial" paramilitary forces to engage in conflicts, that's the country that we should treat as a totally neutral "he said/she said" type fashion, can't give any tilt towards the direction that maybe the Russian state is lying to everyone?
Or maybe, Russia is the bad guy here. It's OK to say that, the evidence is pointing that way, if your morals line up with that type of thing of course.
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o you think it's unfair to think critically of Russia about these incidents, Russia the nation that is currently the aggressor (unjustified aggression in my view) in a war of territorial occupation who has for decades engaged in this type of hybrid warfare, performed confirmed assassination's on non-Russian territory, has engaged in sabotage and for decades has used "unofficial" paramilitary forces to engage in conflicts,
Are you talking about Russia or the United States?
that's the country that we should treat as a totally neutral "he said/she said" type fashion, can't give any tilt towards the direction that maybe the Russian state is lying to everyone?
I see no reason to think Russia is more likely to be lying than anyone else. Propaganda may be true or not. What is certain is that the propagandist thinks it serves their interests.
Or maybe, Russia is the bad guy here. It's OK to say that, the evidence is pointing that way,
There is no evidence. Just statements by people with zero interest in the truth. And the argument for believing them is that they may be liars but their are our liars. Its a fanboy operation where whose side you are on determines your beliefs.
Re:Not Western - Mongol (Score:4)
Classic, just say "both sides" and wave your hand.
I see no reason to think Russia is more likely to be lying than anyone else. Propaganda may be true or not.
Well I do and it's their system of governance by oligarch and dictator, their lack of free press and abundance of state-controlled media their known history of offensive cyberattacks and social media engineering, do we want to start a list.
And before you "both sides" not believeing Russia != you believe the US either, but we do have a free press so the government can be called out on it's BS and often is. How's Navalny doing by the way?
There is no evidence.
So Russia was justified in invading Ukraine? You can make that case, come on give me those talking points.
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Well I do and it's their system of governance by oligarch and dictator, their lack of free press and abundance of state-controlled media their known history of offensive cyberattacks and social media engineering, do we want to start a list.
Once again you are describing the United States.
How's Navalny doing by the way?
He's dead. Just like Fred Hampton.
we do have a free press so the government can be called out on it's BS
Only by the people who own the press and their megaphone only amplifies propaganda that serves their interests and drowns out everything elst. The rest of us can complain to no effect. If we have any effect, we are bloody terrorists.
Lets be clear. People in Russia support Putin. You can say they are brainwashed. But that is because you have no real access to anything that contradicts the propaganda you read. Without the fact
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"Both Sides". Everything is the same all the time so you never have to take a stand on a belief. I admit that is a convenient method. Checkmate sir.
Only by the people who own the press
Yes but you agree if it's say the government that owns the press (like the Russian State) that's a whole different thing yes or no?
People in Russia support Putin.
How do you know this? I am not saying they are brainwashed, how do you know? What press or public opinion polls are independent of the Russian State?
why would you not believe that Russia is deliberately "sabotaging" cables in Europe, with the help of China?
Did this not start with standards of evidence? I can believe a thing but I wouldn't
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Yes but you agree if it's say the government that owns the press (like the Russian State) that's a whole different thing yes or no?
No. Not if the same small group of people who control the government also control the media. Which is how it works in Russia and to a large extent in the United States. But have you never heard of the BBC or CBC or Voice of America or Radio Liberty or ...? There are a lot of countries with government owned media and even more with government preferred media. Have you followed the story of AP's refusal to change the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America?
I wouldn't make a strong claim without some evidence.
Just weak claims without some evidence? I tend not to m
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Everything is the same all the time so you never have to take a stand on a belief.
Not hardly. But there is a name for condemning someone for something you do yourself. But aside from hypocrisy, which I think is a human condition (that both sides thing again), it usually means that there is an ulterior motive for the accusation. The problem with these accusations is that the ulterior motives of those making the accusation is obvious., whether true or not.
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There is no evidence. Just statements by people with zero interest in the truth.
At what point does "coincidence" [bbc.co.uk] cross the line to become evidence of foul play?
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What does that story have to do with underwater cables? The answer is nothing.>/p>
Its not hard to suspect Russian intelligence was responsible for killing a former KGB agent who switched sides nor that it engages in covert activities. That's what spies do.
The other thing that spies do is place disinformation about adversaries. The question is whether Russia is really engaged in cutting underwater cables or is this disinformation. Russia's denial can be dismissed. They would deny it true or not. Bu
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You know how Russia can disable all that supposed propaganda? Leave Ukraine. Nobody was give that any consideration about that until 2014/2022, so much so that Obama famously made fun of Romney for saying Russia was our biggest adversary in a debate in 2012.
Interesting. So, if I read what you are saying correctly, you think it is a good thing for Western governments and institutions to target their own people with anti-Russian propoganda if the result is to vulcanize support for Ukraine? and I assume also in supporting Ukraine militarily and financially?
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They can just go home a live peaceful lives.
Tell us why they don't?
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you think it is a good thing for Western governments and institutions to target their own people with anti-Russian propoganda if the result is to vulcanize support for Ukraine?
Did I say that? It would depend, just saying a thing is "propaganda" does not make it inherently bad we just have to recognize what it is. If the government is simply reporting on whats happening and explaining their motivations, is that still propaganda and is it bad?
I do support giving Ukraine aid of all sorts they need. I think despite past mistakes we still hold American values to defend democracies, even and especially struggling ones from (imo) completely unjustified aggression to annex territory.
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taking US government money?
Explain with examples please. The government spends a lot of money, you are so normatively loading that statement that it is worthless on it's own. (I already know the Politico accusation and it's utter bullshit so until you get specific I can assume those others are just as inaccurate)
By the way, your "invading with the intent to annex territory" is an anti-Semitic slur. Israel does not intend to ethnically cleanse and annex Gaza.
I didn't mention Israel once. Been thinking about the Jews a lot have we?
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You didn't get that?
No, I didn't get that because evidently I have a much better memory than you...
Alexander Litvinenko, Sergei Skripal, Victor Yushchenko; handing Buk SAMs to the rebels in the Donbas so they could shoot down MH17; invading Crimea. That's just a few I could remember while writing this (I did look up some of the spellings). There will be more (there's the infamous case of the Bulgarian(?) murdered in the west by an injection of Ricin, but that was in the cold war period so Soviet, not Russian). And plausibl
Re:Not Western - Mongol (Score:4, Interesting)
So interesting you should say that, since I have lately been thinking along similar lines myself.
In many ways, it seems like Russia is the spiritual successor of the Mongol Empire. The territorial extent and tendency towards expansionism is clear. While I didn't think about the points you made, in terms of warfare there are also several parallels: the Mongols would offer cities a chance to surrender and join their empire, and those who opposed where brutally and mercilessly razed to the ground and its population massacred.
This is really no different than the current day Russian military doctrine of using heavy artillery file and bombing to subdue the enemy by flattening entire cities to the ground. They don't even care about their own civilian population or ethnic Russians in the area. So many cities in Chechnya and now in eastern Ukraine have suffered this fate, despite considerable Russian populations, which they typically claim to be "liberating" as pretext for going to war (or "special military operation" - sure).
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Darth Putin doesn't have enough sycophants.
He would if he'd stop killing them off....
This is happening since 2014 if not 2008 ... (Score:3)
At least since 2014 there is increase in internet activity - trolling. propaganda bots, voters manipulation, ransomware etc. etc..
Gradually it shifted from the internet to real world...
YES! (Score:3)
Oh, you think? (Score:3)
Captain Obvious strikes again!
Re: Oh, you think? (Score:2)
Probably (Score:2)
But what can you realistically do about it, other than build redundancies, monitor the area, and plan for the worst?
Re: Probably (Score:2)
10 Years ago. (Score:2)
To quote a senior person within a western intelligence agency, "If the things happening on the internet were happening in the physical world, it would be a shooting war".
That was 10 years ago. It hasn't got better since. Quite the opposite.
It's naive to go around thinking there isn't a number of groups of governments engaging in a protracted and coordinated cyber war. The criminals are at it too and there is much overlap between the two.
What would it take to generate a response? (Score:4, Interesting)
In my strategic studies discussion group, we've talked about "If Putin ramps up sabotage, information operations, political mistrust, cyber attacks, etc, etc; what would it take for Europe or 'the West' to actually respond? Or will Putin continue to 'boil the frog,' continuing actions at a rate that never quite reaches the level of mobilizing governments and populations to take action in response?"
If you look back 10 years, you can see 'mysterious explosions' at ammunition plants, attacks on dissidents, influence operations, funding of extremist groups, etc. The recent activities against telecom cables are relatively new, but most of the rest of the stuff in this playbook have been going on for quite a while.
In one sense, the actions by Trump to change the US position on Russia and Ukraine, and particularly on European Defense, are forcing the European Community and Europe in general (even Ireland :-) ) to start looking very hard at their individual and collective defense postures. That might well work against Russia in the long run, even if it looks like it's supporting Russia in the short run.
My college classmate (who taught mil history at West Point) has been saying for the last 5 years, "We are in the opening stages of World War III. If you don't believe this, you haven't been paying attention." Particularly since the invasion of Ukraine AND actions in Europe (e.g. 'anchor dragging'), I'm having an increasingly hard time saying "You're over-reacting."
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The great thing about plotting a killing (Score:2)
is that you don't actually have to follow through with it. Especially if you know that the plan will leak to the other side sooner than later.
In a nutshell (Score:3)
It’s effective in the short term, but Russia is storing up trouble for itself in the future. It’s gonna be hard for most legit ports to trust Russian vessels. Their dark fleet of ships will be fine, but can you imagine the insurance premiums that any Russia vessels will pay if they want to be legit? This’ll probably last for decades. They have well and truly screwed their shipping industry first decades.
All around, Russia has well and truly fu&$ed itself, probably for the next 50 years at least. The really stupid thing is that Putin could have accomplished most of his goals by simply behaving well. Before Ukraine, NATO was basically comatose, and so were most of Europe’s militaries. More and more people were viewing it as a brain-dead anachronism. If Russia had just played nice, it could gave expanded it’s influence in the region without firing a single artillery piece and NATO would have naturally decayed. Now, NATO is back, every country that isn’t already a Russian puppet has joined or wants to, and European countries are starting to realize that they might actually have to fight.
And, to anyone who thinks Russia will be better off this way, remember that the entire Russian economy is smaller than Italy. Chew on that for a few seconds. The idea that they can revive some sort of big old-timey empire is utterly laughable.