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Was China's 'Spy Balloon' Just Blown Off Course? (cbsnews.com) 112

China appears to have suspended its global surveillance balloon program after a balloon was spotted drifting over the United States in February.

But now an anonymous reader shares this report from CBS News: Seven months later, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tells "CBS News Sunday Morning" the balloon wasn't spying. "The intelligence community, their assessment — and it's a high-confidence assessment — [is] that there was no intelligence collection by that balloon," he said.

So, why was it over the United States? There are various theories, with at least one leading theory that it was blown off-track. The balloon had been headed toward Hawaii, but the winds at 60,000 feet apparently took over. "Those winds are very high," Milley said. "The particular motor on that aircraft can't go against those winds at that altitude..."

After the Navy raised the wreckage from the bottom of the Atlantic, technical experts discovered the balloon's sensors had never been activated while over the Continental United States. But by then, the damage to U.S.-China relations had been done.

On the CBS News show Sunday Morning, the host had this exchange with America's chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

CBS: "Bottom line, it was a spy balloon, but it wasn't spying?"

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "I would say it was a spy balloon that we know with high degree of certainty got no intelligence, and didn't transmit any intelligence back to China."
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Was China's 'Spy Balloon' Just Blown Off Course?

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  • blow from west to east
    It was going to go over north america somewhere.

    • by XXongo ( 3986865 )

      blow from west to east It was going to go over north america somewhere.

      Blowing from Alaska down to the continental United States.

      So, first blowing south. Then west to east.

      • by tsqr ( 808554 )

        The balloon was supposedly at an altitude 60,000 feet. This is significantly above the altitudes at which the jet stream typically occurs, generally ranging from a little more than 20,000 to 40,000 feet. At 60,000 feet, winds are usually calm.

        But let's assume that this was an extraordinary weather event and the jet stream was actually that high. Balloons are capable of attaining much higher altitudes than 60,000 feet. It sounds like there was something wrong with this balloons control and/or propulsion syst

  • by Ubi_NL ( 313657 ) <joris.benschop@g ... ail.com minus pi> on Monday September 18, 2023 @06:44AM (#63857120) Journal

    I'm pretty sure that China knew exactly where this innocent balloon was at any time point. Sure, balloons drift of course, but then why was there no diplomatic contact between China and US alerting them on this problem? If there was contact, why would it be kept secret from the public? Any of both parties could have published the email no?

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      If there was contact, why would it be kept secret from the public?

      Because it doesn't fit the US narrative on China.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        by sabbede ( 2678435 )
        And this report does fit that narrative? I think I may have found a flaw in your logic.
        • by war4peace ( 1628283 ) on Monday September 18, 2023 @07:18AM (#63857178)

          The report comes a long time after the fact, when public opinion is already rooted.
          So, yeah, it fits the narrative. It actually fits it very well.

          1. You yell and whine about "evil Chinese balloon".
          2. Public opinion is swayed towards hating the "evil Chinese".
          3. You publish a report which 1% of people notice, saying "oops, we were wrong".
          4. Public opinion remains largely unchanged.
          5. From now on, if someone asks about it, you tell them "we are oh-so-honest, we published an apologetic report", but your initial goals were already met.

          Or maybe I am paranoid, you decide.

      • If there was contact, why would it be kept secret from the public?

        Because it doesn't fit the US narrative on China.

        If there was contact, and the US was keeping it secret to make China look bad, then China could have publicized it at any time and made the US look bad.

        So what you're ultimately saying is that China is pathetically incompetent. How does that help China's image?

        • > If there was contact, and the US was keeping it secret to make China look bad, then China could have publicized it at any time and made the US look bad. So what you're ultimately saying is that China is pathetically incompetent. How does that help China's image?

          The confusion is really simple:

          Then : "Even before Pelosi’s visit, the U.S. says China declined or failed to respond to over a dozen requests from the Department of Defense for top-level dialogues since 2021."

          Now : "that relations between

        • If there was contact, why would it be kept secret from the public?

          Because it doesn't fit the US narrative on China.

          If there was contact, and the US was keeping it secret to make China look bad, then China could have publicized it at any time and made the US look bad.

          So what you're ultimately saying is that China is pathetically incompetent. How does that help China's image?

          I think its helpful to the Chinese for the USA to look like frothing lunatics.
          And the US plays that role oh so well. Only Russia does it better.

          • I think its helpful to the Chinese for the USA to look like frothing lunatics.
            And the US plays that role oh so well. Only Russia does it better.

            Riiiight, China has death vans and concentration camps and the US looks frothier. Go on, pull the other one, it's got fifty cents on it.

            • I think its helpful to the Chinese for the USA to look like frothing lunatics.
              And the US plays that role oh so well. Only Russia does it better.

              Riiiight, China has death vans and concentration camps and the US looks frothier. Go on, pull the other one, it's got fifty cents on it.

              People in the USA live in such fear that they walk down the street with guns and have to have a gun handy when they answer the door, sometimes shooting strangers who were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

              The USA has a long history of invading and otherwise fucking with other countries, China does not.

              Frothy there.

    • by guruevi ( 827432 ) on Monday September 18, 2023 @07:14AM (#63857166)

      Apparently this was the first time anyone outside the US military noticed. According to later reports, China had already flown several balloons. Also interesting that Milley says it was just the wind blowing the balloon when it hit as much military bases as it could.

      I guess the military just builds bases straight in the path of a major windstream.

    • by Anonymous Coward
      "Observe calmly, secure our position, cope with affairs calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile, and never claim leadership."

      The stated philsophy of the PRC is to lull their enemies into a false sense of security until a decisive blow can be landed. The PRC has no reason to provide any truthful information about their intent and the rest of the world has no reason to ever trust the PRC.
    • what happened to diplomacy?

      You're looking at it.

    • Diplomacy and spying are not mutually exclusive. Countries around the world spy on even their best "friend" countries. The diplomats aren't going to easily reveal this.

    • I'm pretty sure that China knew exactly where this innocent balloon was at any time point. Sure, balloons drift of course, but then why was there no diplomatic contact between China and US alerting them on this problem? If there was contact, why would it be kept secret from the public? Any of both parties could have published the email no?

      China had a motive to keep quiet since leaving the balloon to be discovered by the Americans could reveal the US's ability to monitor airspace.

      The Americans also had a motive to keep quiet since they didn't want the Chinese to know how good their counter-surveillance was.

      Unfortunately the US public found out, so the need for the US to save face in front of other countries and their own public trumped secrecy and they had to show some of their cards.

      There's still some ambiguity, did the balloon really stop f [gwynnedyer.com]

  • by jenningsthecat ( 1525947 ) on Monday September 18, 2023 @07:05AM (#63857142)

    ...technical experts discovered the balloon's sensors had never been activated while over the Continental United States. But by then, the damage to U.S.-China relations had been done.

    If memory serves, relations between the countries were already in the shitter, and this incident - or non-incident - was barely even a daub of icing on the crap-cake.

    • Correct: geopolitical strategist (and therefore politicians and diplomats) have warned of a rising great powers conflict between the US and China for a long time. There's a reason that the US and EU are racing to build domestic TSMC fabs.
  • by EmagGeek ( 574360 ) on Monday September 18, 2023 @07:11AM (#63857156) Journal

    Yes, of course it was just blown off course. China would never, ever intentionally send a spy balloon over the United States, and it would definitely never have it linger for hours and hours over military installations, missile silo farms, or other places we wouldn't want people to spy on. No, hell no, China would never ever do that.

    • Nothing lingered over any target, the high level winds might have stopped as it hit the high pressure dome that sits over western United States about 65% of the time. If china wants to spy, buy a house next to military base and and make friends. Your average captain in the USAF will tell the new neighbor just about anything about a F-35 radio FRU. Because we have an open society where defence contractors advertise during the superbowl, despite everything being marked top secret including wsj articles
  • by Anonymous Coward

    "The intelligence community, their assessment â" and it's a high-confidence assessment â" [is] that there was no intelligence collection by that balloon," he said."

    Which is the exact opposite of what he said while the balloon was in US airspace, when he was practically begging Biden for permission to shoot it down because it was gathering intelligence on our military installations and posing a 'clear and present danger to the national security of the United States' (his exact words during his inte

    • Yes, amazing how the opinion changed after doing a thorough analysis of the wreckage.

    • by DarkOx ( 621550 )

      "The intelligence community" - is literal a group of professional liars!

      There is no reason at all given all the revelations over the past fifty+ years to think for even a second anything released from these sources for public consumption should be taken at face value. Is some of true - of course, if it was always counter factual nobody would ever believe any of it. Even when it is true, timing ( background of other unrelated events) and cherry picking sill mean its often propaganda.

      The only sane thing to do

  • by necro81 ( 917438 ) on Monday September 18, 2023 @07:20AM (#63857182) Journal
    Suppose for a moment that this explanation is correct: it was a spy balloon that drifted off course, and was never actually doing any spying over the US. This does not explain why, when it became apparent that China could not keep the balloon on its intended track (whatever that was), they did not terminate it on their own? There were significant portions of its track over international waters [wikipedia.org] - long before it started drifting over the U.S. - when China could have said: "Gosh, it looks like we've lost control. Rather than risk an international incident, let's just have it self-destruct." Then, too, there appears to be no reports of China calling the U.S. and saying "Well, shucks, we've got a runaway balloon about to drift over you."

    All of which leads me to the conclusion that China didn't care how it looked: they were happy to throw out such a provocation and see how the U.S. reacted. Or the explanation offered - that it wasn't actually spying - is bogus. Or that China lost the ability to communicate with it at all - including some kind of flight termination system, and nothing like a watchdog timer - and they were too worried about losing face they couldn't make a simple phone call.
    • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      That's all based on the assumption that it was a spy balloon, for which there is very little evidence. Even the US has admitted that it didn't collect any data over the US, let alone sent any to China. Not one part of it has been shown to the press, despite being recovered and examined.

      Why isn't the US using this huge propaganda win? The only explanation is because it's actually more embarrassing for the US.

    • Perhaps the most simple explanation is the answer. All control was lost due to a failure. Better to say nothing than risk the embarrassment of admitting failure.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Bigjeff5 ( 1143585 )

      and they were too worried about losing face they couldn't make a simple phone call.

      If you know anything about Chinese culture, you'd know this is actually a REALLY big deal, and could reasonably explain the entire incident. Regular Chinese parents demand their failing students pass to the next grade, despite the damage it would do to the child's continuing education, to save face in front of other parents. A whole town revolted when the local school system started cracking down on cheating, because the parents cared more about their children getting the correct grade than they did about t

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      They probably lost communications with it. No control. No idea where it is exactly. But a situation that might remedy itself once the balloon passes back within view of a satellite. So they can't self destruct it. And they may not want to destroy an otherwise functioning asset.

      This may explain why no intelligence gathering was detected by the USA. Lose sight of your relay satellite for some specified time: Scrub your memory and go into a downwind requisition mode.

    • by RobinH ( 124750 )
      The explanation I've heard is that during his purge Xi has replaced any advisors capable of independent thought with "yes men". None of them want to bring bad news to "dear leader." It's unlikely Xi was aware of the impending incident before it happened, and it's unlikely the agency responsible notified any other wing of the party, whether diplomatic or military. I guess they hoped it would "blow over."
  • If I lost control of a surveillance asset, I'm pounding the confirmation button for "Sure you want to delete?"

  • I miss... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by choko ( 44196 )

    ...when slashdot was more than a mouthpiece for Chinese and Russian propaganda.

    • It's pretty clear the US has been compromised by both of those hostile actors. How the fuck did this happen? Why is no one doing anything?

      Do we really want to see what would've happened if we lost ww2?

      Just asking the REAL questions.....

  • Piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.

  • I heard from some ham radio operators in the Missouri area that were monitoring transmissions from the balloon that it was actively transmitting the entire time it was over them. So I call BS on what Milley is saying.
  • The balloon was launched with a mission objective. The U.S. seems to be using weasel words in this case to indicate that the mission for THIS balloon was NOT the U.S. THIS TIME. My understanding is the Chinese have been launching these things on a monthly-plus basis for years. They are mainly needed when you need to see something you can't see from a satellite due to cloud cover, etc.

    Balloon navigation is tricky. They are launched hours and days in advance of when and where they are needed. They are
    • by ebunga ( 95613 )

      I find it hard to believe that their weather models are worse than Google's Project Loon. I'm pretty sure all this hand-wringing about the US not being a target this time is, in fact, diplomacy and allowing China to save face.

  • Satellites can't track submarines. I don't think a balloon could find submarines any better than a satellite without having a probe in the water. There are networks of sonar/microphone buoys that China uses to track submarines, same as the US does. I'm not sure what this balloon would be spying or monitoring. Maybe it provides better real-time tracking of surface vessels.
  • "We got our saber-rattling/distraction value out of this issue a while ago but don't really want to piss China off right now what with all the stuff we're funneling to Ukraine." I look forward to seeing General MIlley as a lobbyist for General Dynamics in a few years.
  • The answer, my friend
    Is blowin' in the wind
    The answer is blowin' in the wind

  • It's 100% lies. With high confidence, I say the US and China have made a gentleman's agreement that we will pretend it wasn't spying if you just knock it off already. Win-win.

  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "I would say it was a spy balloon that we know with high degree of certainty got no intelligence, and didn't transmit any intelligence back to China."

    AKA: We were correct in shooting it down, but don/t blame us for anything because it didn't do anything important.

    This is just massive CYA.
  • I kill people for a living.

    But I'm honest, honest!

  • China is a source of fake scientific claims, fake technology, fake education, and fake industrial and scientific safety. They love to puff up like peacock standing in traffic.
  • Some more details [gwynnedyer.com]:

    Mumbled explanations to the Washington Post by embarrassed American officials who must remain nameless have now revealed that the US intelligence services saw the balloon launched from Hainan island off the southern Chinese coast in late January – and it was headed straight east for the US-owned island of Guam.

    Guam is the major US air and naval base in the western Pacific, and an obvious target for a military reconnaissance balloon. National airspace only extends twelve nauti

  • Are two words, that should never be used in the same sentence.

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