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EU Government Medicine

In World First, Slovokia Plans To Test the Entire Country For COVID-19 (bbc.com) 80

Posted by EditorDavid from the national-testing dept.
The BBC reports: Slovakia has begun an ambitious project to test everyone over the age of 10 for Covid-19, but the president has said she thinks the idea is "unfeasible".

The operation to test four million people is to last over two weekends. Infections have soared in Slovakia and officials argue the only alternative would be a total lockdown. President Zuzana Caputova called for a rethink of the plan after armed forces chiefs said there were not enough trained health workers to carry it out. So far only 70% of the 20,000 staff needed to administer the nasal swab tests have been recruited, according to the defence minister...

From dawn on Saturday, soldiers and medics were due to fan out across the country, from the vast Petrzalka housing estates of Bratislava, to tiny hamlets in the shadows of the Tatra Mountains, to the mostly Hungarian-speaking towns dotted along the Danube plain.... The plan is to test almost four-fifths of the population, using rapid antigen testing that has an estimated 30% false negative rate. Results will be delivered in a sealed envelope within 30 minutes. "It's the army's biggest logistical operation since the country became independent," said Defence Minister Jaro Nad...

Slovakia's numbers are far lower but government modelling predicts a catastrophic overload of hospitals by mid-November if nothing is done. "There's no alternative — it's either mass testing or harsh lockdown," Mr Nad told the BBC.... While testing is voluntary, those who refuse must self-isolate for 10 days. Breaking that quarantine will be punished with a hefty fine. A negative test result, however, will serve as a "free pass" from a curfew due to be introduced from Monday...

If it works, other countries might soon follow suit.
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In World First, Slovokia Plans To Test the Entire Country For COVID-19 More

In World First, Slovokia Plans To Test the Entire Country For COVID-19

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  • Slovakia (Score:5, Informative)

    by nicolaiplum ( 169077 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @07:43PM (#60673188)

    It's called "Slovakia", you incompetent bunch of illiterates.

  • Slopokia you say? Ok, I guess that means Slashdot headquarters.

  • ...get infected while doing the test. Or you are already infected but not yet positive. And you go out and continue infecting people. Totally useless.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 )

      They are also leaving all the under-10s as a disease reservoir.

      Slovakia has no border control with the rest of the EU. No passport or any ID is needed. When I traveled from Vienna to Bratislava (to get a much cheaper flight back to London), I just hopped off the train at the destination.

      So this all seems like a PR stunt and mostly a waste of test kits.

      • Slovakia has no border control with the rest of the EU. No passport or any ID is needed.

        That was before the pandemic. Since then, many european countries have re-instated border controls.

        • That was before the pandemic. Since then, many european countries have re-instated border controls.

          Slovakia currently has checkpoints at the Polish and Ukrainian borders.

          There are no checkpoints at the Austrian, Czech, and Hungarian borders.

      • And the test has a 30% false-negative rate. So the statement:

        A negative test result, however, will serve as a "free pass" from a curfew due to be introduced from Monday...

        really means:

        30% of infected people, however, will get a "free pass" from a curfew due to be introduced from Monday...

        Continuing:

        If it works, other countries might soon follow suit.

        It won't work. QED.

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by rtb61 ( 674572 )

          The idea is mathematically stupid. How long will it take, all on the one day, obviously not and of course, what happens if they get infected the day after the test. The test proves nothing, the only value in broad spread testing is, who has antibodies and who does not. That is a worthwhile test. If you suddenly find the majority of you population has antibodies, obviously no point in any anticovid measures.

          • I don't think it is necessarily mathematically stupid. The test has to be good enough but it doesn't need to be perfect. To control a virus, you need to get R0 less than 1. If you have a test that is statistically better than random, you can use use it to reduce R0 by say quarantining those with positives (yes, there will be false positives so you over-quarantine those people). On average, this will reduce the population at-large with the virus and prevent the virus from spreading as much (reducing R0).

            Howe

          • It's been estimated if you took the temperature, pressure, and humidity of every cubic foot of air, and had a powerful enough supercomputer, which you don't, you could maybe predict weather for 30 days.

            And this is that, but 30% inaccuracy, not perfect, and "butterfly" effects are superspreader events on top of all that.

        • Even worse - The false positive rate is also bad. So not only will they miss one in three sick people, they will also inconvenience tens of thousands of healthy people.

        • It can work to reduce R0 by constantly testing about 10% of the population every day, If you do this it drives down the R0 and the virus becomes very rare. Keep doing that and use contact tracing with cell phone apps.

    • In a testing facility there would be mask wearing and social distancing. Just like when you get your flu shot. You are extremely unlikely to get sick under those circumstances. You're more likely to get hit by lightning on the way over.

      As for testing positive, 60% of carriers show no symptoms. If you now know you've got it you can quarantine. Quarantine everyone (or a high percentage) of carriers and the virus goes away.

    • Mail the tests. Completely safe

  • Follow the false negative. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by geekmux ( 1040042 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @08:40PM (#60673328)

    "If it works, other countries might soon follow suit. "

    Ignore every spreader under 10, 30% false negative rate, still need 5000+ testers, and their president thinks it's unfeasible.

    Not sure there's a point in following that due to the false negatives alone. We'll see. Best of luck to them, and the rest of us humans.

    • Re:Follow the false negative. (Score:5, Interesting)

      by pz ( 113803 ) on Sunday November 01, 2020 @09:22PM (#60673384) Journal

      Despite the shortcomings, such broad-swathed testing will undoubtedly have a major impact in the infection rate.

      If the goal is to eradicate the disease, it is not worth doing. If the goal is to knock the disease back hard enough so that the hospitals are not overrun and the economy can avoid a lockdown, then the effort might be good enough.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Ignore every spreader under 10, 30% false negative rate, still need 5000+ testers, and their president thinks it's unfeasible.

      Presidents don't have a very good track record for this kind of thing. If America's President thought it was unfeasible. That's a solid indication it's likely to work.

      • Ignore every spreader under 10, 30% false negative rate, still need 5000+ testers, and their president thinks it's unfeasible.

        Presidents don't have a very good track record for this kind of thing. If America's President thought it was unfeasible. That's a solid indication it's likely to work.

        Slashdot readers don't have a very good track record for RTFA I know, but it was in the first line of The Fucking Summary.

        "Slovakia has begun an ambitious project to test everyone over the age of 10 for Covid-19, but the president has said she thinks the idea is "unfeasible".

        Pull your head out of American politics and take a breather already. You'll live longer.

    • Spreading by under 10s supposedly is very limited, and getting 70% of all infected, with and without symptoms, off the streets in one go is much much better than any country in Europe may hope for with their partial or full lockdowns and other countermeasures. Yes it's not perfect, true, it will certainly not eradicate Covid19, but it may well beat lots of the actively employed alternatives. Plus, it may reduce the number of infected to the point where contact tracing can work again.
  • If you are trying to stop it, you are going to need to administer two tests about a week apart for each and every person, and effectively lock down in between. You also need instant results, especially for the second test— but a maximum of 24h for the first test. I wish we had a functioning CDC and WHO that could create logical protocols and options for places to model strategies after. Most strategies at this point seem like desparate attempts at avoiding the most simple (lockdown) approach. I am
    • The WHO et al had plans for how to deal with a pandemic, but COVID was more contagious than anyone expected.
      • From what I understand, it isn’t especially more contagious, but the asymptomatic period is longer than normal. It seems like all plans were based on actually being able to contain things early on.
        • This puts the incubation period at 3-14 days [harvard.edu] (search in the page for 'incubation period'). I think that's a normal incubation period for airborne viruses. I remember reading a hypothesis that people were highly contagious right before they showed symptoms, but when I looked for evidence to support that hypothesis I couldn't find anything convincing (possibly new evidence has emerged).

          My understanding is that COVID-19 binds easily to certain common human cells [pnas.org], and that's why it's so contagious. Just a sma

          • I remember reading a hypothesis that people were highly contagious right before they showed symptoms, but when I looked for evidence to support that hypothesis I couldn't find anything convincing

            I don't have any cites for you, but that would fit a typical pattern. You're most contagious before your immune response kicks in and starts fighting an illness, and some symptoms (like, say, green or yellow phlegm) are signs of that happening. This is very much how cold viruses "work", or more to the point, how they are worked against. You're most contagious right before you start coughing up a bunch of crap, although coughing up stuff may make you a more effective spreader — especially if you're not

            • and some symptoms (like, say, green or yellow phlegm) are signs of that happening.

              ???? Those are symptoms..

  • Test 10% every day, Mailin tests. Test everyone who goes out every week. Use bluetooth apps for contact tracing. It would reduce R0 below 1 so the virus goes away. You dont have to have catch every infected person, just reduce the rate of replication. (read about R0)

  • Tests are not perfect. They dont have to be. You dont have to find every infected person, just reduce the R0 below 1. This takes a series of imperfect measures, like testing, tracing, bluetooth apps, thermcams. etc. None of them are perfect. Perfection is the enemy of good. If the R0 goes below 1, the virus dies out. You dont have to prevent every infection, just reduce the rate at which the virus transmits.

    • we've already proven that even with lockdown and masks it still spreads. People living alone that wore mask outdoors have come down with it.

      Herd immunity or maybe vaccine, one or the other will happen.

      • I saw an article on BBC about the last two occupants of a village on a mountain in Spain: Two guys, five sheep and one dog. The two guys were wearing masks. It may have been better to put the masks on the sheep.
  • But... but.. but.. Trump said US does the most testing!

  • Nice! A proper statistic on false negatives! ... Is all I could think about here.

  • The test used is "STANDARD Q COVID-Ag Test". Sensitivity in the range from 63 to 86 %. Specificity about 99%. Government bought about 20e6 tests at unit price from 3.9 to 4.45 EUR per test. Slovakia's population is 5.5e6. 2.58e6 citizens were tested on Saturday. 25850 test results were positive. Attendance on Sunday is expected to be significantly lower. It is likely that this will only slow down the disease a bit.

  • They (Score:3)

    by MemoryDragon ( 544441 ) on Monday November 02, 2020 @09:43AM (#60674942)

    caught 25.000 positives that way in a single weekend... so speaking of unfeasable I would call it a major success to get the infection rates down. Even if it just is 70% of possible infected ... this is 25.000 possible spreaders now being sent into quarantine for 2 weels, to heal it out!

    Btw. some neighbouring countries helped to get the logistics up!

  • What is the point of this? Wouldn't a test of random sample provide almost the same information? Is the pharma lobby behind it?

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