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EPA Plans To Get Thousands of Pollution Deaths Off the Books by Changing Its Math (nytimes.com) 308

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to change the way it calculates the health risks of air pollution, a shift that would make it easier to roll back a key climate change rule because it would result in far fewer predicted deaths from pollution, New York Times reported this week, citing five people with knowledge of the agency's plans. From the report: The E.P.A. had originally forecast that eliminating the Obama-era rule, the Clean Power Plan, and replacing it with a new measure would have resulted in an additional 1,400 premature deaths per year. The new analytical model would significantly reduce that number and would most likely be used by the Trump administration to defend further rollbacks of air pollution rules if it is formally adopted. The proposed shift is the latest example of the Trump administration downgrading the estimates of environmental harm from pollution in regulations. In this case, the proposed methodology would assume there is little or no health benefit to making the air any cleaner than what the law requires. Many experts said that approach was not scientifically sound and that, in the real world, there are no safe levels of the fine particulate pollution associated with the burning of fossil fuels.
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EPA Plans To Get Thousands of Pollution Deaths Off the Books by Changing Its Math

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  • by cascadingstylesheet ( 140919 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @10:38AM (#58636192) Journal

    Thousands of "projected" deaths.

    OK, so group A projects X, and group B projects Y.

    I'm going to need a bit more than "OMG Trump pass the smelling salts" before I know whether this is good or bad.

    in the real world, there are no safe levels of the fine particulate pollution associated with the burning of fossil fuels.

    Really? No safe levels? Because there is pretty much some of everything pretty much everywhere. Safety is all about levels.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Joreallean ( 969424 )
      Absolutely it is about the levels, but if something causes cancer regularly in high enough concentrations it doesn't mean that it is absolutely harmless below those levels. That is what this change is proposing. Besides what is wrong with putting a cost on the remaining pollution that is above what the law requires? There can still be a cumulative affect not to mention we should be striving to eliminate these as much as possible. Especially when there are very successful viable alternatives being devel
    • by Immerman ( 2627577 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @10:53AM (#58636306)

      Most toxic threats can be divided into two different categories -
      1) Safe below a certain level (vitamin A, clean water, etc.) They'll still kill you if you consume too much, but below a certain threshold they're definitely safe, and even potentially beneficial.
      2) Unsafe at any level (lead, fine particulate matter, etc). No matter how little you're exposed to it'll do some damage. More will typically do more damage, and little enough may do an undetectable amount of damage, but there's no reason to believe that there's any level where no damage is done.

      • The problem is that when dealing with situation 2 you run into reality in that it's often impossible or hideously expensive to guarantee (or sometimes even measure) a particular level of exposure. The EPA guidelines indicate that drinking water shouldn't contain more lead than 15 parts per billion. Obviously only 5 parts per billion would be even better, but if the cost of ensuring that makes water 100 times more expensive, it may not be worth doing, particularly if that difference means that only 1 in 100,
      • by Shotgun ( 30919 )

        How much damage does the particulate matter do compared to not having a job in a modern economy?
        There are many trade-offs to be considered, and a regulatory body must consider them all, NPCs notwithstanding.

      • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @01:00PM (#58637238)
        Your thinking is, unfortunately, how a lot of people think of pollution - focusing on how much is "safe" so that we can try to stay within the limits of safety. That sort of binary good/bad analysis where anything which is "unsafe" is always bad, is just plain wrong. Absolute safety is for those without the balls to live in the real world. (And before you SJWs jump on me about the gonads, that quote comes from a female lead engineer at NASA [aviationquotations.com].)

        Economically, you need to approach it as a cost-benefit analysis. Yes more pollution is bad. But what is the cost of reducing it? If the economic cost of reducing it is more than the benefit of the lowered pollution, then it's just not worth reducing it. As with most things, pollution controls follow a non-linear expense curve. Reducing pollution from a large amount to a medium amount is cheap. Reducing it from a medium amount to a little amount is not so cheap. Reducing it from a little amount to a tiny amount is expensive. And reducing it from a tiny amount to zero is cost-prohibitive (we couldn't do it even if we devoted our entire economic output to it). You need to figure out the point where it no longer makes economic sense to reduce pollution further. If you make the pollution controls too strict, you end up wasting economic resources (people's productivity) for little gain. Resources which could be better spent saving lives in other ways, or improving quality of life so that life is more fulfilling even if it's cut short by pollution.

        And it's not a static target either. Technology progresses. And it progresses faster if you don't spend as many resources fighting things like pollution. That's the approach China has taken. They used to be a technological backwater, 50-100 years behind the developed world. Their government made a conscious decision to allow excess pollution in the interest of accelerating their economic development. It's helped boost their economy so they're now probably only about 10-20 years behind the developed world. They paid a heavy price for that rapid development in pollution. But now that they've pretty much caught up, they're starting to address that pollution. Their current generation will pay for that pollution in shortened lifespan. But that's just one generation which will pay, while all future generations will enjoy the benefits that come from being further along in technological progress than they would've been if not for the sacrifice of that one generation. Was it worth it? I really don't know. But neither can you say with absolute certainty that it wasn't worth it because the current generation suffered under heavy pollution all their lives.
        • Absolute safety is for those without the balls to live in the real world. (And before you SJWs jump on me about the gonads, that quote comes from a female lead engineer at NASA.)

          To be fair, Mary Shafer's favorite title is SR-71 Flying Qualities Lead Engineer. That'd be the Blackbird, the most batshit crazy airplane ever built that could actually fly.

          • by Cederic ( 9623 )

            Its flying qualities were that if you kept it moving sufficiently fast you could usually avoid the ground.

            I'm not sure that qualifies as flying.

      • Most toxic threats can be divided into two different categories -
        1) Safe below a certain level (vitamin A, clean water, etc.) They'll still kill you if you consume too much, but below a certain threshold they're definitely safe, and even potentially beneficial.
        2) Unsafe at any level (lead, fine particulate matter, etc). No matter how little you're exposed to it'll do some damage. More will typically do more damage, and little enough may do an undetectable amount of damage, but there's no reason to believe that there's any level where no damage is done.

        And the shorthand
        1) Risks not related to cancer; safe below some threshold
        2) Cancer risks; no safe threshold, risk increases with exposure

    • No safe levels means anything is justified. That's probably to counter the argument that (at least in most places in Northern Europe) the air hasn't been this clean in decades, in terms of particulates, and is still getting cleaner thanks to better filters, increased fuel economy, shutting down coal plants, and a declining popularity of Diesel cars. Especially in cities, the air used to be much, much worse 30, 50 and even 100 years ago.

      What also happened is that the norms for clean air are continuously
      • by amorsen ( 7485 )

        The air looks a lot cleaner these days. However, the concentrations of ultrafine particles are much higher. Not so many years ago, engines emitted soot. This has been largely eliminated. The higher combustion temperatures and lean-burning cycles of modern engines have unfortunately increased the amounts of ultrafine particles.

        Soot is bad enough, but the relatively large lumps cannot easily cross into the blood stream from the lungs. Ultrafine particles do not suffer from such limitations.

        On the upside, ultr

    • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @10:59AM (#58636358)

      Unlike previous Presidents Republican and Democrat, I do not trust the fact that he is at all working for the nations best interests. Changing how things are calculated is a way to ignore the problem vs. working on a solution. Normally if an administration wants to roll back environmental laws, they will just show how ineffective the laws are, and how they are just creating more harm. But for the Trump Administration they are just stating there is no problem, that the problem is just made up.
      So which brings up how did these 1400 people die.

      Air Quality/Pollution isn't an abstract idea like global warming, it is something people can smell, and see. We are working off of number on what has happened vs. projections with a degree of error.

      Ignoring a problem doesn't make it go away. And unlike running a business you just can't cut off the underperfoming areas.

      • Unlike previous Presidents Republican and Democrat, I do not trust the fact that he is at all working for the nations best interests. Changing how things are calculated is a way to ignore the problem vs. working on a solution.

        I agree with you that I don't trust this administration. But changing how things are calculated isn't a problem per se. The Obama administration made up the rules for how things were calculated. That doesn't mean they should be set in stone as the word of God. They can be wrong (in

      • So which brings up how did these 1400 people die.

        Um, "they" didn't. These are differences in projections, based on two different methods.

    • Exactly. Right now, the analysis says there is nothing magical about a certain level; as you say, "there is pretty much some of everything pretty much everywhere." What the EPA is doing is to replace a cost-benefit analysis (which balances the costs of reducing pollution against the benefits of reducing illness and death) with an analysis that says, "when the concentrations go below this arbitrary level, the risk magically becomes exactly zero."

      It's hard to do a sensible cost-benefit analysis if you assume

  • See? (Score:5, Funny)

    by JustAnotherOldGuy ( 4145623 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @10:41AM (#58636204) Journal

    And they said Trump wouldn't make things better.

    Just believe the numbers, kids, and never mind that pesky cough you get when you go outside!

    • by Mashiki ( 184564 )

      The NYT article has been rewritten multiple times without disclosure. So what's that called kids? That's right. It's the Washington Post's favorite word. "Fake news." See the archive.today caches if you really want to see. I mean it's pretty bad when you got Tim Pool ripping your asshole, then ripping your asshole for being a shitty paper, then ripping your asshole some more because you hired reporters that believe "updating" articles that fundamentally change the entire premise is a-okay. But what the [youtu.be]

  • The New Truth (Score:3, Informative)

    by cloud.pt ( 3412475 ) on Wednesday May 22, 2019 @10:44AM (#58636230)

    This is not post-truth. This is the new truth. The best way to do good politics is to bend to truth to your policy. Unfortunately that doesn't mean the policy is a good one.

    Ajit Pai already did this adeptly for net neutrality. I'm surprised this practice took so long to spread into the hindrances os Trump's pals, so he can pay tribute to his oil and polluting industry sponsors.

  • ALWAYS with the statistics! The Liar's Poker of Mathematics.

    Get a shovel and dig them up and show me all these dead people.

    • by Kohath ( 38547 )

      Are you saying you don't blindly believe politically inspired projections of the future? These other guys have practically made a religion out of belief in politicians and their prophesies of the future. Why can't you close your eyes and believe it too?

  • Journalist Tim Pool has the story of how the New York Times published fake news about this topic and then Stealth Edited to hide the error. [youtube.com] They didn't issue a correction. Stealth Editing was Winston Smith's job in "1984", wasn't it?

    If you don't watch Tim Pool, you should. He has higher viewership than CNN and MSNBC put together. Don't miss what people are talking about, watch the alternative news.

  • All these deaths are swamped by government policy interfering with or helping advancing technology advance.

    It's being pennywise pound foolish.

  • So many Republicans want to say that global warming is a sham..

    Well let's say that it is..

    That still doesn't make it okay to pollute tf out of our planet. :)

    Wish some issues were so tied to partisanship and having to choose one side or the other.

  • Can we just change the name of the organization while we're at it from Environmental Protection Agency, to Anti-Environmental Protection Agency? Seriously, the whole point of the agency is to PROTECT the ENVIRONMENT, their function is in their name. Anything that allows additional pollution to the environment pretty much goes against what it's mission is. This isn't an agency meant to help business, but to insure it keeps the air we breathe, the water we drink, the items we consume in one way or another,

  • As Los Angeles has cleaned up it's air quality, the rate of childhood asthma has gone way done... or a Trump would call it, "A Chinese conspiracy to damage our economic system!"
  • by Anonymous Coward

    I am generally a centrist, politically independent. I am not a Trump fan, nor am I a tree-hugger. My primary concern with the environment is that we all need it to function, so we can all live and be healthy.

    But every time I read a headline about Trump's EPA, all I can think is, "Isn't their name the Environmental PROTECTION Agency?" When did they all sell their souls to political bias and completely forget their purpose for existing? IT'S IN YOUR NAME in case you forgot.

    Must we all be poisoned and get

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