Chicago's Experiment In Predictive Policing Isn't Working (theverge.com) 191
The U.S. will phase out private prisons, a move made possible by fewer and shorter sentences for drug offenses, reports the BBC. But when it comes to reducing arrests for violent crimes, police officers in Chicago found themselves resorting ineffectively to a $2 million algorithm which ultimately had them visiting people before any crime had been committed. schwit1 quotes Ars Technica: Struggling to reduce its high murder rate, the city of Chicago has become an
incubator for experimental policing techniques. Community policing, stop and frisk, "interruption" tactics --- the city has tried many strategies. Perhaps most controversial and promising has been the city's futuristic "heat list" -- an algorithm-generated list identifying people most likely to be involved in a shooting.
The hope was that the list would allow police to provide social services to people in danger, while also preventing likely shooters from picking up a gun. But a new report from the RAND Corporation shows nothing of the sort has happened. Instead, it indicates that the list is, at best, not even as effective as a most wanted list. At worst, it unnecessarily targets people for police attention, creating a new form of profiling.
The police argue they've updated the algorithm and improved their techniques for using it. But the article notes that the researchers began following the "heat list" when it launched in 2013, and "found that the program has saved no lives at all."
The hope was that the list would allow police to provide social services to people in danger, while also preventing likely shooters from picking up a gun. But a new report from the RAND Corporation shows nothing of the sort has happened. Instead, it indicates that the list is, at best, not even as effective as a most wanted list. At worst, it unnecessarily targets people for police attention, creating a new form of profiling.
The police argue they've updated the algorithm and improved their techniques for using it. But the article notes that the researchers began following the "heat list" when it launched in 2013, and "found that the program has saved no lives at all."
Bring in Spielberg and Cruise! (Score:1)
Sounds like something out of Minority Report. That incidentally backfired too.
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Responsibility. (Score:5, Interesting)
Maybe the enterprise of saving lives shouldn't be put entirely on the police? Obviously they have a role to play, but when we are talking about prevention, other institutions also have a huge role to play.
For example, many killings are the result of mental health problems that are going untreated. Part of the problem there is that the necessary care can be expensive. So....let's do something about that. What does the government-funded health care landscape look like these days? And what about educational grants (NOT LOANS) for mental health practitioners?
There is also still a strong social stigma against seeking mental health. Nobody is embarrassed to say something like "My arm was broke so I went to see the doctor," but the moment someone utters the phrase "mental health" everyone thinks of him as crazy, weak, and pathetic. This is ridiculous, and we need to put more social engineering to the task of fixing that (for example, a lot more television and movies can include scenes and dialogue implicating that the popular characters are seeing mental health professionals...and the attitude is that this is just a given that normal people do this sort of thing on a routine basis).
There are, of course, also economic motivators for murder. If poor people are being driven to these extremes by poverty, then why isn't one of the richest countries in the world doing something to address that? Why do we continue to abide the existence of charities that spend nearly all the donated money on their own staff and get no effective results? Why aren't we making more use of proven-effective programs like microlending?
There is quite a lot that can be done, and the police can't be left alone to do it all.
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Maybe the enterprise of saving lives shouldn't be put entirely on the police? Obviously they have a role to play, but when we are talking about prevention, other institutions also have a huge role to play.
For example, many killings are the result of mental health problems that are going untreated. Part of the problem there is that the necessary care can be expensive. So....let's do something about that. What does the government-funded health care landscape look like these days? And what about educational grants (NOT LOANS) for mental health practitioners?
There is also still a strong social stigma against seeking mental health. Nobody is embarrassed to say something like "My arm was broke so I went to see the doctor," but the moment someone utters the phrase "mental health" everyone thinks of him as crazy, weak, and pathetic. This is ridiculous, and we need to put more social engineering to the task of fixing that (for example, a lot more television and movies can include scenes and dialogue implicating that the popular characters are seeing mental health professionals...and the attitude is that this is just a given that normal people do this sort of thing on a routine basis).
There is quite a lot that can be done, and the police can't be left alone to do it all.
Keep Sound Minds [keepsoundminds.org] is trying to reduce the stigma of mental health issues and work toward policies that help people get help before damage is done.
Re:Responsibility. (Score:5, Insightful)
There is also still a strong social stigma against seeking mental health. Nobody is embarrassed to say something like "My arm was broke so I went to see the doctor," but the moment someone utters the phrase "mental health" everyone thinks of him as crazy, weak, and pathetic.
There is a big difference between going to a surgeon to fix a broken arm and going to a psychiatrist for a mental illness. A broken arm does not lead to the police coming to your house to take your guns. Depending on the conditions of the mental illness in Illinois the government will revoke your FOID for one year, five years, or the rest of your life for seeking treatment for a mental illness. Getting a FOID is difficult and expensive. Getting a firearm to protect yourself, your home, and your family is also difficult and expensive. Being disarmed in your own home is not pleasant if one lacks the means to move to a better neighborhood or one is bound by some (real or imagined) obligation to stay put.
You want to see crime go down and people get treatment for mental illness? Then get rid of the laws that disarm people and leave them vulnerable to the thugs that the police cannot do anything about. The police can only come when called, they cannot be there every time there is a crime, as much as they might want to be there. When a crime is committed there are certain to be two people present, the perpetrator and the victim. Let's allow the victims to be armed so that they can defend themselves.
Illinois was the last state in the federation to lift the ban on concealed carry of weapons. Even though they are technically available the process to get the license is lengthy and expensive, something not everyone that need them can afford. The license alone costs $150. Then there is the required training, photograph, fingerprints, and probably more that have to be paid for. The time to do all of this is likely out of the question for the average blue collar worker.
This brings up the question on why Illinois even needs a permit to carry a concealed weapon. Would you believe me if I said six states do not require permits to carry a concealed weapon? Well, you shouldn't because the real number is more like eleven, depending on how one defines permitless carry. Carrying a weapon in the open, not concealed, does not require a permit in 25 or 30 states.
Where is all of this crime happening? There seems to be a strong correlation between restrictions on the carry of self defense tools and violent crimes. There is also a strong correlation between Democrat governance and crime. Think about that the next time you vote.
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There seems to be a strong correlation between restrictions on the carry of self defense tools and violent crimes
Unlike, for instance, the relationship between mental health issues and use of guns against human targets?
Oh, wait. Does that completely wreck your entire argument?
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There is also a strong correlation between Democrat governance and crime. Think about that the next time you vote.
You had me up to there. It's actually more that 1) There's a strong correlation between population density and Democratic governance (and its emphasis on shared services), and 2) There's a strong correlation between population density and crime. Might as well say something like "ice cream causes violent crime [rationalwiki.org]" or something. Yes, you said "correlation", but "causation" was strongly hinted.
Re:Responsibility. (Score:4, Informative)
If poor people are being driven to these extremes by poverty, then why isn't one of the richest countries in the world doing something to address that?
This is an insult to poor people. Like, "Oh, they are poor, they can't help themselves from murdering." Being a former poor person myself, I spit in your face. When was the last time you actually helped a poor person instead of saying, "Oh, someone should help them."
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> There is also still a strong social stigma against seeking mental health. Nobody is
> embarrassed to say something like "My arm was broke so I went to see the doctor,"
> but the moment someone utters the phrase "mental health" everyone thinks of
> him as crazy, weak, and pathetic.
Problem... if you go see a psychiatrist once, you become virtually unemployable in many sought-after jobs. This has to change before people will consider seeing a psychiatrist.
Unfortunately, "big data" has ways of findin
Let's summarize (Score:4, Funny)
The failed experiment, called Chicago, just doesn't work. We have all known that for decades
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works fine in NYC and other large cities.
works fine in most of the rest of the world.
why is that?
could it be because those places have largely uniform laws across large areas, whereas Chicago is surrounded by locales without strict gun control?
nah. couldn't be.
Cops looking for an easy way to police (Score:5, Insightful)
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No, this country is severely overcopped. What we need is fewer police.
I think a 90% reduction would be a good start.
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Maybe just get rid of all cops, and increase the number of lawyers.
Hell, while we're at it, we can change the qualification to become a lawyer too: Memorize the dictionary. All you need to know are more words than others, and BAM, you're a lawyer.
In order to become a judge, you must own at least 2 hunting camps.
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Maybe they should give guns to, and deputize everyone in these ghettos that you're speaking of. That way they could all just shoot and/or arrest each other. Last men standing get fired from the force. Maybe that'll reboot the ghettos.
No. Even I can't tell if that's sarcasm or not.
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Actually what would be best would be spending more resources in combating the economic and social issues that are causing the crime to arise in the first place. Dollars spent on social programs reduce far more crime than dollars spent on police.
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Not as far as I have seen, very few of the incidents were "innocent" civilians. When you commit a crime, expecting to be able to resist arrest won't get you where you want to be.
Broken Windows Policing (Score:5, Insightful)
Enforce the laws on minor crimes, and major crimes go down. You don't have to be a hardass, or pick on anyone in particular, just enforce the common, everyday laws that help keep things working.
We know this works.
When people notice that nobody is enforcing the little stuff, they start assuming that they can get away with the larger crimes - and they're usually right.
The problem is that, after a few years of it working, everyone relaxes and thinks "hey, crime is down, we can slack off a bit," and it's okay, for a while. Then things start slowly getting worse again, and the "corrective measures" tend to be away from the policies that were in force a few years before, because "they stopped working."
Re:Broken Windows Policing (Score:4, Insightful)
The actual solution is to not have small crimes. If it's not important, don't waste fucking resources on it. About half of what cops arrest people for, they should be referring them to social workers instead.
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Another solution is to make fines be a percentage of income, with perhaps a small amount of community service replacing them for the unemployed.
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Re:Broken Windows Policing (Score:5, Insightful)
The actual solution is to not have small crimes.
Once you eliminate victimless crimes (drugs and prostitution), what exactly are small crimes? I'd say legalize drugs and prostitution, enforcement of prohibition on those items has been a disaster for civil liberties.
Is the cluster of "civil order" crimes, like not blocking the sidewalk, lurking, panhandling, loitering? I can sort of agree, seeing as they can (and probably are) highly selectively enforced. But having been in downtown areas where they were actually happening, I find myself wishing they were being vigorously enforced. People who crowd the sidewalk basically looking for a confrontation, aggressive panhandling, and so on make being in urban areas unpleasant. I want to be able to walk on the public sidewalk unimpeded by people loitering, especially people who use hostility and aggressive behavior to claim the space or challenge passersby.
After that, I don't know what you'd consider a small crime. Most crimes involving private properly may be small by some dollar-denominated measure, but to the people involved they were real hassles -- a bike stolen, sunglasses stolen from a car, etc.
On the whole, though, I'd say broken windows policing makes some kind of common sense by enforcing laws that mandate good civil public behavior and respect for private property. Not doing so seems to breed a lack of respect for civil order and make enforcement seem more selective than it already does.
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I'd go along with decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana, but other drugs would need a more intensive intervention. The financial pressures of drug addiction lead to more destructive crimes. Non-violent drug offenders could get probation/enforced rehab instead of prison for small amount possession. Prostitution is usually not a victimless crime, prostitutes typically are in an involuntary servitude arrangement with a pimp, so the prostitute is the victim. Maybe when Hookers get Health/Dental coverage, work
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The "financial pressures" of drug addiction are the result of the risks of drug dealing being built into the price of illegal drugs, not the material price of drugs.
I bought 150 mg (total, 30 x 5 mg) oxycodone for $6.32 when I last had a prescription. That price is so low that the pharmacy doesn't even charge you the copay, they just sell it at the retail price. And that retail price has all the high costs associated with an insane amount of tracking and regulation of a schedule II drug built into it, inc
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There should be no laws criminalizing mere possession of any substance intended for consumption, in a society that respects bodily autonomy, period. Possession with intent to distribute, and especially for commercial purposes, is another matter.
Prostitution is involuntarily precisely because it's illegal in and of itself - since prostitutes cannot resort to police and courts to have the same protection from the society as other occupations. In countries which have properly legalized that industry, like New
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If prostitution is legalized, the slavery aspect disappears. When the enslaved person has the ability to go to the police, the ability to enslave them disappears. As it is right now, the prostitutes get arrested just for being prostitutes, even if unwillingly, so they fear the police.
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He shouldn't have broken the law...then fought being arrested for no reason.He chose his path, trying to make it out to be a minor thing when it wasn't is silly.
Resisting arrest is a serious crime for good reason, a big guy like that fighting the police will result in a significant reaction.
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Under the broken windows theory of policing, vandalism and graffiti are the two primary "small crimes" which they advocate cracking down on.
Re:Broken Windows Policing (Score:4, Interesting)
Maybe the president could start enforcing the gun laws he has the power to enforce, instead of pushing for new restrictions on law abiding citizens?
In 2010, out of 48,321 felons and fugitives who attempted to illegally purchase firearms, the Department of Justice prosecuted only 44 of them. https://youtu.be/06wJ50p6rMs [youtu.be]
That's 48,321 open and shut cases of felons and fugitives swearing in writing on their ATF Form 4473 that they can legally posses a gun, when they couldn't. The Justice Department gladly allows 99.91% of the prohibited felons who attempt to buy a gun from a federally licensed dealer simply walk free. Right there are 48,321 minor crimes that could have been enforced that weren't.
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I didn't know we had two sets of books.
By the way, in the Chicago Manual, "law abiding" as a modifier is written "law-abiding", so I'm already suspecting you're one of those selective law abiders (to hell with the Nazi rules), who sometimes defers keeping the gun safe locked, and yet you probably don't think you should go straight to jail. After all, what could possibly deter B&E better than an unlocked gun safe?
Crime Gun Theft [duke.edu]
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Get your racist, bullshit trash theories out of here and maybe join the 21st century. That retarded idea was old and busted twenty years ago
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As I understand, there's a Catch-22 associated with the ATF background check: from what I've been told, the only way to see if the background check thinks you are prohibited from owning a gun is to submit the paperwork for a background check. And since no gun shop is going to submit the paperwork if you aren't going to buy a gun, or if you say "No I can't possess a gun", the only way to check is to try and buy a gun, submit the paperwork, and see if it comes back negative.
While I agree that a 1-in-1000 pro
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If you have been convicted of a felony, it is illegal for you to posses a firearm. You know if you have been convicted of a felony, and felons almost automatically go through the parole system and are counselled on the illegality of them possessing a firearm. There may be an outlier cases where someone was mistakenly put on a list or had a conviction over-turned without being removed, but the vast majority of those failing background check were aware they were prohibited from weapons possession.
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Maybe the president could start enforcing the gun laws he has the power to enforce, instead of pushing for new restrictions on law abiding citizens?
Because that's what liberals do, they make a grandstand play, pass a law with a feel-good title, catch some news coverage for trying to solve a problem, then become derelict on enforcement because it might actually reduce some minority on minority crime. If you reduce minority on minority crime, the minorities might become self-sufficient and tell the liberals to go to hell with their plantation mentality.
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If the DoJ virtually never prosecutes violations of gun laws, why is it a big deal that they are trying to create new gun laws?
By definition a criminal does not follow the law. New laws only affect the law abading. Correct? SO new laws do not affect criminals one bit and only restrict the freedom of the law abiding. OR create NEW criminals who will not follow the new laws.
Re:Broken Windows Policing (Score:4, Insightful)
Citation? And one that doesn't simply show crime numbers reducing, because reduced lead in the environment explains the reduction
Let's face it, even the police don't believe this. The police are able to get away with misconduct with insignificant or no consequences.
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You're talking about the old "broken windows" theory.
It's been discredited, of course. It doesn't actually accomplish anything other than locking up poor people, and it's been used in a very disproportionally racist manner.
When you do a comparison of crime rates in cities that used it and cities that didn't, both have seen a decrease in crime. Probably the most likely reason has been the removal of lead from gasoline, significantly reducing the degree of low-level lead poisoning.
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The law as written is not racist. The way the law was applied was assessed and determined to be racist - and that's the old fashioned use of the term, not the new-age internet one.
The races of those involved is entirely incidental, as is the relative percentages-by-race of those involved.
You have a published paper on why we should entirely disregard race when assessing the implementation of the policy? Just that 'entirely incidental' implies there are other factors at play, and that those negate the racial biases. This would contradict other research.
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It's a common tactic, possibly well-meaning, possibly to deflect criticism of actual racism.
The old literacy test for voting laws weren't generally racist as written. But they were certainly racist as implemented.
Today's racism is (or was, until Trump) more subtle. But it's certainly there, and while individual cops may not be racists, the police taken as a whole in this country certainly are.
Re:Broken Windows Policing (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem in any kind of engineering -- and we're talking about social engineering here -- is that everything has its drawbacks.
The foundation of modern policing is a focus on two functions: bringing people to justice, and keeping the peace. You can unquestionably obtain gains in controlling certain kinds of disorder by adding a third function to he police: acting as an instrument behavioral control on the populace. The drawback is that this puts police into a position of habitual conflict with populations they serve, undermining the Peelian principle that the police are the people, and the people the police.
Over time the police begin to be viewed less as public servants and more like an occupying army. Since this process takes time, we ought to be skeptical of short term results that show improvements in statistical measures of public order. Think of public respect and cooperation for the police as a kind of social capital. If in toting up progress you ignore the capital you're spending you're not getting a true picture.
Public cooperation has been the foundation of successful policing for almost two hundred years, since Robert Peel established the Metropolitan Police in 1829. We should think long and hard about abandoning, or even tinkering with that model.
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Except for the part where most (all?) studies that measure the effects of broken windows policing don't find any positive result.
Now, it gets repeated a lot. And it has a compelling (if, based on evidence, incorrect) rationalle. But that only "works" like Reaganomics.
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We know this works.
No, we really don't. Whether or not this works remains a matter of controversy, and there is little unambiguous evidence to support either side of the debate.
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no we don't know this works.
what we do know is that it quickly becomes "lock up non white and or poor people".
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Most HR departments in businesses want to see an -arrest- record, not -convictions-.
[citation needed]
Actually such a request is specifically illegal in many jurisdictions.
Random? (Score:2)
The algorithm is some random picking in the felon list!
So long as we're trying such elaborate measures... (Score:2, Interesting)
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From a European point of view, from someone who has no idea what the local laws are in Chicago, it sounds like you're encouraging allowing vigilante justice.
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The local laws in Chicago are some of the most restrictive in the USA. Basically, it reduces to "no guns for you unless you're politically connected".
And yet, the bad guys still seem to get guns with no real issues. Perhaps because if you're a criminal, you see nothing particularly wrong with breaking the gun laws, but who knows?
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The policy could theoretically work if Chicago could keep people from driving to Hammond and Gary and buying firearms. They can't so it's probably doing more harm than good.
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My sister and her husband live in Illinois and they went out of state to buy a firearm, not Indiana but Iowa. They had to provide ID, submit to a background check, and wait 24 hours for delivery as required by Illinois law because they are legally Illinois residents. Going out of state does not allow a person to bypass federal law, or even many state laws.
The firearm they purchased had to meet the laws of Illinois on how they define an "assault weapon". I don't know what would happen if they tried to b
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I find it funny how some people blame Chicago's violence problems on other cities with more lax laws. The interesting thing is how other cities with more guns generally have LESS CRIME.
So, we have two cities: one with high crime, and one with low crime. Obviously, the solution is to take the laws of the failing city and force those on the city that is doing OK. Yeah, right. This is like taking a test and cheating off of the dumbest kid in the class. If I were running a business, I would want to take bu
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You should look up gun-related deaths per capita in the US and in various European countries, then try to apply your logic again. :-)
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Another example of VERY flawed logic.
Suppose that I had a relative who was killed by a red car. I go on a crusade saying that all red cars are dangerous and get the laws changed -- red cars are now illegal. After 10 years, the number of red-car-involved deaths effectively drops to zero. So, I can now claim success and that taking red cars off of the streets has made the streets safer.
My forcing murderers to use different tools does not make them stop being murderers.
Other countries also have different am
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No the principal is if everyone is able to defend themselves, up to and including deadly force if necessary, violent criminals would be more wary of plying their trade. Years ago Miami Florida was known as the murder capital of the US, as a result Florida loosened their concealed weapons laws and crime went down considerably. It got to the point where the majority of people being robbed were people driving rental cars, the criminals knew that tourist who flew into Florida would be unarmed. Even now rental c
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This kind of primitive, nonsensical outburst of illogical rage is exactly why Americans shouldn't be allowed to have firearms at all. :-)
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they should allow law-abiding citizens to do it themselves
I support the right of people to bear arms. That said; most of the violence in Chicago is gang vs gang. And from their point of view, they are protecting their neighborhood or favorite dealing street corner from their rivals. Things that they value as much as you value your family and home. It's a culture thing, and until you can change that and give these people something worthwhile (in our eyes) to defend, things will keep going on as they are.
The targets aren't fixed points. (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem with predicting where to go to stop crimes is that many of the crimes in Chicago are gang related, instead of property related. Houses to be robbed don't move, but rival gang members can be found anywhere. Predictive algorithms assume fixed targets.
If there was a real crackdown on Gangs, crime would decrease for a while, but I think that too many bribes are preventing that from happening. It would be far better to legalize drugs, defunding the gangs.
Of course, as a privileged white male from the suburbs, I could be wrong.
Re:The targets aren't fixed points. (Score:5, Insightful)
Once upon a time, we tried a "noble experiment" that we called Prohibition. For Chicago, as for most of the nation, the result was vastly increased crime, and gun battles in the streets (remember "the Night Chicago Died", anyone?).
Eventually, we got rid of that particular notion, and thing settled down.
And then we decided we needed to Do Something (about the recreational chemicals of choice of certain, shall we say, darker-skinned citizens) and now we have The War On Drugs.
So far, the War on Drugs (AKA Prohibition II) has had pretty much exactly the same effects as Prohibition.
So, let's try a really bold experiment! End the War On Drugs (Prohibition II), and see if it has the same effects that ending Prohibition had. After all, we can always restart the War On Drugs if ending it doesn't fix the problems.
And, what the Hell, it just might work to let people drink/smoke/inject whatever they want, rather than trying to be Mommy to every citizen....
Re:The targets aren't fixed points. (Score:4, Insightful)
Corruption drains money from legitimate economic activity, which ultimately depresses wages, reduces job opportunities, and increases prices. The poor are the most impacted by these consequences, and it helps keep them poor and in ghettos. I'm not saying this is the root cause of all their problems, but neither is the War on Drugs. The vast majority of problems have multiple causes. Afghanistan doesn't have an opium production problem simply because the price of heroin is high, but also because its economy is so shot it's nearly impossible to make a living any other way.
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> it has philosophical incompatibilities between it and the concept of democracy because of the loss of free will due to addiction, which need to be resolved
I'll resolve this for you now, the best I can, which is that philosophical free will simply does not exist. There is nothing in physics that gives rise to free will, we are deterministic (though chaotic and unpredictable) bioelectrochemical machines. Free will is merely an illusion. We have no more free choice than a planet does to orbit the sun, or
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Yeah... How many cokeheads in withdrawl have you had to deal with?
Lots. It's part of my job.
It's real fun when they keep screaming at you in a paranoid delusion.
That's not how a coke addict in withdrawal behaves. I'm wondering now if *you've* ever seen one.
How many people have you tried to take care of who are having a bad trip on LSD?
Not that many, because LSD isn't a commonly used drug in Chicago, as far as I know. It's out there, but I would suppose it represents less than 0.01% of the drug use in this town. How many have *you* taken care of?
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"Maybe you should see a few of those things up close before deciding drugs are ok, mmmkay?"
Forget about whether or not "drugs are ok". How about looking at it in terms of a government claiming that it has the authority to regulate your personal consumption habits? Does government own your body or do YOU own your body? Drugs may be "bad", but what gives government the just power to tell you what you can and can't inhale, imbibe, snort or inject?
The number of opiate ODs would definitely go down in an envir
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Re:The targets aren't fixed points. (Score:5, Insightful)
> If there was a real crackdown on Gangs, crime would decrease for a while,
We actually had that once but it was too successful so it was stopped. WTF!?
Scroll down to 7. The Harvard Man of How America Lost the War on Drugs [rollingstone.com] to see how the power of Name & Shame worked.
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Say it isn't so (Score:4, Funny)
"Chicago's Experiment In Predictive Policing Isn't Working"
Oh, so predicting the future doesn't work?
Damn, who could have guessed that prophesying is a tricky business? Who could have foreseen that? :)
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No one could have foreseen that because that would be prophesying which is a tricky business.
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False certainty (Score:2)
It is simply not possible to know whether this technique is working or not. This is an alternative histories problem, and you have to choose between a bunch of flawed options to detect effectiveness. Each option is so flawed as to render the certainty suggested by the headline inappropriate.
Meta-predictions (Score:2)
Predictions about predictions about crime
Predictive policing isn't working? -- no one would have seen that coming!
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When I was in Chicago, in the "Miracle Mile" area a year or two ago, I don't see any crime (Unless you count pan-handling), but I saw a beat cop on every corner and a roving patrol in between; seems predicting Tourists in over-price hotels and restaurants would attract criminals and a high density of police would deter them seems to work.
This is bad, still not as bad as Honan Square... (Score:5, Interesting)
https://www.theguardian.com/us... [theguardian.com]
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Mod parent up.
I am disgusted by the US media that they have not picked up this story. It's an absolute disgrace, both by the police and the media.
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Mod parent up.
I am disgusted by the US media that they have not picked up this story. It's an absolute disgrace, both by the police and the media.
Well Obama's Friend and former Administration member, Rom Emanuel, is mayor so It's unlikely either He or Hillary are too anxious for a lot of press on this.
Clickbait summary (Score:4, Interesting)
The summary leaves out some important information that would tend to blunt the hyperbole it's trying to drive home. From the article:
It stressed that RAND "evaluated a very early version" of the list, "which has since evolved greatly and has been fully integrated with the Department’s management accountability process." It also points out that "the prediction model discussed in the report is the very early, initial model (Version 1), developed in August, 2012. We are now using Version 5, which is significantly improved."
A failing grade on the performance of a four-year-old version of the software, (and a four-year-old set of policies and procedures for using same), is hardly a reason to get all hot 'n' bothered, when what really matters is how the program is working today. It's news, and it may be significant, but it tells us nothing about the current effectiveness of the program in question. There are valid moral, ethical, and possibly legal issues around whether such a program should even exist, and whether the police are the right ones to be managing it - but that conversation shouldn't take place in the context of a FUD-driven summary of an article based largely on very stale data.
Misleading too (Score:2)
a move made possible by fewer and shorter sentences for drug offenses,
The linked article does mention reduced sentences for drug related crimes. But it also makes it clear that drug related crime is a very minor factor in the decision to get away from private prisons.
Re:perhaps a buyback program? (Score:5, Insightful)
So, I rob a gun shop in the next State, in the sure knowledge that the Chicago PD will act as my fence? Yah, that's a good idea.
Note, by the by, that many places in the USA (basically all of them, since Chicago has one of the worst crime problems in the USA, and some of the most restrictive gun laws) get by just fine without worrying so much about guns in private hands.
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Didn't you notice OP's "no questions asked"?
If the police are going to run serial numbers, that's going to convince people not to sell their guns to the cops. Which means it'll work like most "gun buy-backs" - they get a lot of crap (like a WW1-era rifle) instead of the guns they want to get (the ones the gang-bangers are using).
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Bull.
Chicago does not have one of the worst crime problems in the country, regardless of you idiots constantly trying to push that myth.
Most years it not even the top 20 let alone top 10.
Cities with higher homicide rates than Chicago in 2014
All numbers represent homicides per 100,000 people.
St. Louis, MO 49.9
Detroit, MI 43.5
New Orleans, LA 38.7
Jackson, MS 35.4
Baltimore City, MD 33.8
Newark, NJ 33.3
Birmingham , AL 24.5
Buffalo, NY 23.2
Baton Rouge, LA 23.1
Pittsburgh, PA 22.4
North Charleston, SC 21.8
Little Rock, AR 21.7
Memphis, TN 21.4
Atlanta, GA 20.5
Cincinnati, OH 20.2
San Bernardino, CA 20.0
Oakland, CA 19.5
Miami, FL 19.2
Richmond, VA 18.9
Dayton, OH 18.9
Inglewood, CA 17.9
Montgomery, AL 17.5
South Bend, IN 16.9
Kansas City, KS 16.8
Kansas City, MO 16.7
Paterson, NJ 16.4
Stockton, CA 16.4
Cleveland, OH 16.2
Washington, DC 15.9
Philadelphia, PA 15.9
Wilmington, NC 15.9
Indianapolis, IN 15.8
Chattanooga, TN 15.5
Hartford, CT 15.2
Chicago, IL 15.1
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Note that I did not use the phrase "gun homicide rate" in descrbing Chicago. There's a reason for that.
Note also that "gun homicide rate" and "crime rate" are not synonymous.
Note, finally, that the 15.1/100K you mention is well over twice the national average....
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Gun buyback programs have been tried for years. Is there any statistical evidence that they work? I haven't seen any and I doubt it. These buyback programs just give thieves more cause to break into houses looking for guns to steal.
If you want to reduce the gun violence you have to get rid of the drug dealers and gangs. Good luck with that when inner city young men see those as the only options to get ahead, and we allow both types to come freely across our southern border to spread their control.
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What about people that steal guns from their elderly neighbor? Are we going to have my tax money going toward buying that gun too? How is that not creating an incentive for more crime? This "kid", is he over 18 years old? If not then it is illegal for this "kid" to possess the gun without adult supervision. Does this "kid", assuming he lives in Illinois or state with similar gun laws, have a Firearm Owners Identification Card? How is this "kid" going to carry the gun to the taxpayer funded compensated
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How is that possible - if 50% of all crimes are committed by black people, less than 50% remains for each of the dozen or so other ethnic minority groups or whites in the US. Additionally 100%? Look at a map of convicted sex offenders and they're pretty evenly spread between black, white, Hispanic and other neighborhoods. Sex offenses are pretty evenly spread across populations because pretty much all men are attracted to pubescent females, it's a rather primitive reflex.
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Because you're assuming, incorrectly, that blacks commit 50% of all crimes.
Further, I didn't say sex offenders, I said child molesters and child rapists. They are almost all exclusively white.
Keep trying to twist reality to fit your warped views all you want, it won't happen.
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Percentage of total child abusers:
White 51%
African American 25%
Hispanic 15%
American Indian/Alaska Natives 2%
Asian/Pacific Islanders 1%
Yeah, exclusively a white problem. Again, fits the demographic and other criminal curves.
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Percentage of total child abusers: ...
The term "child abuser" isn't a term I usually associate with crime reporting data. A citation would be nice here; otherwise we will have to assume it's an emotional appeal form one of those "Non-profit advocacy groups" with an 85% overhead.
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Aww, butthurt much? Don't like reality slapping you in the face?
Deal with it.
Re:Seems stupid... (Score:5, Informative)
Stop lying, although I know you find that hard.
http://www.sarsonline.org/resources-stats/reports-laws-statics
52% of rapists are white, 83.5% of the population is white. .62 for whites, 2.9 for non whites)
Therefore non whites are over 4.5 times as likely to be a rapist.
(the normalised numbers are
That is on top of the estimates that rape is estimated over 5 TIMES less likely to be reported in non white communities.
None of which is good, but those are the facts.
All rape is bad, very very bad. Misusing statistics to focus on the wrong people is just as bad - you are disrespecting
the victims by trying to use their suffering for your own political purposes.
Re:Seems stupid... (Score:4, Interesting)
None of which is good, but those are the facts.
I generally agree with your post and share a dislike for misinterpreted statistic. However I think It's also important to understand that the raw data itself however empirical is quite fallible and cannot be trusted as hard evidence, the gathering of raw data is often as mistreated as the analysis. So referring to them as "facts" (perhaps not what you really meant) borders on 2nd order ignorance in my mind, they are indicators that even after correct analysis are open to interpretation and should be weighted based on the source of data.
Re:Seems stupid... (Score:4, Insightful)
52% of rapists are white
No. 52% of convicted rapists may be white, but conviction rates vary widely by race even for the same crimes. A white teenage date-rapist is much more likely to "get away with it" than a black guy.
83.5% of the population is white.
Wrong. Whites are about 72% of the population. This isn't 1960.
None of which is good, but those are the facts.
Yup. Other than being wildly inaccurate and misleading, those are indeed the "facts".
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you have proof of your assertion about white vs. black teen date-rapists.
Black ELEMENTARY school kids have a slang about "talking a girl into the bushes", taking her somewhere for molesting and/or rape out of view of the teachers.
Maybe black rape is more prevalent and at earlier age....
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you have proof of your assertion about white vs. black teen date-rapists.
There is no such thing as "proof" in the social sciences, but if you want evidence, then you can start here [wikipedia.org] and follow the links. Blacks are discriminated against at every step of the process: they are more likely than whites to be arrested for comparable crimes, they are more likely to be prosecuted, and once convicted, they receive harsher sentences.
Maybe black rape is more prevalent and at earlier age....
Or maybe it isn't. You have provided no evidence either way.
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I see no evidence or stats there regarding teenage date-rape frequency.
Let's just say you made nonsense up without any basis in fact.
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Does anyone have the statistics on corporate and other "white collar" crime? I hypothesise that the racial (and gender!) disparity is even more marked there.
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sometimes the innocent do get caught up in the gun fights
Teach marksmanship in high school.
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No, that's what they tried.
This experiment is a failure, and is causing real-world harm.
The best thing to do is delete the data and stop collecting more. Sometimes a hard drive wipe really is the best thing to do.
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I love how you leave out cities like San Fran, NYC, Portland...liberal as hell, safest cities in the land, low debt, low crime, long life expectancies, ranked among best places to live.
Oh and you also left out Republican "success stories" like Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Bakersfield....or hell, just the entire states of KS and OK, dumpster fires of debt and poor planning cause they keep cutting taxes regardless of annual consecutive budget failures.
And especially love the way you also want to ignore that ma