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Stats Crime Government

'Moneyball' Approach Reduces Crime In New York City 218

HughPickens.com writes The NYT reports that NY County District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.'s most significant initiative has been to transform, through the use of data, the way district attorneys fight crime. "The question I had when I came in was, Do we sit on our hands waiting for crime to tick up, or can we do something to drive crime lower?" says Vance. "I wanted to develop what I call intelligence-driven prosecution." When Vance became DA in 2009, it was glaringly evident that assistant D.A.s fielding the 105,000-plus cases a year in Manhattan seldom had enough information to make nuanced decisions about bail, charges, pleas or sentences. They were narrowly focused on the facts of cases in front of them, not on the people committing the crimes. They couldn't quickly sort minor delinquents from irredeemably bad apples. They didn't know what havoc defendants might be wreaking in other boroughs.
Vance divided Manhattan's 22 police precincts into five areas and assigned a senior assistant D.A. and an analyst to map the crime in each area. CSU staff members met with patrol officers, detectives and Police Department field intelligence officers and asked police commanders to submit a list of each precinct's 25 worst offenders — so-called crime drivers, whose "incapacitation by the criminal-justice system would have a positive impact on the community's safety." Seeded with these initial cases, the CSU built a searchable database that now includes more than 9,000 chronic offenders (PDF), virtually all of whom have criminal records. A large percentage are recidivists who have been repeatedly convicted of grand larceny, one of the top index crimes in Manhattan, but the list also includes active gang members, people whom the D.A. considers "uncooperative witnesses," and a fluctuating number of violent "priority targets," which currently stands at 81. "These are people we want to know about if they are arrested," says Kerry Chicon. "We are constantly adding, deleting, editing and updating the intelligence in the Arrest Alert System. If someone gets out of a gang, or goes to prison for a long time, or moves out of the city or the state, or ages out of being a focus for us, or dies, we edit the system accordingly — we do that all the time."

"It's the 'Moneyball' approach to crime," says Chauncey Parker. "The tool is data; the benefit, public safety and justice — whom are we going to put in jail? If you have 10 guys dealing drugs, which one do you focus on? The assistant district attorneys know the rap sheets, they have the police statements like before, but now they know if you lift the left sleeve you'll find a gang tattoo and if you look you'll see a scar where the defendant was once shot in the ankle. Some of the defendants are often surprised we know so much about them."
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'Moneyball' Approach Reduces Crime In New York City

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  • by Kohath ( 38547 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @12:22PM (#48523757)

    I would guess there's relatively little crime within a block of the police station. Police should create a mobile platform and move the police stations to where the crime happens every few weeks or months.

    • by Adriax ( 746043 )

      How? Huge balloons anchored to the station building?
      Lift off like a terran barracks and plunk down where needed to churn out cops?

      • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 04, 2014 @12:35PM (#48523877)

        What might work in high-density cities in similar to what you see in Japanese cities - small police offices on corners within a certain spread of city blocks, so there's at least one officer on call for any given neighborhood. I live by a police substation in my city, and I can attest that it has made me more diligent about avoiding minor traffic offenses, and it likely helps their response time (I live in what is admittedly not a very good neighborhood).

        • by morgauxo ( 974071 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:55PM (#48524671)

          I used to live in an apartment complex where one of the other buildings had one of it's rooms converted into a mini police station. It eas great! Very quiet, nothing ever happened. The place had a bad past (the reason for the station) and a horrible reputation. we couldn't even get anyone to deliver pizza there! After I was there for a few years the city cut back the police force in order to spend money on it's parks.The mini station was closed. Immediately the car break-ins started! We moved out at the end of that lease. They did make the parks pretty nice though...

      • Just seize and building they want and move in.
      • by Kohath ( 38547 )

        2-3 specially outfitted RVs that can all park in the highest crime area. Add a couple cars.

        • by Adriax ( 746043 )

          The NYPD has more than 34,000 uniforms and 8,800 cars across 77 precincts. Shifting even 1/3rd of a precinct into a mobile base would take a wee bit more than a couple RVs and some street side parking. Then you add in increased utility bills since RVs have a fraction of the insulation and much less thermal mass inside. And RV replacement bills from broken walls and whatnot (even the external walls are thin, and not exactly easy to repair).

          No, I think structural anchors, massive ballons, and fusion powered t

          • by Kohath ( 38547 )

            Centralizing police around other police seems counterproductive and inefficient. If police are going to protect and serve citizens, they should be distributed near the citizens. If they're going to catch criminals or patrol to deter criminals, they should be distributed near the crime areas.

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      Police should create a mobile platform and move the police stations to where the crime happens every few...

      Congratulations, you've just invented the TARDIS.

    • I would guess there's relatively little crime within a block of the police station. Police should create a mobile platform and move the police stations to where the crime happens every few weeks or months.

      Well, you'd be wrong.

      My mom once tested out how fast the car could go (when she was a teen) nearby a police station because she figured they wouldn't be looking there. Things have changed a little since, but most likely it's still the case that they tend to turn a blind eye around the station because of the (incorrect) bias that "no would be dumb enough to commit crimes near the station".

    • Rochester NY once had a sex shop owner murdered in his store that was only a few hundred feet from a police station. The city's solution? Shut down the station. Proximity to the police isn't always a guarantee of safety.

    • by dave562 ( 969951 )

      Most big cities have police RVs that they use as mobile command posts.

      Here is one that my home town has...

      https://www.ldvusa.com/vehicle... [ldvusa.com]

  • by kilodelta ( 843627 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @12:30PM (#48523827) Homepage
    Was the banning of tetraethyl lead in gasoline. Since then crime stats have gotten better and better.
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Shatrat ( 855151 )

      Actually what reduced the crime was the Cosby Show. Since that show came out crime stats have gotten better and better.

      • by PRMan ( 959735 )
        Except in areas with lead pipes... Maybe they don't get the Cosby Show in areas with lead pipes...?
      • by Jodka ( 520060 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @03:21PM (#48525249)

        Actually, what really reduced crime was legalized abortion.

        From "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime [uchicago.edu]," by John J. Donohue III and Steven D. Levitt, appearing in the The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

        We offer evidence that legalized abortion has contributed signiZcantly to
        recent crime reductions. Crime began to fall roughly eighteen years after abortion
        legalization. The Zve states that allowed abortion in 1970 experienced declines
        earlier than the rest of the nation, which legalized in 1973 with Roe v. Wade.
        States with high abortion rates in the 1970s and 1980s experienced greater crime
        reductions in the 1990s. In high abortion states, only arrests of those born after
        abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states. Legalized abortion appears
        to account for as much as 50 percent of the recent drop in crime.

        If that is correct, still either the Cosby Show or banning leaded gasoline could have accounted for up to a 50% of the drop in crime.

  • I glossed through the lengthy article and didn't see if the DA's "Moneyball" approach is working, and to what extent if it is.

    • by nbauman ( 624611 )

      I glossed through the lengthy article and didn't see if the DA's "Moneyball" approach is working, and to what extent if it is.

      The article just touched on this, but major crime statistics have been going down around the country, for reasons that aren't too clear.

      Geographically, crime has been going down as much in NYC as anywhere else, so all these approaches didn't make any difference.

      Over time, the crime rate has been going down in NYC as these approaches come and go, so all these approaches didn't make any difference.

  • Less crime is great, but these methods presuppose that the DA & the police are working so closely together as to be indistinguishable. If that's a desirable arrangement, we still need someone who is willing to prosecute police misconduct.

    • by PRMan ( 959735 )
      Well, one would hope that if the community sees that this works, they may next report the dirty cops, hoping that the DAs take notice.
  • by VAXcat ( 674775 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:07PM (#48524215)
    Hmmm...this reminds me of the story about operational analysis of bomber armor in WWII. Briefly, the Allies examined bombers that returned from raids, compiled where they had been hit by flak and machine gun fire, and started a program to armor those spots. Then they realized, that the planes that hadn't returned probably had been damaged in the spots that the returning planes had not been, and that's where the armor was needed. In this case, singling out the people who get arrested over and over, while not a bad idea, is focusing on the incompetent criminals - the people who are good at it will get arrested at much lower rates than the ones who are in and out of the system all the time.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:33PM (#48524487)

      While your analogy is a good one. I think you are drawing the wrong conclusions.

      Basically in 1990 they started talking to each other. Each of the 5 cities that consist of new york has its own DA. They never shared any data. So you could have someone in and out of all the different systems. Basically a repeat offender. He could get away with it because he could game the system a bit by just shifting his act a few blocks and lay low from the other group. Even if they were picked up by the same system the DA office was swamped and just went by the case notes. Instead of picking them out and saying 'what is wrong'. One example they gave was a dude they gave 3-4 chances. He kept doing the same thing. They eventually did not plea him out.

      They went after the people who are repeat offenders. Not the guy who just got busted for jay walking. The jay walker would get a ticket and maybe pumped for some info depending on tattoos cloths and where he lived.

      Where as before they had mountains of evidence but nothing putting the whole puzzle together.

      They were looking to lower the massive basically petty larceny crimes. One example was from a different city where 70% of the crimes were committed by 1-2% of the population. By figuring out the key players in that 1-2% you can disrupt the crime flow.

      It was so bad I lived in a small tiny town in the midwest. *I* knew how notorious crime in NY was and how seedy times square was. I have never stepped foot there. Yet I knew about it. That is how bad it was. Apparently now it is more like a jacked up tourist trap.

      is focusing on the incompetent criminals
      Perhaps. But as a cop once told a friend of mine. "Ever go fishing? Well you cant catch them all but I got you" They could not even tell the difference between a petty one time guy from a thug who had bounced in and out 20 times. The arrest rate will be the same either way for the 'top shelf' guys. If you can remove the noise the big guys start to stand out.

    • True.. but it's hard to focus on the people you don' t know about. Getting rid of known repeat offenders would at least be an improvement.

    • I think you've got a good point -- except that we're not talking about people getting arrested here; we're talking about known repeat-offenders (most of them have repeat convictions). The idea here is to spend less time on the "repeat" portion and just put these guys away, so that all of that time they were wasting in the courts and for police on the beat can be spent looking at the cases they currently can't handle appropriately due to volume caused by repeat offenders.

      So it'd be more like a study that tr

    • by dave562 ( 969951 )

      Not exactly true. Crime is a numbers game. Criminals get away with it far more frequently than they get caught. But sooner or later, everyone gets caught. The careless ones get caught more often, that is true. But even the 'good' ones roll the dice every time they break the law.

  • Wait, what? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by CrankyFool ( 680025 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:07PM (#48524227)

    The database contains "more than 9,000 chronic offenders" which include "uncooperative witnesses"? Does anyone else worry about this?

    • The database contains "more than 9,000 chronic offenders" which include "uncooperative witnesses"? Does anyone else worry about this?

      But ... it is your civic duty to assist law enforcement in any capacity you can, at all times.

      War is peace. Freedom is slavery. You're either with us or you're with the terrorists.

      Papers, please, comrade.

    • The database contains "more than 9,000 chronic offenders" which include "uncooperative witnesses"? Does anyone else worry about this?

      Yes, but compared that to the fact that so many of these prosecutions can only identify "the State" as a victim (aka victimless "crimes") and that 97% of them take a plea due to charge stacking and prosecutorial belligerence, when many of the accused are actually innocent, the harassment of witnesses is so minor next to the shredding of the sixth amendment.

      If the DA's really w

    • I noticed that they also included this:

      virtually all of whom have criminal records.

      Why in hell are they including people with no criminal records in a list of "chronic offenders"? Don't we have some sort of presumption of innocence in our legal system?

    • by dave562 ( 969951 )

      Not really. Gang A shoots at Gang B. Gangster B1 gets hit. Gangsters B2 through B12 refuse to help police because snitches get stitches. Therefore they are likely involved with the gang, or sympathetic to the gang.

      You can safely assume that the police can tell the difference between "someone afraid to testify due to fear of retaliation" versus "uncooperative witnesses".

  • by MikeTheGreat ( 34142 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:10PM (#48524261)

    9,000 chronic offenders (PDF), virtually all of whom have criminal records

    How can you be a chronic offender and NOT have a record?

    • by gstoddart ( 321705 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:37PM (#48524549) Homepage

      How can you be a chronic offender and NOT have a record?

      Don't get caught?

    • Someone in the next comment thread mentioned Wall Street...

    • 9,000 chronic offenders (PDF), virtually all of whom have criminal records

      How can you be a chronic offender and NOT have a record?

      There are some chronic offenders with juvie records, as opposed to criminal records.

    • by dave562 ( 969951 )

      Guilty by association. Usually gang members who are not hard core / have not been charged with a crime before... yet always seem to be nearby when things are happening. See the above comments about 'uncooperative witnesses'. While freedom of speech protects a person's right to throw up gang signs and tell an officer to go fuck themselves, and dress just like the gangsters who are dealing drugs and breaking into apartments... we do have a system that still vaguely upholds the ideal of 'innocent until prov

  • by sgt_doom ( 655561 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @01:21PM (#48524371)
    Wall Street, responsible for the global economic meltdown (JPMorgan CHASE, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, etc., etc.), is in Cyrus Vance Jr.'s district, and it was Vance Junior who went after some tiny little Chinese immigrant bank, Abacus Bank, instead of going after a single one of the major players.

    I call bullcrap on this!
  • Putting police officers inside giant plastic bubbles and then tilting the whole of Manhattan Island to help them collect bananas is clearly the best approach to fighting crime.

    Why this wasn't done years ago is beyond me.

Keep up the good work! But please don't ask me to help.

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