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Government Math News Science

Government Efficiency and Network Theory 108

Science News reports on a study relating (in a loose way) the efficiency of a national government with the size of its cabinet. Researchers in Vienna found that the development level of countries, as a proxy for the efficiency of their governments, is in general lower for countries with more members in the national cabinets. They then went on to model cabinet members as nodes in a network and found support for the observed correlation. There was even specific evidence for the decades-old observation of English historian Cyril Northcote Parkinson that decision-making is severely impaired in committees of more than 20 people. The US is getting close to Parkinson's cutoff, at 17.
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Government Efficiency and Network Theory

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:18AM (#23375222)

    There was even specific evidence for the decades-old observation of English historian Cyril Northcote Parkinson that decision-making is severely impaired in committees of more than 20 people.
    Well that explains the ISO.

    Oh, and the corruption of course.

    • by ShieldW0lf ( 601553 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @08:13AM (#23376950) Journal
      Slavery is a good deal more efficient than negotiating with unions. An Emperor is a good deal more efficient than Democracy. Do we want to live in a perfectly efficient world? No. We do not. 99% of the foolish, arrogant ideas held by those in positions of authority should be prevented from ever being pursued in a serious fashion.

      Efficiency, ultra-violence, ultra-realism and secret prison camps. Gee, where does this all lead?
      • by gnick ( 1211984 )
        Where is your sense of patriotism? As a proud member of your country, your main concern should be to push its GDP as high as possible. Sure, not everyone in Cambodia thought very highly of Pol Pot during his restructuring [wikipedia.org], but do you have any idea what he did for the bottom line?
      • by Chyeld ( 713439 )
        Meh, as long as my two minutes hate is on time and not a re-run, what do I care?
      • by mdfst13 ( 664665 )

        Slavery is a good deal more efficient than negotiating with unions.

        Actually, unions are more efficient. In general, it is more efficient to get the worker to voluntarily do things than to impose those conditions upon the worker. This is why the north was more developed than the south; the US was more developed than the USSR; the Renaissance occurred after the bubonic plague and its inroads on serfdom.

        Slavery sounds like it should be more efficient, because theoretically the master can demand anything from the slave. However, in practice, the cost of enforcement demande

      • by smithmc ( 451373 ) *

        Slavery is a good deal more efficient than negotiating with unions.
        Efficient at what? Guaranteeing the freedoms of the slaves? Maximizing their wages? I would say that, in general, slavery is not very efficient at anything, if you're a slave.

        An Emperor is a good deal more efficient than Democracy.
        Again, efficient at what? Protecting the rights of the people? Providing those people with the society they desire? I don't think so.
  • National governments (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Iamthecheese ( 1264298 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:21AM (#23375236)
    This can, at best, describe the cabinet-level and section of the governments. With many different structures, a poor measure at best. A proper study would require many more measurements, and be weighted by the decision powers given to various levels of government. The Japanese diet, for instance, is much more powerful than the president and his cabinet.
    • by edittard ( 805475 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:47AM (#23375532)

      The Japanese diet, for instance, is much more powerful than the president and his cabinet.
      I apologise to rice and raw fish. Seems I underestimated them!
    • by patio11 ( 857072 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @04:25AM (#23375640)
      ... as Japan does not have a president.
      • He's so weak, he doesn't even have an office or title! He's just some unpaid guy in the basement trying his best to hold onto his stapler.
    • The Japanese Diet is the legislature, equivalent to Congress. The Japanese Cabinet is called the, um, Cabinet.
    • Also, a cabinet is only as good as its leader, making the cutoff of 20 far lower for the U.S. right now ... I would suggest a number like 4, or 1 ...
    • by paanta ( 640245 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @07:57AM (#23376774) Homepage
      "Stefan Thurner, a physicist at the Medical University of Vienna, and his collaborators looked at the overall efficiency of virtually every government on the globe, as measured by United Nations and World Bank indicators taking into account factors such as literacy, life expectancy and wealth"

      The big problem with this is that it's assuming the government has significant control over literacy, wealth and life expectancy. Literacy and life expectancy are strongly related to wealth, and wealth is related to a bunch of geographical factors. I didn't read the study, but did it compare a country only to its neighbors/other countries on its continent? Because it should have. Also, is there any way to separate causation and correlation here?

      Perhaps Weak Country -> Weak Government -> Political Mayhem -> Large Committees of People With Divergent Opinions.

      P.S. Be suspicious of any political/social science research done by physicists.
      • You may be underestimating the effect of government power on wealth. Much of US wealth is tied to the dollar's strength as a reserve currency, and much of that is tied to our political status as a world superpower. The dollar was stronger before Frat Boy went on a spending spree with the US Treasury's credit card, but even now, dollars are pretty valuable in the grand scheme of things.
  • sounds like something I should model in the next version of this:

    http://www.democracygame.com/ [democracygame.com]

    It already represents ministers as nodes in a neural network.
    Can't say it surprises me in the least tbh.
    • by durval ( 233404 )

      sounds like something I should model in the next version of this:
      http://www.democracygame.com/ [democracygame.com]

      What, no Linux version? Does it at least run well under Wine?
    • by daigu ( 111684 )
      I just wanted to say I liked Kudos [positech.co.uk]. It's a nice little diversion - although it's not for everyone. I meant to check out Democracy when I first heard of your games, but never got to it. I'll have to make a note to check it out when I have some down time. Anyway, just wanted to say I liked your stuff, and I hope you are making a living from your games.
  • The Legion (Score:1, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    The Legion of Doom was case in point of why this isnt true. They NEVER were successful despite the under 20 rule...
  • by WK2 ( 1072560 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:29AM (#23375262) Homepage
    Government inefficiency is a good thing. Bureaucracies (attempt to) keep the government slow and sane. The extreme alternative is a dictatorship, which is much more efficient.
    • Except in Soviet Russia.
    • by Chuck Chunder ( 21021 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:10AM (#23375394) Journal
      Efficient in the sense that they don't bother working much on a whole heap of areas and just concentrate on oppression.

      Dictatorships don't tend to get more done, they just try to do less. Perhaps that is efficient in some sense but not, I think, in a particularly useful one.

      You are right though, for governmental systems that are somewhat more answerable to the public inefficiency is one thing that stops governments doing too many things the people aren't interested in as there tend to be enough things the people are interested in to keep them fairly occupied.
      • by n dot l ( 1099033 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:49AM (#23375538)

        Efficient in the sense that they don't bother working much on a whole heap of areas and just concentrate on oppression.
        Well, yes and no. Stalin, for example, built Russia back up from the brink of disaster (Soviet losses were staggeringly large during WWII) and into a nation the rest of the world feared for nearly half a century. This was no small task - it involved the reconstruction of the cities the Germans had razed, modernizing many others, rebuilding his military, development of the USSR's nuclear weapons program, etc. That was no small task. He did that and he oppressed the people he ruled over.

        I don't think the number of priorities has much to do with efficiency (by any measure) in the long run. Authoritarian regimes can get a lot done in a very short period, and history has proven that time and again (I think we all remember reading about all the kings that inherited a disaster and had built an empire by the time they died in school). The trouble is that they're extremely sensitive to corruption, internal power struggles, and simple human vanity. When the strong leader dies, those who inherit his power often do tremendous damage simply bickering with each other over who gets to rule exactly what. And then when the next great ruler steps up and takes control we find that they first go throughout the country destroying a great many things in order to rebuild them in their own likeness. And in both cases we find that the bottom rung officials are corrupt as all hell since they're not accountable to anyone but their own superiors, who are often at great distance and too indifferent to bother listening to the people's complaints.
        • (I think we all remember reading about all the kings that inherited a disaster and had built an empire by the time they died in school).
          Really? I can't seem to recall reading about any empire-building kings who died in school. And I think I'd remember a thing like that.
        • by cavver ( 454509 )
          You cannot be more in error. What stalin managed to do is to pump up military expenses at the cost of the civillian expenses ( i.e. goods manufacture , constructions ... ). The living conditions in Russia were appalling compared to those in western nations , and some survived to be encountered in current russia. Also - environment was neglected , and so on ....
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            You have to consider that there were 4 countries that got trashed in the war:
            france, germany -> both given lots of money to rebuild
            japan -> given even more money because somebody made them glow
            russia -> not given any money, in fact some historians think that America wanted to stay out of WWII as long as possible as they liked the fact that Russia was getting crushed.

            Russia was almost ruined by the end of WWII to turn it round and become a supper power isnt easy (irrespective of their failures as a
            • by Thuktun ( 221615 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @09:11AM (#23377612) Journal

              Russia was almost ruined by the end of WWII to turn it round and become a supper power
              ...whose cuisine was feared and envied by the world.
        • Well, yes and no. Stalin, for example, built Russia back up from the brink of disaster (Soviet losses were staggeringly large during WWII)
          And now kids, let's ask why Soviet losses were quite so high during "The Great Patriotic War". The answer? Koba's little purges leading up to and during the war.
          • Of course. I was talking about the period following the war, after the Germans had knocked some sense into him (he did, after all, eventually stop killing his best generals). But then again, that's a perfect example of what I was saying - when dictators take power they often do a lot of damage solidifying that power before they get on with the task of actually building anything - in this case the USSR was unfortunate to have that first period coincide with the war.
        • Authoritarian regimes can get a lot done in a very short period...Stalin, for example, built Russia back up from the brink of disaster...He did that AND he oppressed the people he ruled over....When the strong leader dies, those who inherit his power often do tremendous damage simply bickering with each other over who gets to rule exactly what.

          This concept is explored in The J Curve - A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall [wikipedia.org], which graphs the openness of the nation on the X-axis, and national s

      • by jimicus ( 737525 )

        Dictatorships don't tend to get more done, they just try to do less.
        I take it you've never tried getting someone in a public service role in the UK to do something then?
      • I would argue that it's good for a government to take time to study complex issues to make sensible, deliberate decisions. Inefficiency merely slows that process and creates the appearance of deliberation to mask debilitation.

        The US government is based on an evolutionary process of change. It's not designed to make fundamental changes quickly or capriciously.

        Earmarks notwithstanding. Just who's looking at their ears anyway?

    • In general I'd say yes, but their measures of efficiency were literacy, life expectancy and wealth - all measures that are generally better in capitalist countries with smaller governments. In this case, government "efficiency" is a good thing.
    • by rumith ( 983060 )
      Are there meeting twenty men?
      Hours will pass by, dumb and dull.
      If there are instead just ten,
      There's a chance of a result.

      The work is skillfully and quickly done
      Only if there's a committee of one.
    • A crippled government is a good government.

      Ideally you have one that can react to a crisis (natural disaster or invasion) but is very, very slow to get anything else done. The less meddling the bettter.

      I'ds actually like it if the government was required to spend 50% of its time debating and repealing existing law, instead of just layering on more and more.
    • I wonder what the measure as efficientcy, dicisions made or % of decisions that where 'right'(asin did not get revoked at a latter date) or number of right decisions?
      I only want a government with a high % of right decisions no matter how few of them they make.

      A 1 man cabinet will make lots of decisions very fast, but will not get any right except for stuff he knows about, but a cabinet with 20 members will probably take its time but each member will contribute their expertise.

      I think the problem is simply c
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Stradivarius ( 7490 )
      I disagree on several counts:

      1. I don't believe the alternative to poor government (inefficiency) need be worse government (such as dictatorship). Also, dictatorships traditionally have not been terribly efficient at much other than enriching the dictator and his friends.

      2. While well-considered policies take time to figure out, I see little evidence that the slowness that bureaucracies promote has had any corresponding positive effect on quality or sanity. On the contrary - these bloated organizations see
      • The basis of government is coercive deadly force, and the threat thereof. For some things, this is necessary; for most things (the US gov't is doing), force is inappropriate and/or antithetical.
        All the laws, procedures, beuracracies, Miranda Rights, etc, are there in an attempt to limit the ways and frequency that the force is used.
        When a people feel that voting and other means of redress are ineffective, then the best one can hope for is that the gov't is inefficient. Low voter turnout reflects the dis
        • Efficiency to me is a function both of speed and of quality. Adopting something quickly is not efficient if what you adopt is highly flawed.
      • I think a general Government necessary for us, and there is no form of government but what may be a blessing to the people if well administered, and believe farther that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in Despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic Government, being incapable of any other.
  • by red_crayon ( 202742 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:30AM (#23375272)
    We don't have a randomized experiment here, with cabinet size
    being manipulated... countries get the cabinets they choose
    (sort of).

    More complex problems (to begin with) -?-> larger cabinet.
  • by SpeedyDX ( 1014595 ) <speedyphoenix&gmail,com> on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:33AM (#23375284)
    I don't know about the Parkinson's Cutoff, but I think at least one former member of the cabinet [youtube.com] surpassed the Alzheimer's Threshold.

    I hope my karma is high enough to withstand this beating. Hmm, I don't recall.
  • Power shift (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ChrisMaple ( 607946 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @02:41AM (#23375308)
    Parkinson also noted that when the cabinet exceeded 20 persons it merely indicated that power had shifted away from the cabinet as a unit. Power might be in another group, or in a subset of the group and meets separately to get the real work done.

    Around 20 members, people start making prepared statements rather than using meetings as think tanks. Real work is no longer done in cabinet meetings.

    Since this new study indicates that the government and the nation is less efficient if the cabinet is large, it's an interesting extension of Parkinson's work.

    Many of Parkinson's articles were humorous and he strongly hinted that he had no actual numbers to back up his claims. It's a little surprising to see that the real world aligns with his claims.

  • Dictatorship is the most efficient system in decision making.

    And politicians in a 'democratic' system knows this as well. It's not unusual to delegate one person(I'm even not talking about an elected one) the sole decision making power on extremely important issues.
  • In that case the US congress uses CSMA/CD.
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by jayveekay ( 735967 )
      "In that case the US congress uses CSMA/CD."

      Where that stands for "Carry Sufficent Money for Access / Complete Debacle".
  • But... I think it is interesting to consider WHY certain posts are created. Does a separate, cabinet level post really need to exist for homeland security? Wouldn't a secretary of defense occupy that duty?

    Sure, homeland security would be a worthy sub-cabinet level post, but was the homeland security position made into a cabinet position for PR or for truly getting things done?
    • by jayveekay ( 735967 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:05AM (#23375374)
      "But... I think it is interesting to consider WHY certain posts are created."

      Some posts are created to amuse, some to inform, some to troll, and some posts are created to designate a 'goal' area in a sporting competition. I hope that you think this post belongs in the first category. :)

      More seriously, I expect that politicians will always create sufficient jobs (of which cabinet posts are just one type) to give their friends the money/power that they want, without much concern for efficiency or effectiveness. How do you think "Brownie" got his job as head of FEMA?

      • Re: (Score:1, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward
        According to Parkinson (again) administrators exist to make work for each other. They are also judged by the number of staff they have.
        So, by multiplying subordinates, an administrator can increase his standing. But this also increases his workload because he has to manage the extra staff.
        If an administrator can't, for some reason, do his own work he will meddle in someone else's.
        • by mikael ( 484 )
          It's the same in accounting - somebody did a study on the distribution on workloads, and found that when the workloads was low, accountants would simply take whatever task was available, split it up, go off and do their part of the task for half the day, then spend the other half of the day collating the results back together. A single person would have had the work completed in half a day. In the end, they spend more time shuffling papers to and from each other, rather than actually doing the work.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Does a separate, cabinet level post really need to exist for homeland security?

      No. The department itself should not exist at all, nor the rest of the alphabet soup it finds itself in. "Home Security" as it should be done is provided for in the Second Amendment with local training programs for handling, markmanship, gunsmithing and martial arts would be as much "organizing" as needed and that by the members of the local community.

      "I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty th

  • The study actually finds a correlation between a countries HDI (human development index) and the size of its cabinet.
  • Belgium (Score:1, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward
    nice study.

    if you want to read the whole report, i found the original url here :
    http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.2202
    http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.2202v1

    the only problem i see is that they missed out on the *actual* membership, for example Belgium is ranked as 15 but this doesnt explain the shabby decisionmaking in Belgium until you also count in the regional govs which should put it around 50 give or take.
  • by Anonymous Coward
    I have several of C N Parkinson's books, including a signed first edition of 'Parkinson's Law', from which this example is taken.

    Though he was a history professor, and did some studies, Parkinson's primary claim to fame is not as a historian. He was a writer who wrote historical fiction with a sideline in humorous articles and books.

    This whole study sounds as if it has been taken completely from the (comic) Parkinson proposal which is wiki'ed here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_Inefficiency
  • by edittard ( 805475 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:22AM (#23375442)
    News just in - the quality of soup can suffer when an excessive number of culinary technicians are involved in the preparation. Film at 11.
  • Better coverage (Score:5, Informative)

    by durval ( 233404 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @03:38AM (#23375500)
    This article cover the news better: [physicsworld.com]http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/33926 [physicsworld.com]

    It also contains a link to the original paper: [arxiv.org]http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.2202 [arxiv.org]
  • Wait.

    You mean more politicians ='s LESS efficiency!?

    Let's just replace the politicians with scientists. Problem SOLVED.

  • by abbamouse ( 469716 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @04:03AM (#23375584) Homepage
    The number of Cabinet members and Cabinet-level departments is much less important in the US than in parliamentary systems.

    Our Cabinet is one in name only. The President has authority over all executive branch decisions, and no Cabinet head can go against his wishes. He can remove them at his leisure and appoint new ones. Although the Senate confirms appointments, it usually does so regardless of whether Senators agree with the policies of the nominee. Instead, it is expected that as long as the nominee isn't scandalous or completely incompetent, he or she will be confirmed.

    Moreover, our Cabinet doesn't really have meetings anymore. It just isn't the case that the heads of the Departments of Veterans Affairs, the Treasury, and the Interor sit around with the President and discuss policy. The executive branch really does its business in smaller groups, many of them wholly distinct form the Cabinet (the National Security Council, for example).
    • by zsau ( 266209 )
      Is this just a feature of the current administration, or has it been heading this way for a while and it's unlikely to be changed next year? For instance, in the 1980s during the Hawke Government in Australia, the Prime Minister wasn't a particularly powerful member of the Cabinet. But the current Prime Minister seems to pretty much (want to) run the show on his own. And although the the Governor-General could technically refuse to sack a minister, that's only likely to happen if the Prime Minister doesn't
      • It's pretty much always been that way. The US cabinet is the Prez's set of lieutenants as he/she carries out what Congress tells her/him to do. That's the theory; Nowadays the prez does wuddeverdahek he wants and Congress is a backseat driver.
        IIRC, the constitu mentions the cabinet as sorta an expected thing the prez would have, and that the members are appointed by prez with "the advise and consent" of the Senate. The actual internal relationship isn't described in great detail, but is left up to the
      • In the US, the cabinet in the started out completely at the pleasure of the President. Washington *created it* out of whole cloth during his administration, and other presidents just ran with it. The cabinet heads really have no authority at all, except that which the president assigns to them.

        And now you're going to make me read the high-numbered amendments to check whether the practice has been cemented in the constitution (I think it has), which would make it a case of the cabinet gaining authority ove
  • Coming up next, our studies investigate the religion of the Pope.
  • by Alex Belits ( 437 ) * on Monday May 12, 2008 @05:03AM (#23375790) Homepage
    Oh, wait, I did that already -- in Russia in early 90's. And all they did was giving up control of everything government had and everything government didn't have, to domestic and foreign "businesses" that proceeded to loot the country...

    I have an idea. Can I be the looting businessman this time, and you all will be cheerleading Libertarians?

    Pretty please?

    With sugar on top?

    • by xiux ( 1035790 )
      No, you can be the one making broad, sweeping generalizations. Sorry, I dont intend to sound hostile, but this is something I feel strongly about.

      While I feel politically agnostic, I find libertarian ideals appealing. Nowhere have I read anything associating libertarianism with Laissez-faire Capitalism. It seems that there is no substitute for self-involvement when it comes to governing bodies. When you let others make decisions for you, its possible for those results to not be in your favor.
      • by Boronx ( 228853 )

        While I feel politically agnostic, I find libertarian ideals appealing. Nowhere have I read anything associating libertarianism with Laissez-faire Capitalism


        Glad you put that to bed.
      • by hawkfish ( 8978 )

        No, you can be the one making broad, sweeping generalizations.

        Go read Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine". The scary thing about this book is that to prove her thesis, all she had to do was document quotes from various neo-cons who had publicly stated that such looting was the goal (it was part of the prospectus if you will). Including the GP's observations about the looting of Russia. The only thing I would add is that Russia was one of the few places that was not looted by foreigners - Yeltsin was ver

        • by xiux ( 1035790 )
          Sorry, I wasn't being specific, I was focused on the "cheerleading Libertarians" comment. I wasnt sure how it fit in with the rest of his statement and not an attack. And if I claim to be Libertarian but I'm really something else, does that paint the rest of the Libertarians with the same brush? Much like the Republican party in the US, they transformed into something totally different and they are still called the same thing.
  • Isn't government efficiency an oxymoron?
  • by debrain ( 29228 ) on Monday May 12, 2008 @06:40AM (#23376246) Journal
    A fairly sage quote I remember from somewhere is:

    The intelligence of a committee is equal to the intelligence of the dumbest member of the committee divided by the number of people on it.

  • "It's a good thing we're not gettin' all the government we're payin' for."
    The LAST thing the USA needs now is an efficient presidency.
    I want my gubbermint to run slowly enuf that we the people have time to get outraged, organized, wake up the couch potatoes and cure their apathy, and get the rest of the political system moving (legally) against the prezdint's ideers.
  • This is what happens when we leave social science to actual scientists. Physicists are doing some really cool stuff with social network analysis, but they're ignoring over 50 years of actual social theory of networks. They're finding correlation and calling it causation.

    Saying that countries with large cabinets are less politically developed isn't that interesting or even true (Canada has a federal minister of sports and recreation!). What needs to be looked into is _why_ less developed countries have large
  • decision-making is severely impaired in committees of more than 20 people.
    Not if they all agree with each other.
  • Researchers in Vienna found that the development level of countries, as a proxy for the efficiency of their governments, is in general lower for countries with more members in the national cabinets.

    This is an incredibly complex (and wrong) explanation for a simple phenomena.

    In most 3rd World (at least African) countries, the state is used as an instrument to employ the ruling party and its members. For this the cabinet is fairly effective - it is usually appointed by the ruling party's president (a
  • Not all members of the Cabinet will be involved in every decision. If they are, then something is seriously wrong. So the "17" isn't real. The number actually involved in any decision will be the executive set operating in that department: the relevant member of the Cabinet, plus anyone above or below who may need to be involved. Other silos won't necessarily be involved in the decision itself unless they are meshed in some way by the policy intended....and then need only look at the fallout for their area

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