'Havana Syndrome' Debate Rises Again in US Government (cnn.com) 12
An anonymous reader shared this report from CNN:
New intelligence has led two US intelligence agencies to conclude that it's possible a small number of mysterious health ailments colloquially termed as Havana Syndrome impacting spies, soldiers and diplomats around the world may have been caused by a "novel weapon" wielded by a foreign actor, according to intelligence officials and a new unclassified summary report released on Friday. However, the two agencies are in the minority and the broader intelligence community assessment remains that it is very unlikely that the symptoms were caused by a foreign actor, according to the unclassified report summary issued Friday — even as an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence [ODNI] emphasized that analysts cannot "rule out" the possibility in some small number of cases.
The subtle, technocratic shift in the assessment over the cause of Havana Syndrome has reignited a bitter debate that has split US officials, Capitol Hill and victims over the likelihood that the bizarre injuries were caused by a weapon or a host of disparate, natural causes. Sometime in the last two years, the US received new intelligence that indicated a foreign nation's directed energy research programs had been "making progress," according to the official. That led one unnamed intelligence agency to assess that there was a "roughly even chance" that a foreign country has used some kind of novel weapon against a small group of victims, causing the symptoms that the government officially calls "anomalous health incidents" — headaches, vertigo and even, in some cases, signs of traumatic brain injury. A second intelligence agency assessed a "roughly even" chance that a foreign actor possessed such a weapon but is unlikely to have deployed it against US personnel...
But both judgments were made with low confidence, according to the ODNI official. And critically, possessing a capability is not the same as proof that it has been used.
The article notes that U.S. intelligence and administration officials "do not doubt that the injuries are real and deserving of government compensation." But one official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told CNN "The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement." And they added that all U.S. Intelligence Community components "agree that years of Intelligence Community collection, targeting and analytic efforts have not surfaced compelling intelligence reporting that ties a foreign actor to any specific event reported" as a possible anomalous health incident.
CNN adds that "the official said some evidence directly contradicts the notion that a foreign government was involved." The White House emphasized that research to determine the causes of the incidents is ongoing... On Friday, officials emphasized that the intelligence community is now supporting lab work on whether radio frequencies can cause "bioeffects" in line with what victims have reported. The latest findings from limited studies have shown mixed results, while previously most results had shown no effects, officials said. A panel of experts assembled by the intelligence community that studied a smaller set of incidents previously found that the symptoms might be explained by "pulsed electromagnetic or acoustic energy," as opposed to environmental or medical conditions. "There was unanimous judgment by the panel that the most plausible explanation for a subset of cases was exposure to directed energy," a second senior administration official said.
But complicating matters for victims and analysts is the fact that not all of those reporting Anomalous Health Incidents have the same set of symptoms — and the vast majority of cases have been explained by other causes, officials have previously said...
The subtle, technocratic shift in the assessment over the cause of Havana Syndrome has reignited a bitter debate that has split US officials, Capitol Hill and victims over the likelihood that the bizarre injuries were caused by a weapon or a host of disparate, natural causes. Sometime in the last two years, the US received new intelligence that indicated a foreign nation's directed energy research programs had been "making progress," according to the official. That led one unnamed intelligence agency to assess that there was a "roughly even chance" that a foreign country has used some kind of novel weapon against a small group of victims, causing the symptoms that the government officially calls "anomalous health incidents" — headaches, vertigo and even, in some cases, signs of traumatic brain injury. A second intelligence agency assessed a "roughly even" chance that a foreign actor possessed such a weapon but is unlikely to have deployed it against US personnel...
But both judgments were made with low confidence, according to the ODNI official. And critically, possessing a capability is not the same as proof that it has been used.
The article notes that U.S. intelligence and administration officials "do not doubt that the injuries are real and deserving of government compensation." But one official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told CNN "The intelligence does not link a foreign actor to these events. Indeed, it points away from their involvement." And they added that all U.S. Intelligence Community components "agree that years of Intelligence Community collection, targeting and analytic efforts have not surfaced compelling intelligence reporting that ties a foreign actor to any specific event reported" as a possible anomalous health incident.
CNN adds that "the official said some evidence directly contradicts the notion that a foreign government was involved." The White House emphasized that research to determine the causes of the incidents is ongoing... On Friday, officials emphasized that the intelligence community is now supporting lab work on whether radio frequencies can cause "bioeffects" in line with what victims have reported. The latest findings from limited studies have shown mixed results, while previously most results had shown no effects, officials said. A panel of experts assembled by the intelligence community that studied a smaller set of incidents previously found that the symptoms might be explained by "pulsed electromagnetic or acoustic energy," as opposed to environmental or medical conditions. "There was unanimous judgment by the panel that the most plausible explanation for a subset of cases was exposure to directed energy," a second senior administration official said.
But complicating matters for victims and analysts is the fact that not all of those reporting Anomalous Health Incidents have the same set of symptoms — and the vast majority of cases have been explained by other causes, officials have previously said...
Of course they'd say that. (Score:2)
If they admit that it was a foreign goverment, they'd have to admit that they're doing things to us that we don't know how to do to them.
Re: (Score:2)
Admitting they don't know what it is tells such a foreign adversary that they have an effective and untraceable weapon.
Re: (Score:2)
Saying they don't know what it is gets such a foreign adversary to think they have an effective and untraceable weapon.
FTFY
Re: (Score:3)
Intelligence work being intelligence work you could go down that rabbit hole for a quite a ways, but at what point do you look at the US having its embassy staff critically injured and wonder how keeping the enemy's secret is worth it?
Re: (Score:3)
It's not just the enemy's secret. If I were part of US intelligence, I would want to catch whoever is doing this, if in fact someone is doing it and it isn't just explainable as a natural phenomenon. That means I would need to be careful about how I play my cards.
I doubt US intelligence would say prematurely they do know what it is, because that could alert the adversary that they may have been found out, thus causing them to hide.
Communist death ray (Score:2)
...sounds like a plot from Austin Powers.
'the vast majority of cases have been explained by other causes'.
the social construction of physical illness? (Score:4, Interesting)
Assessments by intelligence agencies which point to unreliable evidence require an appropriate level of skepticism. Intelligence agencies are also not well equipped to answer scientific questions about "Havana Syndrome" which may or may not be a real thing. From what I've seen the current evidence is compatible with maladies that have a socially constructed component through a collection of potentially unrelated symptoms and social contagion of ideas that make sense of the idiopathic illness. That's enough to create smoke where there is no fire. Some of those people may have some kind of illness, however having an illness of some kind is not necessarily related to the imagined disease construct.
Accept that uncertainty is valid (Score:2)
There probably isn't enough reliable information to come to a decision. That means that the decision you have come to was more based on your personality than on the information. Uncertainty is the correct evaluation. (If you've been paying careful attention you MAY be able to make a reasonable estimate of probabilities. Perhaps. With low certainty.)
right... "WMD" in Iraq and "Syndrome" in Havana .. (Score:1)
right... "WMD" in Iraq and "Syndrome" in Havana ...
Lesson of "Havana Syndrome" (Score:3)