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Would a Post Office Bankruptcy Kill E-Commerce? (cnn.com) 327

MountainLogic writes: With the U.S. Postal Service slated to run out of money this summer, a congressional bailout has become embroiled in the usual, critical and unusual political fights. Every day letter carriers deliver some of our web orders, there are many other functions the post office performs including providing an address validation API that is the core of many shipping systems. Would the collapse of this service mean a major disruption of e-commerce? What other impacts to technology would we face with the collapse of this constitutionally guaranteed service (Article I, Section 8, Clause 7).

Are there other services that the post office could perform to gain revenue? For example, the post office is where many Americans who live outside of major metro areas go to get a passport. A U.S. passport is the gold standard of ID. Could the post office become the ultimate place to go to validate ID and act as a signing authority? If you forget your password, go in to your local post office, show ID and reset your password. Seems like financial institutions would happily pay a few cents per reset to prevent billions in identity theft. Is there any other institution in America that could perform such a service on this scale. How else can the post office become more relevant and more solvent? Is profitability even a reasonable standard as we do not hold DoD to such a standard?

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Would a Post Office Bankruptcy Kill E-Commerce?

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  • Postal banking (Score:5, Interesting)

    by The_mad_linguist ( 1019680 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:14PM (#59943258)

    Postal banking is the obvious option. We had it until the late 60's!

    • Removing their $75B pension prefunding requirement that the Republicans saddled them with would help a lot too. They're paying for full pensions on people they haven't even hired yet!
  • by quonset ( 4839537 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:18PM (#59943282)

    Were it not for Republicans in 2006 who forced the Postal Service to prefund its health benefits for 50 years, something no other business on the planet has to do, this would not be an issue. In short, the Post Office has to fully fund its health account for people who don't yet work for the Post Office and who haven't been born.

    Republicans also tied the hands of the Post Office by forbidding it to raise rates like any normal business does. Nor can the Post Office add a fuel surcharge like UPS or FedEx do.

    All of the above doesn't take into consideration Congress raiding the Post Office for funding which goes into the general budget of the U.S.

    • by sgage ( 109086 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:27PM (#59943322)

      Republicans just flat out suck. Sorry to have to put it so plainly. But they are so obviously on the wrong side of everything that there is no denying it.

      The Democrats? Don't get me started.

      We are on our own, people.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by AK Marc ( 707885 )
        Republicans love the Constitution. Except the 1st Amendment. The 4th Amendment. The 5th Amendment. The 6th Amendment. The 7th Amendment. The 8th Amendment. The 9th Amendment. The 10th Amendment. The 13th Amendment. The 14th Amendment, and especially hate the 16th and 18th Amendments.
        Article 1 section 8? Fuck that shit. (that's where the Post Office is, as well as Interstate Commerce Clause)

        The second Amendment is good, the 3rd Amendment is, meh. The rest is just filler.
        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          Comment removed based on user account deletion
          • by SvnLyrBrto ( 62138 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @10:34PM (#59943706)

            They don't.

            They want to eliminate the entire notion of separation of church from state, seize control of the government, and then abuse the mechanism of state to force their religious agenda on everyone else and punish us for not wanting to live according to their rules.

            Their agenda is contrary to the first amendment; which otherwise protects the rest of us from them. So yeaaah... no. They don't like the first.

            • by kenh ( 9056 )

              They want to eliminate the entire notion of separation of church from state

              Please elaborate? I'm curious where you find this "separation" idea in the constitution? I can only find an "establishment" clause, and a bunch of people that twisted the meaning to remove Christmas Carols from school assemblies in December, yay.

              The wording "separation of church and state" was taken from a letter from Thomas Jefferson to group of Connecticut Baptists that were afraid the US Government was going to outlaw their state (of Connecticut) Baptist religion. At the time of the signing of the Consti

          • by AK Marc ( 707885 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @10:42PM (#59943722)
            The ACLU has sued more times to support religion in school than to object to it. It's the alt-right that objects to the separation of church and state. They want a state religion. The conservatives also hate free speech and freedom of assembly.
        • Republicans also love state's rights.. except for the states that aren't Republican controlled.
      • "The left can sit on this finger, and the right can sit on something bigger"
    • by sjames ( 1099 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:27PM (#59943326) Homepage Journal

      THIS!

      The Post Office is only going bankrupt on paper. The funds are there, it's just that the GOP has it tied up in crazy levels of regulation (irony factor 10!)

      Roll the crazy requirements back to merely extreme and pay back the plundered funds and suddenly the PO is in fine shape.

      Before anyone starts going off on a privatization dream, the other carriers universally depend on the PO for last mile delivery on less profitable routes.

    • Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:57PM (#59943426)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @09:15PM (#59943478)

      to prefund its health benefits for 50 years, something no other business on the planet has to do

      All businesses should be required to do this. If they had, GM retirees wouldn't have been at risk of losing their pensions when GM filed for bankruptcy. If an employer promises their employees future benefits today, they should be required to put away the money today to pay for those benefits, accruing more money as the employee works for them. So if you earn a pension (with health benefits), the company has to put sufficient money into a pension fund on your behalf as you work to pay for that pension. That fund should be owned and operated by an independent company, whose sole role is to manage those funds and pay them out as employees retire. If the company goes bankrupt, your pension is safe. If the company gets bought by a corporate raider, he can't drain the pension funds and sell the remaining husk of the company after he's sucked it dry, leaving pensioners holding the bag. If the company has been promising more pensions than it can deliver, making it look like it's been funding enough based on unrealistic 10% annual earnings in the stock market, it cannot use that shortfall to force retirees to accept a pension cut (because the company will go bankrupt if they don't accept the cuts, and then the pensioners will get nothing). If you force companies to pay for its promises when it makes them, rather than allow them to ignore promises in the hopes that they could pay for them in the future, it prevents all these scenarios.

      The way most companies do it, and the USPS used to do it, is crazy. It leads to managers promising way more in future benefits than they can actually deliver, because they won't be the ones who have to figure out how to pay for it. Somebody else 20-40 years in the future will have to figure out how to pay for those promises made today. Liberals complain all the time about how the annual accounting cycle used in business causes companies to be short-sighted, not planning 5, 10, 20, 50 years into the future. Not considering the distant future consequences of decisions they make today. How it makes them prioritize short-term profits over long-term sustainability. The Republicans do something to fix that, and liberals complain about the fix too. There's just no pleasing you, is there?

      • It is possible for Postal workers to retire on 80% of their final salary for the rest of their life. Then this salary is inflation adjusted. Plus they get extremely generous medical retirement benefits. All of this adds up to postal workers with 20 year or more in service being able to collect more in retirement benefits than they were paid while working. With the fact that many postal workers are baby boomer and they are all retiring, these gold plated retirement benefit are eating up all of the revenue. T

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by stikves ( 127823 )

        I wish I had mod points to mod you up.

        Many companies promise too much benefits, and when they fail to deliver they go to taxpayers for a bailout. They build models when markets are good, and never consider downturns like this one.

        And companies are not alone in this endeavor. The CalPERS (California pension fund for teachers, government workers, and so on) is in constant need of bailouts.
        https://www.zerohedge.com/news... [zerohedge.com] . And those in this fund are generally exempt from social security. I.e.: if this fails,

      • That is an idiotic idea that would skyrocket unemployment and bring a lot of business to its knees as bringing in new staff would be too expensive. Instead look at how countries like Australia do it. The employer is required to pay ~10% of salary into a retirement fund every month (i.e. superannuation) and any employer can pay into that same fund for you so it follows you as you switch jobs, then it doesn't matter whether the company goes bankrupt or you move on or whatever it doesn't put a stupid high burd
        • by lgw ( 121541 )

          The employer is required to pay ~10% of salary into a retirement fund every month

          In the US this is called "Social Security" and both employer and employee are required to pay in (the difference in who pays makes no difference in your paycheck, but people think it does so the cost is split as a compromise).

    • I'm much more libertarian than Republican, but still? Republicans have traditionally been more likely than Democrats to make fiscally wise decisions, in my opinion. That might only be because they're so focused on and beholden to big corporations? But nonetheless, that still means they're making moves that encourage business growth and investment. And that beats a party that believes you can just tax groups as much as you like, to redistribute the money to every special interest group or those you define as

    • by Holi ( 250190 )
      75 years not 50
    • https://www.cnbc.com/id/450184... [cnbc.com]

      LL: So bottom line, the unions claim of the postal service pre-funding pensions for future workers is false?

      Chairman Issa: Absolutely false. The non-partisan Congressional Research Service recently found that pre-funding requirements match Congress’ intent when they were enacted in 2006. The intent is to ensure that the growing unfunded liability for retiree health care for current employees is covered. These employees negotiated for and earned these benefits with thei

  • by sgage ( 109086 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:23PM (#59943298)

    The United States Postal Service was one of the first services provided by the Federal gummint. It is a public good, and should be subsidized if necessary. I would not trust any private entity with first class mail, for a start. Some people still use it.

    Privatizing everything is bullshit.

  • Must be supported (Score:5, Informative)

    by jmccue ( 834797 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:26PM (#59943314) Homepage

    Article I, Section 8, Clause 7 of the United States Constitution, known as the Postal Clause or the Postal Power, empowers Congress "To establish Post Offices and Post Roads".

    The US has a legal obligation to keep this service active. The only issue who pays.

    This is an issue caused by republican presidents. Nixon made the Post Office Independent, and every republician president since did everything the could to bust the union in order to get their wages down to minimum wage level.

    This current issue has to do with a law that moved funding of the pension for all past retirees from the federal gov to the PO, they have been struggling with that and every time they want to increase postage to pay for it, the then republican congress would not allow them. The PO then tried to reduce cost by closing many rural offices, they got a big no from congress, the then tried to eliminate Saturday deliveries, guess what congress said ?

    So all measures the PO tries to put in place they get a bit NO, the only 'yes' they get is to fire people and reduce wages.

    • Isn't it strange how the Constitution provides compensation for time served in office, yet anyone elected to an office has a pension forever after that. That seems like the first place to start.
    • It took several years and multiple trips to the Supreme Court to nail down that the Postal Clause actually allowed the federal government to operate a postal service. Based on the language of the time, the more common interpretation of "establish post offices and post roads" was that someone else (states? private parties?) would actually operate any transport and/or delivery services.

      My favorite of the Supreme Court cases involved paying ships to move mail from, for example, Savannah, SC to Boston, MA.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by whoever57 ( 658626 )

      The US has a legal obligation to keep this service active. The only issue who pays.

      Try reading the Constitution again.

      It doesn't require a postal service, it merely authorizes the Federal Government to establish one and provides that rights of way can be established for the purpose of running a postal service.

  • this screams that the US postal service is really really badly run. Many other governments have made their postal services not just cost neutral but actually profitable. While letters are down, package delivery is at all time high and this should easily be able to sustain them if correctly managed
    • by Thruen ( 753567 )
      Imagine the backtracking we'd need to do for that, though. Better for politicians to save face and keep blaming Amazon while allowing the service to fail. Plus, if we get rid of the USPS, the vote by mail conversation is completely over. It's win-win, just not for the American people.
    • by AK Marc ( 707885 )
      The other provision is that the other postal services are not the same as the US single service everywhere. Rural post and regular post being two separate operations with different times and costs is much more common outside the US. REA and single-price post are a socialist US idea, not practiced in countries the US would consider socialist.
  • The problem is the USPS is losing their most profitable routes and they have always depended on them to subsidize their less profitable routes.
    UPS, FedEx, Amazon, etc... all do their own delivery on the profitable routes and then give the USPS only the unprofitable routes.
    The USPS needs to fix this problem. There are really only two solutions. The first is they could make the unprofitable routes more profitable by
    raising the rates, decreasing the frequency of delivery, or having residents pick up their packages from a central location.
    The second solution would be to find a way to prevent Amazon, FedEx, UPS, etc.. from only taking the profitable routes. This could be
    accomplished in a number of ways like requiring them to delivery to everywhere or refusing to deliver for them if they don't give them all
    the deliveries.

  • by michael_cain ( 66650 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @08:57PM (#59943428) Journal
    ...of headlines says the answer is "no." It wouldn't kill e-commerce, but it might give Amazon a huge advantage because they do an increasing amount of their own last-mile delivery. A few years back Bezos was named to the Logistics Hall of Fame -- he takes this sh*t seriously. Most of my Amazon purchases these days are delivered by Amazon-branded vans, not UPS or Fed Ex or the USPS.
    • This works in my area because there's an Amazon warehouse facility near the airport, and a 'ragtag fleet' of Uber-for-packages gig-workers, some in Amazon-livery vans, running them to their final destinations. I doubt this works for more rural areas, where, as you say, that last-mile part of the equation gets unloaded on USPS workers to deal with. I expect we've all had online purchases show up via "UPS SurePost", where UPS does basically the same thing, dumping truckloads of smaller packages for USPS to
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @09:07PM (#59943452)
    with our country when we are seriously considering letting the United States Post Office go bankrupt. Seriously.
    • Don't mistake idiot musings on the internet ( which has an abundance of idiots ) for "serious consideration". No one is seriously considering it. At best they're being used as a pawn in the endless politics of our time, but it's a far cry from that to actually shutting them down.

      Won't happen.

  • The postal delivery guy has made me nothing more than a middle-man between him and the landfill. I wish they'd just drive the mail straight there and cut me out of the model.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by AndyKron ( 937105 )
      I get the mail once a week (if that), and the recycle bin is on the way back to the house.
  • Huh? I thought the post office has been bankrupt for decades now?
  • by kenwd0elq ( 985465 ) <kenwd0elq@engineer.com> on Monday April 13, 2020 @09:31PM (#59943504)

    Really want to save the Post Office? Double the postage on 3rd class "junk" mail, and switch to alternate day delivery; half the route gets mail on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and the other half gets mail on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

    Really, I can wait one more day for my junk mail.

    Because, since I do most of my banking and correspondence online, junk mail is about all I ever get.

  • Here's the truth, the post office dying would shift e-commerce - but only to the extent it would absolutely put Amazon on top, since they have a nearly complete parallel delivery system in place already.

    Maybe WalMart could still compete, having many distribution centers themselves...

    It would hurt smaller online companies as shipping by UPS and FedEx is more expensive. But I don't think it would hurt them as much as some think, especially niche companies.

  • There's not much you can do about congress critters' sentiments towards the US postal service, except maybe try to change their minds? They're the ones behind the dire straights & frequent threats to the survival of America's beloved post offices. Which other employers are required to fund their employees pensions for the next 10 years?
  • by joe_frisch ( 1366229 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @09:58PM (#59943584)

    In a sense the entire function of government is to do useful things that are not profitable or which have large externalities.

    A for-profit delivery service would not bother delivering to people when that was unusually expensive, so how would those people receive and send official documents?

  • Based on other posts the PO can get back in the black if allowed to do so. It sounds like the health ore funding is a way to fatten the goose up for it to be raided later. However there are other businesses they could get involved in, thanks to being so ubiquitous. Someone from the PO should visit a convenience store in Japan. They handle such a broad array of services it is hard to grasp. Many are based on kiosks, prepaid cards, or services built into the awesome cash registers. I think the USPO sells prepaid cards. For example:

    Dry Cleaning drop off kiosk
    Pay all your phone and utility bills via their barcodes
    Charge and use Cashless cards like Suica which are also usable for transit and stores in train stations
    Concert and event tickets (typically enter a code into a kiosk, bring the receipt to pay at the register, and they print it out and give the ticket to you in an envelope)
    All kinds of Internet based purchases
    Real Bank ATM with withdrawal from bank of credit card
    International payments
    multicopier/scanner that is. Injected to the net or you can connect via wifi or USB
    And you can ship parcels to/from convenience stores too.

  • I don't get it. The demand for package deliveries is at an all time high thanks to CV, yet the Post Office is near bankruptcy. If there are Federal rules in place that keep them from delivering too many packages, REMOVE them now! Somebody in DC get off your fat duff and do your focking jub!

  • Leftists are sweating over:

      - USPS doesn't subsidize Amazon with taxpayer money
      - Amazon will die if USPS goes out of business

    Which is it?

  • by freedom_surfer ( 203272 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @11:26PM (#59943854) Homepage

    But seriously, the post office and other federal agencies are staffed by a large percentage of veterans. Drowning the post office in the proverbial bathtub would take a lot of veterans down with it. Food for thought.

  • Like I would pay $5/month to remove 95% of my mail. I would pay more to prevent the waste from being generated to begin with.

  • by retchdog ( 1319261 ) on Monday April 13, 2020 @11:50PM (#59943928) Journal

    The purpose of government is to bail out companies (private enterprise ftw, suck it liberals) and also kill.

    There is nothing in the Constitution about having a post office or at least there shouldn't be, if there is it was probably some commie fuck like Thomas Paine, I wouldn't know, I haven't read it myself kind of like the Bible because I already know what should be in it. I just know it says kill commies and ragheads, and chinks if and when Trump says to.

  • by Sqreater ( 895148 ) on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @05:38AM (#59944714)
    There is no saving the postal service. The Postal Service cannot make changes that would lead to its survival due to Congress. Congress has made the Postal Service a slave to the "stake holders," the large mailers who bribe Congress with campaign contributions and support. First class and bulk rates at the U.S. Postal Service are set at a much lower rate than practically anywhere in the world as a result. It is Congress subsidizing American businesses to the tune of billions of dollars per year at the expense of the Postal Service. Also, the Postal Service is not allowed to do anything that would bring in money to the Service if that thing can be done by a commercial entity. In other words it can't compete with anyone or anything, so it can't come up with creative new ways to make money. As for UPS and FedEx, both companies could not exist without the Postal Service. Both only deliver to areas of the country that they can make money delivering to. They cherry pick their destinations. They dump their unprofitable mail into the Postal Service for delivery. Thus, the US Government subsidizes both UPS and FedEx shameless at the Postal Service's expense. Make the US Postal Service a commercial entity and both UPS and FedEx would have to pay much more for this benefit and they would undoubtedly fold. Add to this the unfair obligation to prefund at 5 billion dollars a year over ten years 75 years of healthcare costs to retirees, and maybe you can understand that the financial woes of the Postal Service are imposed from the outside and are not caused by the Postal Service itself. The Postal Service is comprised of hard working people who do the impossible task of sorting and delivering 154 billion pieces of mail per year six days a week to practically every address in the country and would do it profitably if allowed to do so. It functions 24/7/365 to deliver your mail. People should stop maligning it and Congress should take the fetters off.
  • by Tristfardd ( 626597 ) on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @09:13AM (#59945280)
    The Post Office could create an email system. Lots of people, me included, would pay good money to use such a system since it would be covered by the Office's authority and the privacy and tampering laws. There would be some differences between it and normal email, but secure email would be worth it. There should also be a way to pull normal post office operations away from companies such as FedEx and Amazon. Both do their best to keep the Post Office from competing fairly with them.

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