Want to read Slashdot from your mobile device? Point it at m.slashdot.org and keep reading!

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Music Media Government The Courts Your Rights Online News

Pew Study Says RIAA Tactics Are Working 399

Furd writes "The Pew Internet & American Life Project has posted a new data study that purports to show that the RIAA lawsuit strategy has successfully reduced P2P filesharing. While the presentation of the data is weak (poor graphics and weak statistics), the report does suggest that there has been a change in the usage of P2P tools."
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Pew Study Says RIAA Tactics Are Working

Comments Filter:
  • by Taboo ( 263223 ) * on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:28AM (#7879083)
    1. 2003 has seen the biggest emergence of legitimate pay-per-song services to date.
    2. The 4 p2p application listed in Pew's report (KaZaa, WinMX, BearShare and Grokster) will naturally lose marketshare due to the availablity of newer, more sophisticated applications.
    • by jdifool ( 678774 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:44AM (#7879162) Homepage Journal
      Hi,

      you said everything that was needed. Well done.
      But the question, now, is : why such a story is posted when this is self-evident than someone is going to refute the very content of the story ? Or is it just meant to allow us to put some more sarcasms to the RIAA ? I still wonder.
      Nothing to see here, move along.

      Regards,
      jdif

      • by TPFH ( 92944 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @05:30AM (#7879452) Homepage Journal
        why such a story is posted when this is self-evident than someone is going to refute the very content of the story ?

        Common sense isn't all that common, and understanding of statistics even less so. Sure, we know the statistics of the mainstream media, let alone the RIAA puppets, is a joke, but what about "regular people."

        Then again, even if the "regular people" believe this statistic, what good would it do the RIAA? Well, it might put more of the fear of lawsuits into them. My girlfriend worries that I might get sued, even though it is about the same odds as winning the lottery and I don't share RIAA music. Maybe the RIAA is hoping for a self-fulfilling prophecy.

        It seems futile to refute RIAA propaganda, but as they say, the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.

        Or is it just meant to allow us to put some more sarcasms to the RIAA ? I still wonder.

        Sarcasm of the RIAA can be entertaining.
        Articles about the RIAA attract readers.

        Is this new?
    • by epiphani ( 254981 ) <epiphani&dal,net> on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:32AM (#7879310)
      Just out of curiousity, short bittorrent - which requires a web-based torrent, what other 'more sophisticated' applications are you speaking of?

      I'd also like to add number three to that list:

      3. December is also a very busy time for just about everyone. Expecting people to be downloading mp3s just as much during the holiday season is just .. stupid.

      Sidenote: as a Canadian, I dont plan on buying a single CD or paying for a single song from the major labels while I'm paying a music industry tax on my blank media.
      • soulseek, direct connect, usenet, and probably other decently popular ones I can't think of. These aren't new or terribly sophisticated, but they're definitely there.
      • Comment removed (Score:5, Interesting)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @09:11AM (#7880152)
        Comment removed based on user account deletion
        • by Ryosen ( 234440 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @10:31AM (#7880630)
          I must have missed the memo...when did purchasing music become compulsory? If he doesn't want to buy a product, that is his decision as a consumer. But you raise an interesting point, one that I think underlines the basic problem with the music industry today. It seems that you, as a representative of the music industry, feel a sense of entitlement. It is apparent that you are under the impression that it is our civic responsibility to purchase your product without regard to whether we want your product or not. This is an unfortunate position but just goes to illustrate a fundamental and continuing flaw with the recording industry: not listening to and addressing the needs of its customers.

          You accuse the parent of "sticking it to" and "shafting it to" "the rest of the world" as if he is some sick, depraved individual whose actions exist with the sole intent of causing harm to everyone else. "How dare you not purchase my product!" you seem to say. You even go so far as to admit that you are in favor of legistlation mandating the subsidizing of the music industry by leveling a tax on people.

          Until you modify your attitude of entitlement and lose your contempt for your target market, your product will continue to become less relevant and desired.
        • by Dr. Evil ( 3501 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @10:49AM (#7880769)

          This tax benefits mainly folks like Celine Dion and Brian Adams and whomever sings those beer commercial songs. It doesn't benefit the artists of the rest of the world.

          First, it's not a tax. It's a levy, tarrif or royalty, depending on who you talk to.

          Second, it is imposed by international convention just about anywhere you would like to live. http://www.socan.ca/jsp/en/resources/around_world. jsp [socan.ca]. It is infact well-distributed around the world.

          Third, they succeeded in imposing a very similar system in the U.S., it happened twelve years ago. The RIAA http://www.riaa.com/issues/licensing/default.asp [riaa.com] is a member of the AARC, who admisters the royalties in the U.S. http://www.aarcroyalties.com/ [aarcroyalties.com].

          AHRA requires manufacturers of digital audio recorders and blank digital discs and tapes to pay royalties to the United States Copyright Office ("Copyright Office") for the benefit of eligible artists and sound recording copyright owners. This is to compensate artists and copyright owners for lost revenues because of the displaced sales caused by home taping.

          I don't really understand this stuff myself, but just check out the websites. They have lots of info up there about what they're doing and why.

          One thing I really don't understand, is why "Happy Birthday" can demand royalties direct through AOL/Time Warner, when systems like this are in place. Urban legend?

          • One difference is that in Canada you pay the media tax on any media (I believe), whereas the in the US we only pay the tax on blank MUSIC CDs. Which is why they are always more expensive than the blank DATA CDs.
    • This is not just simple correlation. There's an underlying *explanation* and the numbers simply support that explanation. Is it really surprising that with hundreds of people getting sued (high profile with full media coverage) for thousands of dollars each, P2P usage went down drastically?! The points you provide are additional valid explanations, especially (1) which the article points out anyway. But, IMO, your points don't tell the whole story about the huge declines in P2P the article documents, an
    • by yintercept ( 517362 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:34AM (#7879317) Homepage Journal
      Sorry, but I doubt the music industry launching a double front attack with law suits and rather expensive and less usable alternatives is that much of a coincidence.

      For that matter, the two pronged assault was probably orchestrated. To launch lawsuits without a replacement technology in place would be a losing strategy. Launching legitimate music channels while building a case against the anti-capitalist P2Pers would have weakened the case for built in copyright protection.

      You probably should ammend your post to say that both the lawsuit and pay per song services were part of the strategy, and that the strategy is working quite well at keeping the power in the hands of the few.

      Watching the free music crowd getting played for suckers was an extremely painful thing to watch...especially since their was a better option: If there was respect for the written laws, we could have had our MP3s and copied them to our MP3 player too. Hey, we may have even been in a better position to change the laws for the better.
      • the anti-capitalist P2Pers

        Newspeak! Double-plus un-good!

        I've been hearing quite a lot of this lately, from liberal and independent media sources. I don't think anyone is using the word capitalism correctly any more. Your particular use may have been sarcastic (it's hard to tell), but I'm reacting in a more general sense to all of the "anti-capitalist forces" out there who have been perverting a perfectly good word and turning it into a label for "the status quo", which they dislike. I can rant on thi
    • "1. 2003 has seen the biggest emergence of legitimate pay-per-song services to date."

      It's surprising that the RIAA's actions haven't prevented the success of these services.
  • New Tactics (Score:5, Interesting)

    by citizenc ( 60589 ) <caryNO@SPAMglidedesign.ca> on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:30AM (#7879097) Journal
    Yup, new tactics are being employed. For example, I built a nice private, encrypted peer-to-peer network using WASTE [sourceforge.net]. Kazaa, and all the viruses/fake files/incorrectly named files/spyware/trojans are a distant memory. ;)
    • Re:New Tactics (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Lumpy ( 12016 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @07:38AM (#7879804) Homepage
      I also see their tactics working... My private p2p group has had an influx of over 100 requests to be menbers. The usual request rate has traditionally been around 1-5 a month. unfortunately for these people, it's an invite only not a request to eliminate asshat's from the RIAA getting on the inside and trying to call all our legit songs illegal.

      because all we trade are indie bands that gave us the rights to trade their songs freely.... really!

      Our closed/encrypted group like you are going to form has worked for years. mostly it was formed to get away from the crap-quality mp3's out on kazaa and the others (192 bitrate is the absolute minimum quality accepted with CORRECT id3 tags and file naming)

      the RIAA is simply moving the people underground and out of their view.
      • "I also see their tactics working... My private p2p group has had an influx of over 100 requests to be menbers. The usual request rate has traditionally been around 1-5 a month. unfortunately for these people, it's an invite only not a request to eliminate asshat's from the RIAA getting on the inside and trying to call all our legit songs illegal.

        because all we trade are indie bands that gave us the rights to trade their songs freely.... really!"

        Well, if your private trading group only shares files tha

    • Re:New Tactics (Score:3, Insightful)

      by turnstyle ( 588788 )
      "Yup, new tactics are being employed. For example, I built a nice private, encrypted peer-to-peer network."

      fwiw, the RIAA would consider that a victory. Your community of a dozen or so users is far less of a threat than a community of millions.

      And if you personally set it all up, you may be personally liable...

  • bad statistics (Score:5, Insightful)

    by cyberwave ( 695555 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:30AM (#7879100)
    People who are stupid enough to respond to those surveys are also stupid enough to respond to the RIAA lawsuits.
  • I'm sure there are fewer users of Kazaa nowadays due to all the press that this campaign has had towards it.

    But there are still plenty of strong networks out there. I'm sure some of those Kazaa users have migrated over to them.
  • by Jah-Wren Ryel ( 80510 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:32AM (#7879111)
    From a smart business point of view (which is not necessarily that of the RIAA) it is not if there has been a reduction in freeloading downloads, but rather if there has been an increase in people paying money for music (physical CDs or paid downloads). Since those numbers are not being hyped all over the news, I'm willing to bet that the actual dollar numbers are still declining or at the very least not increasing in anywhere near the proportion of the decreased freeloading downloads.
    • by xophos ( 517934 )
      Well, what a surprise. The RIAA and international counterparts piss of everyone and then they think they are going to make more money? When you want People to buy something from you, you have to be nice to them, or at least pretend so. Here in Germany we have a huge media Campain that basicly says: If you copy cds or dvds you are a criminal and go to Jail.
      Not only is this hugely exagerated, it is a plain lie. The only chance of going to jail for that, is when you charge money for it.
      But they think they kan
    • CD sales from everyone I know is the same as before... The cd's are too expensive, the music is too crappy, and the RIAA bands are hated.

      there IS an increase in buying used music at used disc stores though. the two that I frequent has had a major increase in traffic cince november.

      I'll buy used RIAA music. but only indie bands are getting my cash for new purchases.
  • My opinion... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by SB5 ( 165464 ) <freebirdpat@hotm[ ].com ['ail' in gap]> on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:34AM (#7879116)
    I know that Kazaa has been flooded with tons of bad song files. The popular ones at least. Record companies have found out that for a hash on a song it does the first 300kb or something and then uses it exponentially.

    I don't know of any other fairly popular file sharing program that you can find anything with, also it seems to be that there have been success with online music purchasing, specifically iTunes with 25 million songs downloaded.

    Not really big news, everyone knew if the companies offered a dollar per song, and this is years ago, napster-era stuff, that people would buy it, but the record companies wanted to buck the consumer and squeeze that last few pennies out by not changing the industry despite what the people actually wanted.
    • Agreed. Though sometimes I use WinMX [winmx.com] still (it's nowhere near as polluted as Kazaa), I generally prefer AllOfMP3.com [allofmp3.com] which while slightly sketchy is still less sketchy than P2P services, and the quality is far, far, far better. Also the low price on AllOfMP3 gets me buying lots of music I would otherwise probably never hear and certainly wouldn't buy. Occasionally I frequent iTunes, though a buck a song still feels too expensive to me, and the M4P format, while far better than WMA, is still annoying. Or
    • "Not really big news, everyone knew if the companies offered a dollar per song, and this is years ago, napster-era stuff, that people would buy it..."

      No, I don't believe the sweetspot is $1/song. Think about it, for $1/song and a typical 15-song album, that's $15. Not that different for what you'd pay in a store for a physical copy (which you can easily rip), cover art, lyrics, etc. I think the online sweetspot wil be around $0.50.

  • People are weak. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by DroopyStonx ( 683090 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:34AM (#7879117)
    It's truly sad to see so many people buckle under the pressure of the RIAA. It just makes the RIAA think they're getting what they want and makes them that much more delusional.

    Oh well, just a matter of time before highly encrypted and anonymous P2P hits the masses. Then we can all lean back and smile as they scurry about trying to stop it.
    • Oh well, just a matter of time before highly encrypted and anonymous P2P hits the masses.

      Without a doubt.

      I'd wager that the plaintext-and-public P2P networks are declining in direct proportion to an increase in the popularity of encrypted-and-(somewhat-)private networks. Stopping people who want to swap files will be every bit as difficult as stopping spammers. The infrastructure is just too well suited to the application.

  • Thats because we have all the good songs on our hard drives already, nothing new lately is worth trading.
    • That is not funny, it is insightful.

      I (*ahem*) did a lot of downloading in 2002 (out of US, no legal online services), but in 2003, I've already got most stuff I would want, so I stopped. Or mostly stopped :)
  • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:35AM (#7879123)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by JeffSh ( 71237 ) <jeffslashdot&m0m0,org> on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:35AM (#7879125)
    Well, I guess that depends on your definition of "working"

    it may be working to reduce P2P, but is it also working to reduce sales of records, or also working to alienate their customers? it has with me, i guess it remains to be seen whether thats the case with sales figures 6-12 months from now.
  • Bad Statistics! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by cyberwave ( 695555 )
    People who are stupid enough to respond to those surveys are also stupid enough to respond to the RIAA lawsuits and pay for music. Furthermore, this year has seen the rise of many legitimate music download services! You can't measure something and then point the finger to whatever cause is convienient!
  • Just like how the RIAA blame poor sales on piracy instead of the economy and crappy music, the reason why p2p sharing is going down can also be because of crappy music and the economy (ppl not being able to afford broadband anymore or the storage space or spend their time working menial jobs to survive, etc.)

    Just because it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, doesn't ALWAYS mean that it is...it can be a penguin in a duck suit. (lil' linux joke, btw).
  • kazaalite (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    More likely the action to cut off kazaalite (by the owners of Kazaa) has had more effect then legal action against consumers by the RIAA.

    There is no way in hell I will install that spyware invested crap called Kazaa Media Desktop.

    And Gnutella is way too slow over a modem, which is still the predominant form of Internet access. (Well it was when I last tried it)
  • by narratorDan ( 137402 ) <narratordan@gmail.com> on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:43AM (#7879155)
    Which tactic is working? Suing the crap out of d/l'rs or the rise in legitimate sources of online music?

    Or it could be the other reason, I've got all the songs I want.

    NarratorDan
    • I'm betting it's a twofold effect, if I were using any p2p networks recently I would definitely be apprehensive, the last p2p I used more than passingly was the old Napster and I hated it, broken and misripped and mislabeled files really piss me off. On the other hand the fact you CAN find legit music online is probably helping somewhat too. Though $1 a song is still a little bit on what I'd consider the "kinda expensive" side of things, when it hits $.30-.40 per song I might even start using a service li
    • I've got all the songs I want.

      I truly, truly pity anyone who could say such a thing. You need friends like me who constantly bug you to listen to some new band.
    • by Charles Dodgeson ( 248492 ) <jeffrey@goldmark.org> on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:25AM (#7879297) Homepage Journal
      Which tactic is working? Suing the crap out of d/l'rs or the rise in legitimate sources of online music?
      From the data presented, I don't see a way to tell. But I wouldn't rule out the heavy handed RIAA tactics as making a substantial contribution. Anecdotally, there were an enormous number of people who simply didn't know that their "sharing" activity was unlawful. I've overheard and talked to enough people prior to the lawsuits who thought it was legal to believe that the misconception was very widespread.

      My speculation is that the RIAA tactics did have a substantial effect, but only with the availability of alternative download mechanisms. In statistical terms the legal online music stores played a substantial moderating role in the causal relation between the high-publicity RIAA actions and the results reported.

      With the right sort of data, it would be possible to test this speculation. Pew does things fairly well, and they may additional data which could be used to check it out.

      Just because we despise the tactics of the RIAA and the structure of the music industry as a whole, doesn't mean that we have to pretend that their tactics couldn't have worked.

  • Biased (Score:4, Insightful)

    by CelticWhisper ( 601755 ) <celticwhisperNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:44AM (#7879157)
    Call me paranoid, but is it really that far-fetched a notion that the RIAA may have had considerable direct influence over what was written in that report? The more people write that the RIAA's tactics are working, the more other people will begin to believe that it's true, and it could potentially mean more people being scared away from using P2P to acquire music.

    Of course, this says nothing for uncopyrighted, public-domain, or non-RIAA music, but given that the RIAA has had a history of using sledgehammers to swat flies, I daresay they'd be happier just stomping out P2P altogether than they would be with just getting their own music off of it.

    • Call me paranoid, but is it really that far-fetched a notion that the RIAA may have had considerable direct influence over what was written in that report?

      Nah... I would have thought that it is in the RIAA's best interests to claim that P2P filesharing is at an all-time high. That would be more in line with their other extravagant claims with regards to music swapping and declining sales. "105% of all Americans are using P2P! There are active music pirate rings in kindergartens! Terrorist camps are b

  • by aSiTiC ( 519647 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:44AM (#7879160) Homepage
    I'd like to see an equally 'fuzzy' Excel graph of the increase in BitTorrent and eDonkey/eMule statistics. I would venture to guess that the sums of the total would be equal to or greater than the usage of KaZaA before RIAA lawsuits.

    I personally know that my friends are quickly moving to eMule due to the degradation of KaZaA's usability. They are having no difficulty in migrating to eMule's interface. Perhaps the RIAA should realize that attacking one source doesn't effect other sources, especially with today's computer literate college youth.

    • by Babbster ( 107076 ) <aaronbabb&gmail,com> on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:01AM (#7879222) Homepage
      Say it loud. Since installing Windows XP (I know, I know, Microsoft is evil) when Windows 98 passed my pain threshold, I've ONLY used eDonkey and BitTorrent. The latter in particular has the advantage that it's not as much a 24/7 proposition as other solutions. I typically leave a Torrent open long enough to give 2:1 to 3:1 ratios of upload:download and then I close out. There's also a legal advantage to the individual in that even if the RIAA/MPAA/etc. found me sharing/downloading, they're at most going to catch me with an album or three as opposed to every MP3 on my hard drive - this of course limits my potential liability if the RIAA files suit (and in fact makes such a suit far less attractive in a cost/benefit analysis).

      It would be interesting if they could actually identify the people who stopped using the file-sharing programs they looked at. It might correspond to the more tech-savvy geeks who've moved on to better things.

  • Actually.... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by BeerSlurpy ( 185482 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:45AM (#7879166)
    The study shows that usage of P2P networks known to be heavily monitored by RIAA is down. This makes perfect sense to both the RIAA and to me, but the WHY is what makes all the difference.</merovingian> To admit why the traffic is really down would show that RIAA is hopelessly sliding into the abyss. It is so much easier for them to lie to themselves and their shareholders and say they are crushing the P2P threat to their business model.

    But the p2p hydra has many heads.

    RIAA is largely blind to the activity going on in the other networks, most of which are much harder to quickly traverse than gnutella or kazaa. Also, I imagine that no one has written a spidering program for them yet.

    The other networks are flourishing right now. Without naming networks, the server count for my favorite p2p network is much higher than normal, as is the user count and the download speed. No one has gotten a warning letter or sued yet for activity on this network, to the best of my knowledge, although some german and spanish ISPs have begun to block the ports it uses.

    Extra credit: Can you guess a name for this new network?
    • by Anonymous Coward
      But the p2p hydra has many heads.

      I've seen the videos you're talking about, but those are really more prehensile phalluses with mouths.

      Be careful what you search for, you just might find it.
  • Usenet (Score:2, Informative)

    by egg troll ( 515396 )
    Not to sound pretentious but most of the music I listen too isn't readily found on P2P apps. Instead I get it from Usenet. ( Easynews.com [easynews.com] offers 30 days worth of newsgroups access including binaries for $10/month and has definitely been worth it.)

    The only downside is that you can only download what other people have posted. But if you ask nicely someone will usually upload whatever obscure album [pair.com] I'm looking for after a couple of days. In a way, its like a IRC trading with REALLY REALLY bad lag. :)

  • by c.r.o.c.o ( 123083 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:53AM (#7879197)
    ... but not because of the RIAA, but simply because the process of finding the albums I liked was almost impossible. The tedious process of finding the songs, downloading them and then repeating the process if the rip was of poor quality or incomplete was not worth my time anymore.

    That is not to say that I started buying CDs all of a sudden, far from it. The last CD I bought was more than three years ago (RATM, Battle of LA), and the only reason I did it was because it was my favourite band and I decided to show my support to them. I had the same album in mp3s since the day it came out.

    This has been discussed numerous times on /. but I thought it's worth mentioning again. When the RIAA will start changing its abusive tactics towards technology in general, then I _might_ consider buying another CD from them. Even then, I have everything ever played by my favourite rock bands, I have a lot of classical music, blues, jazz. And since of late I've been more interested in DJ mixes that are not even available on CD anywhere (try buying DJ Tiesto or DJ Sasha to name just some very well known people), but only on specialised sites or through other friends, I'm even less likely to buy one of the RIAA CDs.

    So unless they will actually release interesting, creative music (instead of Britney et al), I couldn't care less about the RIAA's problems. The one way it did affect me was through the levy imposed on mp3 players in Canada, but you can always buy them from private individuals that bring them over straight from HK or Japan. But that's another can of worms, and it's off topic under this article.
  • Inevitable? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Kobayashi Maru ( 721006 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:59AM (#7879209)
    I hate to admit it, but I do think that the RIAA will ultimately win this battle. Much as consumers accepted a higher price with the arrival of casette tapes, then CDs, some form of DRM will probably win out.

    I've heard the argument that consumers will not accept paying for an intangible (that is, no physical object). But the iTunes model allows the consumer, in a limited way, control over the physical. From their purchase, they burn their physical dividend. One could argue that the consumer gains *more* through DRM/license-ware, as some plans allow the consumer to burn multiple CDs.

    Most of the people I know (by that, I mean average, largely non-technical) still buy the occasional CD. They hate the RIAA in the abstract for Napster, but it does not stop them from buying. More and more have given up on P2P. Whether it's fear of a lawsuit or general hastle of finding Top-40, it just isn't worth their time anymore.

    The RIAA doesn't need to destroy P2P, that would be impossible. All it needs to do is break it sufficiently to make their "alternative" more attractive. I personally believe thing will reach an equilibrium, eventually. P2P will always be around, in some form, for the dedicated. The RIAA will be sure to quash anything before it reaches critical mass. While on the other hand, DRM-ware will evolve into something more accomodating.
    • Are you kidding? The RIAA will never win. One person pays for music. Minijack from audio out right back to audio in. Audio in saves MP3. Everybody has the song. As long as you can hear the song, there is an easy way to copy it. Duh.

      Many people will always pirate popular music out of spite of the RIAA (like me).

      Their unlawful methods are also under investigation right now. The RIAA is not, and will not win in any way, shape or form as you wrongly predict.
    • I disagree. The difference between the situation back in the days of casette tape/CD and now is that that now there's a viable (one could say superior in some aspects), cheap alternative.
  • by GrandCow ( 229565 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:00AM (#7879216)
    I still download music without paying for it. I probably download more now than ever. The funny thing is I still buy the music that I think is good enough to hear more than once or twice.

    Do I use Kazaa? hell no! I have to download 10 versions of a song just to get the "real" version of it... the one without some weird sound effects or just being the first 10 seconds repeated for the 4 minutes that the song should really be.

    Welcome to bittorrent land. I'll not post the URL from the server I use regularly for obvious reasons, but rest assured I can get more there than I could with Kazaa anyday. Now I download whole albums at a time instead of just 1 or 2 songs in order to determine if a record is worth buying.

    The great thing about bittorrent is that if people find that a song or album is fake they just stop sharing it. All of a sudden that album that should have 2000 people sharing it because it's so good only has 2 people sharing it (and they'll stop as soon as they unzip it and listen). That tells me to pass and find the real version.

    I hope the RIAA realizes that instead of ending the problem they just made it burrow deeper. This time there is no centralized network that they can shut down in order to maximize profits from the unsuspecting consumer. If they kill one, 5 more will show up in it's place. I hope they are happy with what they have caused to be created.

    Right now, the networks are small. Remember how small Napster or Kazaa began as? What happened a few months to a year later? Exactly... Expect 2004 or 2005 to be the year of bittorrent (or another decentralized network)
    • by GrodinTierce ( 571882 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:54AM (#7879371) Journal
      While 2004 or 2005 may be the "Year of BitTorrent", you seem to be mistaking BT for a decentralized network. While it may be more difficult for the RIAA to locate the servers that host the trackers, and new ones will inevitably pop up, the hassle of keeping up to date with BT servers is really all the RIAA needs; I doubt they've ever seriously imagined stopping all filesharing, but simply making it too much of a hassle/complicated for Joe Sixpack.

      Also, I think that there is a common misunderstanding, particularly in the (big, scary) world outside of /., that America's youth (in general) are simply guaranteed to grow up computer-literate. While they may be more comfortable with computers than their parents, they're rarely much more knowledgable.

      Although BT itself is pretty transparent, just click the link and download, actually finding usable torrents for content can be surprisingly difficult. With Kazaa, it's just open it up, search, and get many, many results (which used to be generally good, in terms of quality and authenticity, but the probability of success is decreasing), and then click. The fact that Kazaa (and Napster before it) was so transparent and simple was part of the reason so many college-students left it on, without even bothering to limit their upload.

      However, to be fair, I think you're right about the trend towards decentralized networks, and I must admit, I'm not very familiar with eMule/eDonkey, but it does sound promising.

  • I wonder... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by SharpFang ( 651121 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:08AM (#7879247) Homepage Journal
    ...if they took shut down off Kazaa Lite into account.
  • I don't doubt that the scare tactics have worked, and casual P2P users have been scared off. I have friends who are just now getting DSL lines and are scared to death to load up Kazaa or Limewire out of fear that the sheriffs will immediately knock down their doors. But I'll also bet there's a large number of people who've been there since the Napster days, who have hundreds of gigs of mp3 files they'll never get around to listening to. P2P activity might also be levelling off because so many users have
  • by PotatoHead ( 12771 ) <doug.opengeek@org> on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:18AM (#7879279) Homepage Journal
    I will, on occasion use a P2P service, though I keep it short and sweet. Never did use P2P big however, so the change is minor in that the frequency went down a bit.

    Why use P2P? Got addicted to the variety of music present on Napster. You know, find a user with similar tastes, then grap a couple tracks you don't know, but might like. That's fun stuff that is just too damn expensive to do otherwise.

    The new pay services make it pretty easy to get a lot of music, but fall way short in the finding new music area... Rock from the Aussies, techno / house / trance from Europe and Japan is very appealing to me. Didn't know that until Napster. In a way, I kind of wish I didn't given all the majors mistakes today.

    I am not sure they are going to like the bigger changes however. When P2P started, I would exchange song titles with friends. Each person would just grab a copy because that was easiest. Now we are all back to the old way of doing things; namely, trading tracks directly.

    How?

    Ssh, scp directly from machine to machine. The music I do buy, and I do buy music just as I always have, gets ripped. Stuff I think friends might find interesting, or that ends up part of a discussion gets traded instead of just named. The stuff that comes from P2P gets hashed around and played a bit. If it's good, I buy it, then trade the quality encodes from that with whomever was interested during the critique stage. So in the end, most of the costs are there with time and distance being less of a factor. Nice improvement over dubbing parties, but it could be way better.

    A while back, we were helping a small group master a CD. Sometimes it is hard to articulate production values when some people are missing the tracks in question, for example. We could lend physical media, but why? We have nicely networked computers that save a lot of time, it is foolish not to use them. Afterall, the production is happening over the Internet, why not foster the discussion as well? This sort of sharing is a totally necessary thing and can get expensive if done the way they think we should do it. The really creative folks need stuff to create from. This means a lot more music to listen to, discuss and build style influences from. If everybody hears the same top 100 crap, then we are going to get more top 100 crap --exactly what we don't need to sustain a healthy music market. P2P really helps with that, maybe it shouldn't, but the truth is it does.

    Personally, I think P2P is great stuff for learning about music. It also works well for lots of other things like software, though torrents are better for new or popular software. The Apple model is a good one, though its a shame Apple and the artists do not get a bit more of the cut.

    It has been mentioned many times here, but I will say it again. The majors are fools plain and simple. If they had taken the Napster deal, they would be rolling in dough right now with monthly subscriptions and marketing data up the wazoo that we paid to give them! But, nooo they want control. Today they pay the price. Lots of lawyers, annoyed customers, and the confines of age all doom them to lackluster sales and growing vulnerabltiy to potential newcomers who get it.

    People all over the place are making interesting music with inexpensive equipment. Mp3.com was a first attempt to aggragate them and present them to potential listeners. It worked, but not well. Others will follow, just as the P2P clients evolve, so will they. As they get it right, the majors will be sooo sorry.

    I have traded tracks all my life starting with cassette and a bit of reel to reel. For me, nothing has changed really. Napster was a brief flurry that likely cost them a few sales, but the real cost was my newly opened eyes to the real diversity in music I was missing out on. I buy music in about the same quantities I always have; namely, small quantities because good albums are few and far between, I would buy a lot more If I could get it at
  • by IshanCaspian ( 625325 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:21AM (#7879285) Homepage
    They have the effect of imposing natural selection on our P2P networks. Those that have vulnerable infrastructure will fall, and ones that do not will prosper. Sure, they are accomplishing their goal in the shortest of short terms, but they're creating the motivation and inspiration for unstoppable, anonymous pirate networks. It may look like the music industry is getting healthier, but they're just encouraging the creation of a bigger, badder bug.
  • Worked on me (Score:3, Interesting)

    by rosewood ( 99925 ) <rosewood@@@chat...ru> on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:25AM (#7879294) Homepage Journal
    Im on a dedicated university connection. I can not afford for the RIAA to sniff my way. I have a few connections to a few FTPs that get current music AND when I am at lunch I have access to someone's WAP and I download when I am there. My download habbits have gone from a new album a week and then some to about a new album a month in 2003.

    Ive also started using Winamp5's Internet Radio more often then not...

  • By now any serious downloader would have downloaded his/her favorite songs and collected a few GBs. And maybe the new music is just not worth downloading. It would have been interesting to see if the decrease in file-sharing resulted in any increase in CD sales but the CD sales data is missing from the study.

    It may be working but these tactics must be costing RIIA some money and the increase in revenue from CD sales may be hard to come.
  • What? (Score:3, Informative)

    by Arcturax ( 454188 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:29AM (#7879305)
    Poor graphics? A study doesn't have to be prettied up to be a good study.

    I think that mainstream P2P may have gone down. However underground P2P is going waaaay up. All the RIAA has done is to force this underground. The Pew study likely doens't look at the underground methods. I think most of us know what software I mean.

    But let them think they've won. Hopefully it will blind them to reality and hasten their well deserved end.
  • In my highschool all my my friends are somewhat scared they're going to be on the hitlist, so they've completely stopped their sharing of pop and hip-hop music. Some teachers at my schools have actually been trying hard to persuade students not to "download music from the internet anymore", which is complete bullshit. Recently I've noticed, that RIAA's original message "Do not share popular music on p2p networks", is now somehow been popularized as "Do not download music from the internet". I have no idea h
  • by the-banker ( 169258 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:47AM (#7879352)
    Though it doesn't completely discredit the research, there are flaws (one large, one not so large) that are immediately evident.

    1. It was a telephone survey, which by law excludes the sampling of minors. All anecdotal research I have seen is that minors make up a significant population of online file traders. It is my opinion that this segment of the population could have a serious impact on the results.

    2. The fact that the research is conducted during a time when the RIAA is efectively criminalizing file sharing will motivate people to answer dishonestly for fear of being "tagged" a copyright violator. When a survey relies on an honest answer to be an admission of criminal activity, people will not be as forthright with their answers.

    I don't think that this would change the overall answer, that copyrighted file trading is down, but I think it would sigificantly impact the degree of its decrease. I think the Pew Internet research is most likely overstating the impact of the lawsuits.

    Which actually raises another issue - how much of the decline can be attributed to other factors, such as:

    1. Poor music released in 4th qtr 2003

    2. Increased self-regulation of file sharing in the University/College segment

    3. Filesharing becoming "old news" - basically the idea that everyone gets a TON of music when they first discover file sharing, then taper off as the previous 3 months of new music is no where near the volume of multiple decades of music people were grabbing at the outset.

    4. The proliferation of licensed online music distribution, such as iTunes, Napster 2.0, etc

    All in all I would conclude that the research has limited usefulness in measuring the effects of RIAA subpoena activity.

  • by 91degrees ( 207121 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @04:56AM (#7879378) Journal
    That instances of jaywalking are lower in a police state.

    I don't doubt the statistics, but are threats of disproportionate punishment really the way a civilised society should behave?
  • So... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    ...blackmail works - what's new?

    Mike

    Cloudburst Bar [freewebsitehosting.com]
  • Maybe I'm just out of touch, but it doesn't feel like we've had a slew of new 'hit' albums released this year. Even music trading is based on influx of new content.
  • More accurately (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Sarojin ( 446404 )
    The study shows that usage of P2P networks known to be heavily monitored by RIAA is down. This makes perfect sense to both the RIAA and to me, but the WHY is what makes all the difference. To admit why the traffic is really down would show that RIAA is hopelessly sliding into the abyss. It is so much easier for them to lie to their shareholders and say they are crushing the P2P threat to their business model.

    But the P2P coin has many sides.

    RIAA is largely blind to the activity going on in the other networ
  • They cannot claim to have been effective merely by a change in peer-to-peer traffic volumes. To demonstrate true effectiveness they have to demonstrate a statistically significant surge in CD sales.
    • P2P usage down and legitimate purchase numbers up would mean that the music industries are doing something right.

      P2P usage down and legitimate purchases down means that they's getting it so wrong that they're stuff's too crap for even lazy people to want to download.
      Not exactly a good marketing method.

      As to which it is, I won't hazard a guess. But I get the sneaking suspicion it ain't the reason the RIAA thinks it is.

      Tiggs
  • Ok, this one's kind of out there, but I think I've came up with the real reason file sharing is going down. Stick with me here. Now, you know as well as I do "piracy" (thought pirates had to have sabers and cool hats) doesn't really hurt CD sells by and large. If anything, it helps good artists/bands that aren't well known and pushes them. Take Darude and ATB for example. Before internet file sharing really picked up, they were known by some, but not many people. Now, practiaclly everyone has either heard o
    • Y'know, you raise a very good point there.

      The RIAA tactics don't scare me one bit. Buy or download? Either way, I'll only get the music I want. And I've not done a huge amount of either recently. There' nothing I really want to "spend" the bandwidth/discspace on at the moment.

      Hell, the only 2 CDs I've bought recently were two I've had on MP3 for many months and thought perhaps I should get a legit copy.

      And even the stuff I've downloaded isn't that new. More like I found random MP3s from an older disc i g
      • Exactly my points. My last 3 downloads, which spans about 6 months in time:
        1. One Of A Kind (Rob Van Dam's Theme) - Breaking Point
        2. Baby Got Back - Sir Mixalot
        3. Dancin' With Myself - Billy Idol

        As you can see, either very old stuff, or a little obscure. And the 2 CDs I did buy last year were both ones I already had MP3s of for a while, but bought for the music video DVDs and nice artworks, and lyrics. And as you point out, oh no! The RIAA MAY sue me (though, we're still not sure if they can even win in court, as n

  • Should be applaud RIAA for stopping violations of the law when everyone said they couldn't? Or should we contribute to projects that develop encrypted P2P untracable through plausible deniability? I think this is separate from the question weather CDs are too expensive or singers are too poor.

    On one hand, giving some data to other people is a form of free speech and once people can accept its illegal, they can also accept a pretty scary society. On the other hand, most of us spend the day writting programs
  • Maybe they mean that since the RIAA started prosecuting file-sharers, there is less observable file-sharing.

    W.A.S.T.E. , anyone?
  • Why should they care if P2P usage is decreasing? It doesn't mean they are making more money. In fact, the lawsuits are costing them money in the long run (lawyers fees, propaganda campaign, etc.).

    If they had shown that CD sales had gone up, that would be useful to them. But if P2P usage goes down and CD sales are still slumping, that can mean several things:

    Their arguments about P2P causing drops in CD sales holds less water.

    Their artists are getting less exposure, not more.

    The "benefits" they recei

  • Good (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Junior J. Junior III ( 192702 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @08:25AM (#7879946) Homepage
    Now when CD sales continue to slump, the RIAA will have to find something else to blame.
  • Not quite (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Epistax ( 544591 ) <epistax@g[ ]l.com ['mai' in gap]> on Monday January 05, 2004 @08:48AM (#7880047) Journal
    What has the RIAA been targetting? I've only heard of them suing Kazaa users, and so I assume that's all they are polling. There are many other platforms in use.

    Also what are their polling tactics? Do they call people up "We are the RIAA, do you share music?" Who the hell is going to say "Why yes, would you like the new {insert generic band} album?".

    I personally have not noticed a change in number of people sharing, or any individuals who have stopped. I have to cry social norming on this one. Social norming is when you lie and say people are doing what you want them to, then people will fall in line and actually do it. As with the posters at our school that say the average freshman has "0 - 2 drinks at a party", bullshit.
  • by nurb432 ( 527695 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @09:11AM (#7880154) Homepage Journal
    Just what we all need. Helping them "prove" what the are doing is just and effective.

    Anything can be 'proven' if you extrapolate out of context, even when the ultimate conclusion is false.
  • Must Admin (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Nazadus ( 605794 )
    It's working for me, I stopped sharing and downloading. However, I also haven't bought a CD from them in uhh.... uhh.... can't remember. I used to have a MASSIVE collection of cd's. I'm only 20 years old and already stopped buying from them... they lost any potential from me. A friend of mine told me of some place about an hour drive away with about the same msuic, except much cheaper and don't deal with the recording industry. The recording industry shot themselves in the foot, much like the oil industry i
  • by Ride-My-Rocket ( 96935 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @10:36AM (#7880662) Homepage
    Yes, it's true -- I really haven't downloaded as much music during the past year. But I also only purchased one CD during all of 2003, and that was Radiohead's "Hail To The Thief", which I got for my girlfriend after going to see them live in NJ a few month's ago. In fact, I went ahead and sold back all of my old CDs to http://www.wherehouse.com/ [wherehouse.com], in exchange for store credit, which I then used to purchase a whole messload of DVDs.

    I wonder who/what the RIAA will blame if this double-helix trend of decreasing file-sharing / decreasing CD sales continues for a few more years. In the meantime, I'll continue to purchase games and DVDs, which provide more bang for my buck than comparably-priced, more heavily restricted CDs.
  • by Thedalek ( 473015 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @11:38AM (#7881151)
    A new nationwide phone survey of 1,358 Internet users from November 18-December 14 by the Pew Internet & American Life Project showed that the percentage of music file downloaders had fallen to 14% (about 18 million users) from 29% (about 35 million)...

    Over the next 6 months, expect the RIAA to officially request the names of each and every person who participated in the poll, so that they too can be sued/threatened.
  • Pew (Score:3, Funny)

    by poot_rootbeer ( 188613 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @01:04PM (#7881880)

    I have results to share from my own "pew" study... it concludes that the RIAA's tactics STINK.
  • by Funksaw ( 636954 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @03:23PM (#7883257)
    RIAA's tactics, of course, has changed whether or not people will file-share.

    Hell, I quit myself and I told my friends and family to quit until the whole thing blows over (which, after the court case knocking out RIAA vs. Verizon) it seems close to doing.

    However, everytime I told people this, I also told them about the false arrests, and the fact that they're suing 12 year olds from the projects, and said "If you want them to stop, stop buying CDs."

    Then I point them at CDBaby.

    I've bought more albums in the past 8 months since they've started this crap than I have in my entire life - and NONE of them have been from RIAA member labels.

    Oh, also...

    That doesn't mean that stopping P2P stops downloading. Newsgroups and IRC are still going strong, and are only bolstered by this.

    The RIAA's strategy just doesn't work on a fundimental level. The only people who are going to be informed enough of the strategy to be frightened are going to be frightened enough to be pissed at the labels and not buy their stuff.

    -- Funksaw
  • I'm done sharing (Score:3, Insightful)

    by PetoskeyGuy ( 648788 ) on Monday January 05, 2004 @05:20PM (#7884476)
    Seriously I think I have every song I could ever want. I haven't had to load up eMule for a weeks. Christmas songs, books on tape, science lectures... it's all there. I suppose I'm getting old, but nothing I've heard on the radio in the past month sounds any good at all.

    My last batch of downloads I can recall was trying to find something new. Polynesian and asian music, some french stuff I can't understand, but it sounds good. I wonder how many other people have sort of had their fill and are taking a break.
  • by gatkinso ( 15975 ) on Tuesday January 06, 2004 @10:22AM (#7890608)
    ...come to think of it.

    Now that you can legally buy music online, people are (or atleast seem to be).

    Why did it take the misuc industry meatheads so long to offer a legal alternative for something people clearly wanted (and were willing to pay for)?

What is research but a blind date with knowledge? -- Will Harvey

Working...