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White House Rejects Fed Staff Outlook, Says No Sign of Recession (bloomberg.com) 124

Posted by msmash from the how-about-that dept.
The White House said Thursday that data does not indicate a US recession is on the horizon, rebuffing Federal Reserve staff economists who forecast a minor contraction starting later this year. From a report: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said job numbers and consumer spending are strong and chalked it up to President Joe Biden's economic plans, waving off a recession risk. "We're seeing the success of his plans, and recent economic indicators are not consistent with a recession or even a pre-recession," Jean-Pierre said Thursday when asked about the Fed forecast. Federal Reserve minutes published Wednesday indicated that "the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years."

Still, Fed officials appear on track to extend their run of interest-rate hikes, shrugging off the warning. Jean-Pierre pointed to job gains, the unemployment rate and consumer spending as indicators. She also said that inflation has been falling, though it remains well above target and may spur more Fed hikes, raising the chance of a recession. Still, the spokeswoman contradicted the warning of the Fed staff. "Those are the indicators that show us that we are not headed to a recession or a pre-recession," she said.
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White House Rejects Fed Staff Outlook, Says No Sign of Recession More

White House Rejects Fed Staff Outlook, Says No Sign of Recession

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  • Performance Review (Score:5, Insightful)

    by haunebu ( 16326 ) on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:19AM (#63446544) Homepage

    Ah, the old Jedi Mind Trick. "There is no recession."

    The next time my manager gives me a performance review I'm going to reject that, too. "I did a great job this year. You're going to give me a raise and a promotion."

    • Re:Performance Review (Score:4, Funny)

      by base3 ( 539820 ) on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:21AM (#63446556)
      I was picturing it more at the Iraqi information minister saying it.

    • Ah, the old Jedi Mind Trick. "There is no recession."

      There are people here that insist that the media as a whole is hostile to the current Administration, and are trying to essentially gaslight the United States into a recession. And they believe this passionately.

    • doesn't mean there's a recession. Recession means the economy isn't growing. It is. It's growing fine. All the gains are going to the top thanks to price gouging driven inflation by monopolies.

      The right wing of America just got a lesson in anti-trust law. They had one of their usual hissy fits over a moral panic when Bud Lite had a trans girl shill their beer. In addition to the usual antics of shooting bud lite they just bought with guns for the sake of virtue signaling they went around buy up "unwoke"
      • So if only the billionaires and large corps are doing well who are they selling their shitty beer to?

    • nearly a year ago. In July of last year the US recorded its second consecutive quarter of negative growth. This was the traditional start of a recession. Every time this has ever happened, the administration at the time, whether Republican or Democrat, was forced by economists and the press to concede that we were in a recession. It's only in the post-Trump-election era that the rules have been upended. Last summer when it was announced that the traditional rule said "recession!", the Biden administration r

  • Credit (Score:5, Interesting)

    by aardvarkjoe ( 156801 ) on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:30AM (#63446574)

    White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said job numbers and consumer spending are strong and chalked it up to President Joe Biden's economic plans, waving off a recession risk.

    So, if Biden is going to take the credit if a recession is avoided, will he step up and take the blame if there is a recession after all?

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      So, if Biden is going to take the credit if a recession is avoided, will he step up and take the blame if there is a recession after all?

      No, that'll be Trump's fault.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Virtucon ( 127420 )

      Naw they'll just change the definition again. Vaccine, and Recession they're all just words that are mutable depending on who's in power.

      • Naw they'll just change the definition again. Vaccine, and Recession they're all just words that are mutable depending on who's in power.

        "We've always been at war with Pfizer".

      • there's no changing that definition. Unlike the shenanigans we play with Inflation to make it look better or worse when we want to hurt everyday Americans with pointless Interest rate hikes, "recession" is very well defined.

        That said, it doesn't really matter if we go into recession or not except that our masters will fire us and leave us without food/shelter. But as far as whether the economy grows or not our standard of living has been disconnected from the growth of the economy for 40 years, ever sin

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by dbialac ( 320955 )
          The issue right now is that inflation is beating the rate of growth, so while the dollars are growing, the actual outcome is shrinking.

        • By definition, we dipped [nber.org], and as long as unemployment numbers stay low then they won't officially say the economy is contracting. If the Feds keep printing dollars and spending recklessly it will become worse hear within a year.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by cb88 ( 1410145 )
      The thing is strong consumer spending doesn't mean consumers are GETTING anything. Inflation has forced consumers to spend but they aren't getting but about half of what they were getting for the same money in many markets (housing, food, fuel, the essentials are through the roof nationally).

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by ranton ( 36917 )

      So, if Biden is going to take the credit if a recession is avoided, will he step up and take the blame if there is a recession after all?

      Do you expect any politician to take blame for a recession or refuse to take credit for a strong economy? I've never seen it. Being a politician is 80% public relations and 20% governing.

      If there is a recession, it's up to economists to identify the causes, not politicians. They are likely going to determine it was 15 years of "free" money which caused an economic bubble, and probably determine that Covid was the catalyst which eventually burst the bubble (by finally causing enough inflation to end the free

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by mspohr ( 589790 )

      The Fed is working feverishly to put the US into a recession to combat inflation. Their only tool is interest rates and so far they have killed banks, and damaged the housing market and many businesses.
      The President has little power in this battle (other than signing or vetoing legislation). Congress passed the IRA, Chips Act, etc. which are strong forces to improve the economy.
      So far, the economy seems to be resisting but it will be an epic battle.

    • Biden is doing what he can, but he's not a godling. And, well, you're not helping. From your snarky post I can tell that if you voted at all you voted Republican. Or at least for the right wing party in your country.

      That same right wing party is what's causing the recession. In America a right wing head of the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to trigger layoffs. He was the best Biden could get though because of our right wing Senate. Meanwhile the GOP our House of Representatives is trying to c

      • Biden is doing what he can, but he's not a godling. And, well, you're not helping. From your snarky post I can tell that if you voted at all you voted Republican. Or at least for the right wing party in your country.

        Wrong! Biden voter here.

        Idiot.

    • Your analogy is far from perfect. If you as a husband do your part to only ever have sex with your wife and be a good husband then it is fair to take credit for divorce being avoided and having a good plan. If you wife runs off with the fireman, then isn't it fair if you blame her... Specifically I actually think Biden did try to address inflation by proposing an infrastructure/spending plan. That failed due to Manchin and Senema if I recall the names correctly. By the time inflation was being taken serious

  • No President, anywhere, at any time is going to say that, that's just basic politics. The real answer is "it depends on definition? it's a mixed bag?" but that's not a good soundbite.

    If the White House said it was a recession does that in fact make it so? If that's the case then them saying there isn't one makes it not the case as well. Who actually cares what the White House says in this case when the stats are there for everyone to read and decide on and the policies implemented.

    • We expect our oligarchs to lie to us, because if they told the truth it wouldn't be very politically beneficial for them and by extension our party

    • What would happen if a POTUS actually leveled with the people? That would be taking the moral high ground as opposed to lying to the voters.

      • He would be removed from office. Voters seem to prefer liars.

        • Nah. Voters have the memory span of a goldfish. 1) Current POTUS levels with the people. 2) Candidate berates POTUS saying they would do a better job. 3) Candidate gets elected and f*cks it up more or differently probably both. 4) Voters baffled. 5) Goto step 2.

          • Their short-term memory may be the reason WHY they respond positively to liars, but in general they still prefer liars.

        • Bingo. The honest guy rarely is rewarded for being so. Just like when politicans adjust their position from years past and they are deemed a "flip flopper" rather than acknowldging that people change opinions with time and expereience.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by jonadab ( 583620 )
      Eh, I don't think it's good politics to go against what the Fed is saying on a matter of economic outlook in a situation like this. It doesn't gain you that much, because the people who are in a position to make a self-fulfilling economic prediction work (investors and such), for the most part, place way more stock in what the Fed says, than what the White House says. Best case scenario, the Fed was wrong in the first place, and the recession doesn't happen, in which case you could've just said nothing an

      • Yeah I am not saying this is good but if the WHite House comes out and says "yeah, probably gonna be a recession" they will get just excoriated on Fox News, every conservative pundit will bag on them for weeks, that sound bite will get used at election time, even the "liberal" news outlets will also jump on it and hell just the acknowledgement sets a precedent.

        To be clear I am not saying overall this strategy is good, in fact I think it's quite not good but it's a result of the system we have created, it's

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by jonadab ( 583620 )

          > if the White House comes out and says "yeah, probably gonna
          > be a recession" they will get just excoriated on Fox News

          That'll happen anyway.

          > Voters say they want the straight shooter but what they
          > really mean is "just say what I already agree with and
          > also what I want to hear"

          During a campaign, yes. Unfortunately. This is something I dislike about American politics, but yes, that is how it works.

          But as of right now, the election campaign is almost certainly going to be happening *after

  • War is extremely wasteful of artillery shells, drones, jets, trucks, tanks, fuel, food and people. To keep the Russian fascists out of Eastern Europe the (semi) democratic US will continue to support Ukraine and will ramp up production. Paying for it by mildly increasing taxes on our domestic fascist oligarch class. No recession.

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by ranton ( 36917 )

      Spending $50-$75 billion yearly in foreign aid to Ukraine is unlikely to tip the balance in a $23 trillion dollar economy.

    • War is extremely wasteful of artillery shells, drones, jets, trucks, tanks, fuel, food and people. To keep the Russian fascists out of Eastern Europe the (semi) democratic US will continue to support Ukraine and will ramp up production. Paying for it by mildly increasing taxes on our domestic fascist oligarch class. No recession.

      I honestly can't tell if this was a parody post mocking people that sound like this, or if you actually mean it.

    • I recall some high up military officer explaining that winning a war is expensive, but not nearly as expensive as losing a war.

      The USA didn't declare war but if the USA doesn't support Ukraine now in holding back Russia then we will see only more money lost in fighting Russia later.

      What is lost on people is that the weapons sent to Ukraine is a sunk cost. They are getting 30 year old battle tanks and artillery shells. This is yesteryear's technology that is not likely to last long in some future war. As

      • Bigger issue Iâ(TM)d argue is how much the US MIC price gouges the government on procurement programs thanks in no small part to the GWOT. A significant chunk of the price of say, a missile stems from bidding wars, bonuses, backroom deals, and the occasional bribe. While US armaments are quite good for the most part, itâ(TM)s not a stretch to say that weâ(TM)re still well overpaying for them. Now that weâ(TM)re both effectively at war with Russia and gearing up against China though, we

  • Economy Runs On Optimisim (Score:3)

    by El Fantasmo ( 1057616 ) on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:50AM (#63446630)

    No one in charge of the levers of power is going to warn a recession is coming and there is little they can do about it. That alone may cause a recession, in part, because greedy bastards will try to cash out and minimize losses ahead of a recession that may or may not happen to an unknown extent. So, the Fed, the President, the IMF etc. all say they have it under control and if all their plans work there will be no recession. We all follow along trying to hopefully avoid a recessiohttps://yro.slashdot.org/story/23/04/13/1132210/white-house-rejects-fed-staff-outlook-says-no-sign-of-recession#n until it is painfully obvious it is upon us.

    • Indeed, the economy runs on optimism so a good leader should display optimism. AND, a politician seeking reelection will communicate that they are doing a great job (regardless of actual performance). It's a fortunate coincidence that these two things are aligned.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by MobyDisk ( 75490 )

        so a good leader should display optimism

        Yes, and they should use cautious optimism when appropriate, not solely blind faith "things will work out" kind of optimism.

        Take for example Trump's statement in February 2021, about how Covid would just go away. I suspect he was trying to employ the tactic that you just asserted, to prevent people from going into a panic. But in hindsight we see that it also prevented people from taking protective measures. Instead, of saying "It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle

  • Then it won't happen, until all hell breaks loose

  • dissent is valuable (Score:5, Insightful)

    by John_Sauter ( 595980 ) <John_Sauter@systemeyescomputerstore.com> on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:59AM (#63446670) Homepage

    I am glad I live in a society in which dissent can be heard, even if it is from within the Government. In a repressive society, everything coming from the Government would be "on message" and contrary opinions coming from outside the Government would be suppressed.

    I don't know which I trust more: the elected President of the United States or some nameless staffers at the Federal Reserve. I'm just glad I can hear them both.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by jonadab ( 583620 )
      > I don't know which I trust more: the elected President of the
      > United States or some nameless staffers at the Federal Reserve.

      Historically speaking, I know which of them is better at predicting recessions. Regardless of which political party is in the White House. Even if you throw the entire Greenspan era out of the data set as unfair, there's still no contest here.
    • Biden's administration is trying to stop them. Both sides think they'll win, so both sides are saying "we'll win".
    • Your choice is between "nameless staffers" at the Fed or at the Whitehouse. Biden is just a mouthpiece who reads whatever is on the teleprompter.

  • And? (Score:2)

    by GlennC ( 96879 )

    What are we meant to do with this information?

    We are but the pebbles arguing about what started the avalanche.

  • Don't worry, the recession will be transitory just like inflation
  • ...here, hold my Grey Poupon...

  • Techies already get normie news and don't need it here.

  • Every economist who wants to place a bet weighs in with their opinion (often claimed to be relevant primarily because they guessed right about the economic situation at some point in the past, like back 15 years ago or so in 2008).

    In fact, many made dire predictions for our economy last year that they're now getting quiet about or even modifying to claim "it will happen later than I thought, last year".

    https://fortune.com/2022/08/30... [fortune.com]

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/m... [cbsnews.com]

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u... [cbsnews.com]

    Goldman

  • .Sure, inflation has fallen from it's highest levels since the early 1980's, but that doesn't mean that Inflation isn't still a serious problem. The Fed isn't helping IMO. They raised rates too fast causing rapid inflation. Now they may continue to raise rates. If you ask me (no one does,) the Fed should sit on their hands for a few months to see what effect their actions over the last couple years actually have.

    • The Fed isn't helping IMO. They raised rates too fast causing rapid inflation.

      Hmm... Remember the concept of limits when you took a calculus class back in 1953? Let's test your theory. According to your "logic," if the Fed had raised the federal funds rate overnight from 0.75% to 97% (resulting in prime rate 100%), apparently you think that the next day, you would need a wheelbarrow load of $500 bills to buy your next crack pipe.

  • Looking around it's pretty obvious we are in a recession. Looking ahead it's more obviously going to get worse.

    Heads up that currently there are a very large number of people buying gold and silver, the prices are still quite good although it's getting harder to find some stock, and a number of online dealers have imposed order minimums now...

    May be a good time to think about putting 5-10% of your accumulated wealth into gold and/or silver as insurance.

    Good luck to you all.

  • I remember an interview of Micheal Malice where he talked about North Korea propaganda. One example was North Korea denying they had concentration camps because they defined concentration camps differently. We have the Biden Administration denying that there is an economic recession because they define a recession differently.

    We are seeing energy prices rise because the federal government is putting restrictions on fossil fuels, nuclear power plants, hydroelectric dams, and so much else in how we produce

  • I used to be fairly forgiving of the BLS and the Fed when they put out their respective numbers, but that went completely away four years ago when we were told inflation was only 1.x% when prices for some products had doubled in less than a year. Toothpaste is the example I used, where it went from ~$1 a 6 oz tube to over $3 for a 4 oz tube.

    There is no way you can tell me inlfation was only 1.x% when that happens. Not to mention the huge rise in food prices or the increasing cost for your ISP connection.

    A

  • Shouldn't the WH staff be concerned with more immediate problems? I'm pretty sure Joe's trouser chili is leaking out of his pants leg. I don't think he's aware. Someone will need to mop that up.
  • Not just a river in Egypt.

  • McDonalds is closing offices and stores.

    If McDonalds is pulling back, we're in big trouble.

  • Keep in mind that this is the same White House who claims their withdrawal from Afghanistan went swimmingly.

    One aspect of the US's polarized, extremist political landscape that I've noticed is the wholesale adoption of the false dichotomy: the only options are the "us'es" or the "thems". And, a key characteristic of that mentality is the conviction that the "us'es" are always right and the "thems" are always wrong. There is never any questioning of the "us's" policy or execution by the "us'es".

    Until p

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