Santa Cruz Tests Predictive Policing Program 228
The police department of Santa Cruz, California is testing a new method for apprehending criminals: beating them to the crime scene. No, they haven't harnessed a group of pre-cogs; they're relying on a computer program that analyzes past crime statistics.
"Based on models for predicting aftershocks from earthquakes, it generates projections about which areas and windows of time are at highest risk for future crimes by analyzing and detecting patterns in years of past crime data. The projections are recalibrated daily, as new crimes occur and updated data is fed into the program. ... For the Santa Cruz trial, eight years of crime data were fed into the computer program, which breaks Santa Cruz into squares of approximately 500 feet by 500 feet. ... Officers are given a list of the 10 highest-probability 'hot spots' of the day at roll call. They check those areas during times that they are not out on service calls. Before the program started, they made such 'pass through' checks based on hunches or experience of where crimes were likely to occur."
Next step: (Score:1, Interesting)
Kind of Interesting (Score:3, Interesting)
It is kind of interesting on one level because it doesn't violate anyone's civil rights nor do anything odious. That much said, I am no fan of proactive policing. Proactive policing usually means law abiding citizens get harassed for walking through a "known" crime area even though they have no criminal intent. And please spare me the tired old line that only criminals go through bad areas and if you are in a bad area you must be up to something. Having been in law enforcement myself, cops are really rarely out to help which is why they call it "law enforcement" versus "peace officer." If you want proactive policing, hire private security.
My prediction (Score:5, Interesting)
Anything which replaces officer "hunches" with something more probabilistically sound* is fine by me.
*given the very low predictive value of their hunches and the high potential for 'hunches' to obfuscate prejudice or patterns of harassment in their investigations("my gut told me hassling this poor neighbourhood for the eighth time this month might turn up some crimes"), a dice roll would be sound enough for my purposes. Can you come up with an even more accurate model than pure randomness? bonus!
Re:One 'problem' (Score:3, Interesting)
We have a nation unwilling to raise taxes above historic lows, with one party trying to push taxes even lower. We're being forced to lay off cops by the thousands. Hiring enough to properly cover cities isn't an option. Technology that helps that be a bit more efficient is welcome.
Re:Kind of Interesting (Score:4, Interesting)
I'd also welcome a speed trap right outside my front door. Speeding on the highway is ok within reason. 10 - 15 over is probably fine. but a residential neighborhood is another matter entirely. We've got kids playing and people backing out of driveways.
Ya it sounds like a solid idea (Score:4, Interesting)
Police departments already tried to do this, as noted with the hunch thing. The cops would go around and show presence in areas to try and deter crime (they also do things like park their cars in mall parking lots when they do paperwork). Well and good but of course it is all based on what humans feel is correct. while there's some validity to that since we do notice patterns, better to have a computer work it out, if possible.
Supposing the algorithm is tuned well, it could really do good. The patrols will go in areas where they are most needed. Also presumably a good model that is given new data daily (as this one is) will notice when things change and thus change patrols. Humans may be much slower to react.
Have to see what the actual stats are on it, but I think it could be a real win long term for law enforcement.