Police Data-Mining Done Right 321
enharmonix writes "Courtesy of Bruce Schneier, it's nice to hear something good about data mining for a change: predicting and stopping crime. For example, police in Redmond, VA, 'started overlaying crime reports with other data, such as weather, traffic, sports events and paydays for large employers. The data was analyzed three times a day and something interesting emerged: Robberies spiked on paydays near cheque cashing storefronts in specific neighbourhoods. Other clusters also became apparent, and pretty soon police were deploying resources in advance and predicting where crime was most likely to occur.'"
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Interesting (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
Still, I have to congratulate you. This just wouldn't be Slashdot if we didn't get somebody denigrating the accomplishment. It's very gratifying to know that I post to the same board as so many people who can do everything with merely a stray thought, if they ever actually felt like getting around to it.
How long until it catches on? (Score:2, Insightful)
Some people don't go to places at peak time to avoid queues, if criminals realise the police know the peak times, they can anticipate the strength of guard and where police are?
Knowledge like this can be used to both party's advantages. Some facts are obviously public knowledge such as weather.
I don't think it even takes well-organized crime to understand this.
How about the police force has a counter-itself division? It uses the public knowledge and works independent of the police to outsmart it -- the police can use this knowledge to anticipate counter knowledge usages...
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:2, Insightful)
I'm sure it also points out there's less crime around donut shops, too.
Seriously, though, that example the article cited seems like the one most people are likely to understand. Perhaps the article writer is less inclined to mention the more sensitive things like drug trafficking locations. That would hamper an investigation, wouldn't it?
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:4, Insightful)
What happened to hunches and intuition?
The point of data mining to to find the NON-OBVIOUS relationships.
There's even a data warehousing product named just that.
The Biggest Crime In The World: (Score:0, Insightful)
is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C. [whitehouse.org].
How much more information do you need to detain, try, convict, and sentence for crimes against everyone?
From The United Gulags Of America With Love,
Kilgore Trout, M.D.
scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:4, Insightful)
cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life
almost all the comments here have some sort of negative thought or smarmy remark on an aspect of this story. and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed. and what are the cops doing? no, what are they actually doing? i'm not asking your paranoid distrustful hollywood-addled alter ego, i'm asking your cognitive ability to look at and perceive the reality of actual police work
typical human shortsightedness and lack of gratitude
it must be so thankless being a cop. you're there to protect people, and all they can do is reflexively depart negativity at you
humanity sucks. you are all so ungrateful
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Insightful)
Says who? AFAICT, crime is best prevented by some minimum amount of personal freedom, reasonable living conditions regarding food, shelter, and education for all, along with some participation in matters of society.
Not really. (Score:5, Insightful)
Not really. Jail time and such has almost no effect on changing criminal behaviour.
Possibly. Or maybe they are trying to prevent crimes.
The criminals are not worried about going to jail AFTER the crime is committed. But if there is a cop there at the moment they would have committed the crime, most criminals will not commit it.
Means
Motive
Opportunity
With a cop right there, the "opportunity" is removed. So no crime occurs. In general, the crime rate should go down because this isn't something that can easily be displaced. It seems to be tied to the area around a check cashing storefront. Increase the patrols in those areas and the crimes are not committed.
Re:Interesting (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:How long until it catches on? (Score:3, Insightful)
You haven't met a lot of criminals, have you?
As a group, they're not the sharpest pencils in the box.
That's not to say that they don't think they're "smarter than the cops".
Many are convinced that they can outsmart the cops, and thus have no fear of getting caught.
And with the concern for getting caught conveniently out of their mind, there is also no concern over the punishment, "cause I ain't gonna get caught, so there is no punishment."
Re:Interesting (Score:1, Insightful)
A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)
imho
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
You know, when you get down to it, there's a lot of stuff that jumps out after the fact that says, "why the fuck didn't we notice that before?" But when you're doing the day to day work (in any field) you may ignore or not even know about what seems unbelievably obvious.
Just because this particular piece of information was the most prevalent in the story does not mean it's the only thing to come out of the reporting and it's certainly not the last thing that will be. Give it time. Data-mining's best fruits come from long term studies of data using a variety of methods.
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
Whose payday? We can't post cops at all of the check cashing storefronts (not banks) all the time, so which stores see the most crime after which companies' paydays?
If you can answer these questions with nothing but hunches and intuition, I'd suggest the stock market, not law enforcement.
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)
Add that to MANY instances of being harassed by cops for my car, my youth, being out late, etc... and it's hard not to have a negative view. I'm sure there are some good cops out there. I don't doubt it. But when I'm robbed they can't send a cop out that day, presumably because they're all too busy pulling over young guys in expensive cars and searching them without probably cause (I'm in tech, I'm not a drug dealer), or issuing speeding tickets for 25 in a 20 to meet their quotas.
Anecdotes don't make a rule, it's true, but they do color a persons opinions. I've interacted with law enforcement many times (speeding tickets, random pull overs, having my apt. robbed, car accident, firearms testing for concealed carry, etc...), probably about 25 interactions. Of those, one was reasonably positive (helped after my car died on the side of the road), a few were neutral (neither helpful not malicious or abusive), and the rest (about 20) were negative (screaming and threats, searches without cause, rough handling, rudeness, apathy, etc...).
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:4, Insightful)
Strategic and tactical placement of resources to maximize effect without resorting to profiling or harassing citizens is a good thing.
Re:A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)
Oh come on (Score:3, Insightful)
The only cases that I actually talked to a policeman were on the highway, and I had to pay hundreds of dollars and time to show up in traffic court.
Oh, and occasional phone calls to ask for a donation. "No thanks, I've paid my fine share of speeding tickets this year."
So don't lecture us what to think about police. We are taxpayers that pay them to do the work for us. We appreciate what they do but that's still their duty, and we'll not look up to them more than they deserve.
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Insightful)
The best way to prevent crime is not by instilling fear, but by having a society of people who are aware of how their actions affect others and genuinely want the world to be a nice place to live in, because then you don't need all the restrictions of liberty and ubiquitous surveillance to keep people in line. It's not a quick fix like fear, and it requires effort and co-operation and education across society. Maybe instilling fear is the first step in a transition to a society where people are considerate, but I doubt it.
Happens to us too (Score:4, Insightful)
Sometimes it just helps to have somebody checking up on your work, even if that "somebody" is an automated process or machine.
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:3, Insightful)
I have seen things that makes it appear that the cops are getting a portion of their budget from tickets. Statements from the police along the lines of we need to cite X people to pay for the over time. It might not be the old get get 20 tickets this month. But it is still there in some form or another. Or at lest it appears this way.
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)
My point being: the police have different criteria for what's important than you do, and they're professionals with lots of experience. Your history with them sounds like it sucks, and it's likely they were wrong a lot of the time. But you don't know why they're doing what they're doing, and my observation is that their decisions don't seem to be completely arbitrary.
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:1, Insightful)
Add that to MANY instances of being harassed by cops for my car, my youth, being out late, etc... and it's hard not to have a negative view. I'm sure there are some good cops out there. I don't doubt it. But when I'm robbed they can't send a cop out that day, presumably because they're all too busy pulling over young guys in expensive cars and searching them without probably cause (I'm in tech, I'm not a drug dealer), or issuing speeding tickets for 25 in a 20 to meet their quotas.
Anecdotes don't make a rule, it's true, but they do color a persons opinions. I've interacted with law enforcement many times (speeding tickets, random pull overs, having my apt. robbed, car accident, firearms testing for concealed carry, etc...), probably about 25 interactions. Of those, one was reasonably positive (helped after my car died on the side of the road), a few were neutral (neither helpful not malicious or abusive), and the rest (about 20) were negative (screaming and threats, searches without cause, rough handling, rudeness, apathy, etc...).
Good God, hello -- you must be my long-lost twin brother, separated at birth. I have exactly the same history. When my house was robbed of nearly all jewelry and silverware (back when the fucking Texas Hunt brothers were trying to corner the silver market), all the bastard cop had to say was, "Well, it's probably just a puddle of molten metal down near LA by now." No meaningful investigation of any kind. Just barely filled out enough of a police report to get the insurance company's cooperation.
In another case, when a house next door was broken into, a cop came by to ask if I'd heard anything. I had, and went outside to investigate, but saw nothing -- I thought someone had just let a bottle break in the street. So he tells me they've had a lot of robberies around there, all in the same model house, all entered by breaking the same out-of-the-way window.
So what were they doing to notify people in that kind of house? -- Exactly nothing. Jesus, that would have been proactive and we can't have any of that shit going on. It would be like ... like ... like doing our jobs.
You're dead right about anecdotes, especially when they're your own anecdotes. I'm sick to goddamned death of people blowing off what I've experienced as "just anecdotes -- you shouldn't judge the rest by them". Well, whose anecdotes SHOULD I consider, if not my own? When 20 out of 25 people of a certain group knee me in the nuts as they pass me on the street, you can be fucking sure I'll judge the rest by my own "anecdotal experience" of the other 20.
It's like the old saying, "Dishonest lawyers give all of the other five percent a bad name."
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:A better way to prevent crime (Score:3, Insightful)
For every person locked in to the underclass by circumstances beyond their control there are ten more who every day make the choices that keep them there. You can save the one with cash and a little education will help a couple of the ten. Throw resources at the rest and you'll only learn how to squander your money the way they do.
Re:Interesting (Score:2, Insightful)
Doing the first 2 years at a CC would make it even cheaper. The poor are also able to get more grants/loans.
Education is affordable.
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:5, Insightful)
What about cops walking a beat? That's right, walking down the same streets over and over everyday. Walking a beat means getting to know the locals and the particulars of a neighborhood in a way that doesn't happen in a squad car. Gangs don't hang out on a corner if once an hour a cops walks by a says hello, but the neighborhood kids still can hangout and could even end up viewing that cop as part of their neighborhood. From a squad car, no relationship is established and any stationary pack of teens can look like a gang to a biased eye. You don't have to profile when you actually know the people you see, but if you are just cruising along looking at a sea of nameless faces, then ethnicity and clothing style are about all you have to go on. Profiling is almost inevitable without establishing officers with good personal knowledge/relationship with the locals.
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:2, Insightful)
-AC
Re:(slaps forehead) (Score:2, Insightful)
"The vast majority of airline stewardesses have treat me rudely. Therefore, most airline stewardesses are rude."
You're the only one with a gross bias.
How about, senator for Alaska? (Score:3, Insightful)
That sound like a good job? Is the governor mansion in Alaska a nice place to live? Should someone with that kind of job and all the perks be content with life?
Then please tell me why the current senator of Alaska felt it neccesary to commit a crime WHILE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ALL AROUND THE WORLD MAKING A FRACTION OF HIS SALARY, HAVE NOTHING AND NOTHING TO LOOK FORWARD TOO DO NOT COMMIT CRIMES?
Your comment is not just stupid, it is plain insulting.
As if somehow being poor makes you a criminal, yuch. So everybody who comes from a poor background, from a bad neighbourhood and wants more is going to resort to crime while the rich in good areas are offcourse innocent as a newborn kittens.
What you might have meant (unless you truly are a bigot) is that some low value economic crimes might not happen if people weren't forced at times between the choice of paying for basic needs or obeying the law.
These types of crimes are however rare. Even a poor person who robs someone else for a pair of Nikes does NOT qualify, you do NOT need brandname shoes to life. Not even to be "content".
Most crime originates from a sense of entitlement which becomes criminel when society judges that you ain't entitled to it. You are NOT entitled to my paycheck (well unless you happen to be Mrs. SmallFurryCreature), you are NOT entitled to have sex with me if I say no (anyone?), you are NOT entitled to have another million dollars in your bank account by pandering to the needs of big business, etc etc.
At most society can give its citizens a basic income (job? What about those to young, to old or sick to work?) enough to meet their most basic needs. Society can NOT make all its people content.
Either you are a hatefull bigot who really thinks that all poor people are criminals and rich people are innocent, OR you expressed yourselve extremely poorly (even by slashdot standards) or you are just a plain fucking idiot.
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:3, Insightful)
Well, what if there isn't enough people breaking the law for them to write more tickets? They can just pull you over and write one anyways. You goto court and say I wasn't speeding, I used my turn signal, My exhaust wasn't/isn't loud, and the cop says said Well I saw them do it, I got them with the radar (while the speed locked in was from 9 hours ago when someone was actually speeding and show to 10 other people as their supposed speed) or they claims they followed them and paced the speed out or whatever. Who is the judge going to believe? You are the trusted law enforcement officer? You don't get a jury trial for traffic offenses, you don't get appeals rights, you get what the judge gives you and that is that. That is the pretty much the ordeal with minor misdemeanors all over the place and shouldn't be with just one state.
At least with raising taxes, the community has some say in what the police can do or raise funds for. There isn't an incentive to write fake tickets to every out of town license plate driving though the area and there isn't the bulk of funding being pushed into innocent people with little to no chance of defense. And if the extra funds were necessary and wanted by the city, it would be far less per innocent person then raping them for unwarranted fines.