Police Data-Mining Done Right 321
enharmonix writes "Courtesy of Bruce Schneier, it's nice to hear something good about data mining for a change: predicting and stopping crime. For example, police in Redmond, VA, 'started overlaying crime reports with other data, such as weather, traffic, sports events and paydays for large employers. The data was analyzed three times a day and something interesting emerged: Robberies spiked on paydays near cheque cashing storefronts in specific neighbourhoods. Other clusters also became apparent, and pretty soon police were deploying resources in advance and predicting where crime was most likely to occur.'"
The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Club (Score:3, Interesting)
A hole in space. [amazon.com] Larry Niven.
Are the police going to share the location information?
I might want to watch. Cops live!
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:4, Insightful)
Strategic and tactical placement of resources to maximize effect without resorting to profiling or harassing citizens is a good thing.
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:5, Insightful)
What about cops walking a beat? That's right, walking down the same streets over and over everyday. Walking a beat means getting to know the locals and the particulars of a neighborhood in a way that doesn't happen in a squad car. Gangs don't hang out on a corner if once an hour a cops walks by a says hello, but the neighborhood kids still can hangout and could even end up viewing that cop as part of their neighborhood. From a squad car, no relationship is established and any stationary pack of teens can look like a gang to a biased eye. You don't have to profile when you actually know the people you see, but if you are just cruising along looking at a sea of nameless faces, then ethnicity and clothing style are about all you have to go on. Profiling is almost inevitable without establishing officers with good personal knowledge/relationship with the locals.
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Actually, in many places they do. Beat cops and homicide cops often have somewhat amicable relationships with drug gangs so that they have informants when violent crimes happen. Narcotics cops are another issue, but they don't walk beats and it's rarely useful to arrest low-level players who are selling at street corners.
Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:4, Interesting)
That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Funny)
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Although I wonder how many police departments really have monthly quotas. It seems that by the time you account for vacation, different duty assignments, etc, it wouldn't be worth the bother.
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Well, what if there isn't enough people breaking the law for them to write more tickets? They can just pull you over and write one anyways. You goto court and say I wasn't speeding, I
I think you'll find (Score:3, Informative)
That's how it works here. You'll essentially never get a ticket for doing less than 10 over (except special cases like school zones and such) and there's no quotas at all. They just put the jerks, the people who
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Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
Still, I have to congratulate you. This just wouldn't be Slashdot if we didn't get somebody denigrating the accomplishment. It's very gratifying to know that I post to the same board as so many people who can do everything with merely a stray thought, if they ever actually felt like getting around to it.
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:4, Insightful)
What happened to hunches and intuition?
The point of data mining to to find the NON-OBVIOUS relationships.
There's even a data warehousing product named just that.
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
Whose payday? We can't post cops at all of the check cashing storefronts (not banks) all the time, so which stores see the most crime after which companies' paydays?
If you can answer these questions with nothing but hunches and intuition, I'd suggest the stock market, not law enforcement.
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(p.s. It wouldn't be slashdot with out the "mod parent up" guy. Please follow with "moderation is busted" guy/gal...)
Okay (Score:3, Funny)
The cops busted him outside a check cashing joint on payday.
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I think it is more than your willing to give credit for. Most crimes are crimes of opportunity and negligence. Few would be criminals act though with the crime if it is likely that they will be caught. It goes along the lines of locks only keep honest people out. Increasing patrols in the area is cheaper then going though the court system, housing a criminal and dealing out a punishment.
I think that if yo
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I'm sure it also points out there's less crime around donut shops, too.
Seriously, though, that example the article cited seems like the one most people are likely to understand. Perhaps the article writer is less inclined to mention the more sensitive things like drug trafficking locations. That would hamper an investigation, wouldn't it?
Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)
You know, when you get down to it, there's a lot of stuff that jumps out after the fact that says, "why the fuck didn't we notice that before?" But when you're doing the day to day work (in any field) you may ignore or not even know about what seems unbelievably obvious.
Just because this particular piece of information was the most prevalent in the story does not mean it's the only thing to come out of the reporting and it's certainly not the last thing that will be. Give it time. Data-mining's best fruits come from long term studies of data using a variety of methods.
Happens to us too (Score:4, Insightful)
Sometimes it just helps to have somebody checking up on your work, even if that "somebody" is an automated process or machine.
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Well, it seems that the crooks have been able to figure it out without a computer. Or is it random chance that they all seem to show up when people get paid?
Should we be proud that we've created a computer database that can predict how someone who probably has at most a high school education has figured out? And besides, are you telling me that the database knows how many people get paid on which days so was able to tell you when to be there? Of course not, the computer knows jack about when people get pai
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Sweet! (Score:5, Funny)
Which check-cashing place do you go to?
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Can I choose the 1st, 6th, 15th, 21st, and every other Friday?
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Actually, I believe they do (Score:3, Interesting)
Interesting (Score:5, Interesting)
On a side note - I'm willing to bet that if someone had asked most street cops in that area - they wouldn't have needed software or data mining tools to tell you that cash checking places in bad parts of town, on pay days were areas of higher crime.
Re:Interesting (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Insightful)
Says who? AFAICT, crime is best prevented by some minimum amount of personal freedom, reasonable living conditions regarding food, shelter, and education for all, along with some participation in matters of society.
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Since neither that nor what you are proposing is very likely to happen, what the GP said is true. Having cops be at places where crime is likely is a good deterrent to crime.
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No, it's useless as I said, since the crime will move elsewhere, just like teenagers that hang out in a mall.
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The idea of just working and living an average life seems like a kind of death to some people.
They'd rather burn fast- get easy money- and die young than live a normal life.
Some people are just more aggressive and/or greedy than others.
Some people do nothing bad. I do some bad things . A lot of people do a lot of bad things that I don't.
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Rather than put more money into higher education and requiring people to go through it - whether they need it or not - wouldn't it be better to fund trade schools like we did in the past?
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Assuming that's true, if someone does not have a degree, whose fault is that?
Not really. (Score:5, Insightful)
Not really. Jail time and such has almost no effect on changing criminal behaviour.
Possibly. Or maybe they are trying to prevent crimes.
The criminals are not worried about going to jail AFTER the crime is committed. But if there is a cop there at the moment they would have committed the crime, most criminals will not commit it.
Means
Motive
Opportunity
With a cop right there, the "opportunity" is removed. So no crime occurs. In general, the crime rate should go down because this isn't something that can easily be displaced. It seems to be tied to the area around a check cashing storefront. Increase the patrols in those areas and the crimes are not committed.
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While the original statement (that crime is best prevented by a fear of getting caught and punished) is a bit suspect, this response doesn't really counter it. Jail time addresses recitivism rate, and as you pointed out, it doesn't do a very good job. But that doesn't address whether or not fear of punishment is an effective initial deterrent for much of the population--you're only saying that someone who ignores that initi
A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)
imho
Re:A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)
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Why again did he steal millions of dollars? According to your theory he shouldn't have, but he did. People will ALWA
Advocating pot smoking again are you? (Score:2)
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For every person locked in to the underclass by circumstances beyond their control there are ten more who every day make the choices that keep them there. You can save the one with cash and a little education will help a couple of the ten. Throw resources at the rest and you'll only learn how to squander your money the way they do.
How about, senator for Alaska? (Score:3, Insightful)
That sound like a good job? Is the governor mansion in Alaska a nice place to live? Should someone with that kind of job and all the perks be content with life?
Then please tell me why the current senator of Alaska felt it neccesary to commit a crime WHILE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ALL AROUND THE WORLD MAKING A FRACTION OF HIS SALARY, HAVE NOTHING AND NOTHING TO LOOK FORWARD TOO DO NOT COMMIT CRIMES?
Your comment is not just stupid, it is plain insulting.
As if somehow being poor makes you a criminal, yuch. So eve
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No, and that's what's wrong with almost all the crime-prevention programs you hear about. Drugs education is about instilling fear, drink-driving adverts are about instilling fear, anti-smoking campaigns are about instilling fear.
The best way to prevent crime is not by instilling fear, but by having a society of people who are aware of how their actions affect others and genuinely want the world to be a nice place to live in, because then
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Wrong - on both counts.
Even if you are not physically hurt it is a tremendously horrible experience on many levels.
Yes - I know. That doesn't change the facts. There is a point of balance. I personally would prefer that balance to lean towards personal freedom and responsibility. I do not wish to have the police running around looking to apprehend people who haven't done anything wrong yet.
Also, preventing crime from happening means less mon
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yeah - and were both on the same page because 1) we learned the hard way and 2) we are not a part of the aforementioned crowd.
And on top of that I didn't even bring in the fact that most large city cops are already plenty busy. For our check cashing example - those places hire off duty cops for their busy times, and this makes complete sense. There is no reason for the tax payer to completely foot the bill for protecting their high risk
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Yep, but they have good reason to be: if they get involved, 1) they may get hurt themselves (yes, that's cowardly), or 2) they may hurt the assailant, and end up in a messy court case, or get sued. Remember, in our society, if a criminal hurts himself in the commis
TV (Score:2)
Wrong city listed in summary (Score:5, Informative)
Chip H.
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How long until it catches on? (Score:2, Insightful)
Some people don't go to places at peak time to avoid queues, if criminals realise the police know the peak times, they can anticipate the strength of guard and where police are?
Knowledge like this can be used to both party's advantages. Some facts are obviously public knowledge such as weather.
I don't think it even takes well-organized crime to understand this.
How about the police force has a counter-itself division? It uses the public knowledge and works indep
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You haven't met a lot of criminals, have you?
As a group, they're not the sharpest pencils in the box.
That's not to say that they don't think they're "smarter than the cops".
Many are convinced that they can outsmart the cops, and thus have no fear of getting caught.
And with the concern for getting caught conveniently out of their mind, there is also no concern over the punishment, "cause I ain't gonna get caught, so there is no punishment."
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Yes, but (Score:2)
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Right, your friendly neighborhood drug addict will relocate to Sweden.
scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:4, Insightful)
cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life
almost all the comments here have some sort of negative thought or smarmy remark on an aspect of this story. and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed. and what are the cops doing? no, what are they actually doing? i'm not asking your paranoid distrustful hollywood-addled alter ego, i'm asking your cognitive ability to look at and perceive the reality of actual police work
typical human shortsightedness and lack of gratitude
it must be so thankless being a cop. you're there to protect people, and all they can do is reflexively depart negativity at you
humanity sucks. you are all so ungrateful
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:4, Informative)
"most qualified" (Score:3, Interesting)
now ask yourself why your stellar qualifications aren't met in new recruits. gee, maybe it has something to do with the general attitude towards cops? highly qualified people seek out jobs that are hig
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How many motorcade parades do you see for construction workers that get hit by cars while building the roads you drive on?
"if society has a problem with their cops, society needs to look at it's own attitude towards the profession as the culprit, not the actual cops themselves"
That is an insane statement. Replace the word 'cops' with 'lawyers', would it still be valid?
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My Father was a police officer for ten years before he became a judge. I appreciate the police. I grew up with them in my house. I actually walk up to them in public and thank them for their service to the community.
It amazes me the way the police are treated. Most people see them as the enemy, when the truth of the matter they are just like you and me.
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. . . when the truth of the matter they are just like you and me.
Funny you should mention that.
Recently in my area, Broward (FL) deputy Chris Reyka was killed. There's a massive manhunt underweigh to find the perp and rain down cold justice. Just this morning I was watching the news and the quote was "this guy has no respect for the life of someone in the uniform, they certainly wouldn't have respect for anyone else."
Pre-emptive strike: I do NOT disagree. Murder in cold blood ought to be dealt with swifly and it's a completely justifiable response. The deputy wasn't eve
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)
Add that to MANY instances of being harassed by cops for my car, my youth, being out late, etc... and it's hard not to have a negative view. I'm sure there are some good cops out there. I don't doubt it. But when I'm robbed they can't send a cop out that day, presumably because they're all too busy pulling over young guys in expensive cars and searching them without probably cause (I'm in tech, I'm not a drug dealer), or issuing speeding tickets for 25 in a 20 to meet their quotas.
Anecdotes don't make a rule, it's true, but they do color a persons opinions. I've interacted with law enforcement many times (speeding tickets, random pull overs, having my apt. robbed, car accident, firearms testing for concealed carry, etc...), probably about 25 interactions. Of those, one was reasonably positive (helped after my car died on the side of the road), a few were neutral (neither helpful not malicious or abusive), and the rest (about 20) were negative (screaming and threats, searches without cause, rough handling, rudeness, apathy, etc...).
heh ;-) (Score:3, Interesting)
of course there are cops that take out their frustrations on innocent people. these cops are far and few between though, and they always quickly overstep their bounds in such a way as to be removed from the street
meanwhile you talk about rudeness, rough handling, screaming and threats being the norm. so there seems to be a disconnect somewhere, since cops just don't go apeshit for no reason. cops are human beings. they act the same way you and i do. and
Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)
My point being: the police have different criteria for what's important than you do, and they're professionals with lots of experience. Your history with them sounds like it sucks, and it's likely they were wrong a lot of the time. But you don't know why they're doing what they're doing, and my observation is that their decisions don't seem to be completely arbitrary.
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Oh come on (Score:3, Insightful)
The only cases that I actually talked to a policeman were on the highway, and I had to pay hundreds of dollars and time to show up in traffic court.
Oh, and occasional phone calls to ask for a donation. "No thanks, I've paid my fine share of speeding tickets this year."
So don't lecture us what to th
Not their job (Score:2)
Well if you called me to do that, I wouldn't either. Why? For the same reason the cops won't... it's not their job!
Unless the dispute between the landlord and tenant became abuse/violent, or there was an actual crime being committed, then it's not a job for the police. It may be a job for the courts system, but it's not something I'd expect the cops to shop up and deal with.
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Well, yeah --- what did you expect? You're a criminal. Exceeding the speed limit is against the rules you agreed to abide by when you got your license to operate heavy machinery in a crowded area. You can hardly blame the police for that.
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Yeah! And on top of that we stereotype and overgeneralize.
I HATE YOU ALL!
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I have had about 10 negative experiences with police and about 2 that seemed positive simply because nothing terrible happened. My experiences are hardly atypical.
I'll start being grateful when there is something to be grateful for. If police focused on solving crimes and helping people instead of giving out speeding tickets and harassing nonviolent drug users I'd be real grateful.
I had a family friend die because the police blew off her frantic calls about her abusive husband. I had a
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A few of my friends are cops. I will never forget something one of them said to me. The conversation had something to do with someone complaining about him arresting/ticketing people. His response was: "I don't write the fucking laws! You do! You are a citizen, it is your job to change the laws if you don't like them! It is my job to enforce them!"
I think he had a fairly good point
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- I got harassed as a teenager as revenge from the local chief of police after my dad fought him in court.
- When my girlfriend had her car smashed up (overnight while parked on the street) by a drunk cabbie, with numerous witnesses, the cops barely wanted to talk to her or give her a copy of the poli
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God.. (Score:3, Informative)
Maybe i
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If you push their buttons right- they are heroes.
If you push their buttons wrong- they can be the worst kind of villains.
Even my otherwise extremely nice nephew has told gloating stories about lording power over civilians and was so far gone he no longer realizes he sounds like a thug when he does so.
Likewise- good cops usually side with bad cops. So you have a problem there. If there is one bad cop in a department, then you have the good cops oppressing civilians t
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cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life
Cop work is criticized because when it is abused, it is one of the most damaging and dangerous aspects of our society, and it is abused every day by a large number of cops.
and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed.
Police intervene in time to prevent a crime in only a few percent of all crimes. Most of the time, they don't even investigate robberies. If you're robbed you call them and hope you have insurance.If someone attacks you, you fight them or shoot them, and call the police afterwards so that they don't come for you when the body is foun
Pre-Crime Unit (Score:2)
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Why should it be illegal to be about to commit a crime?
Possesion of a tire wrench in your car would be illegal if you are in certain neighborhoods because you "must have been about to commit a crime?"
This relys on police being trustworthy as to whether you were "about to" commit a crime, which means that police have even more power.
"Let me search your car or I will arrest you for being about to punch me..."
That;'s what CompStat in NYC does (Score:3, Interesting)
The NYPD's CompStat system [wikipedia.org] has been doing that for about ten years now. It's working reasonably well. At first it was really effective, because career criminals tend to fall into predictable patterns. Crime in NYC has dropped enough that there's more randomness, and prediction is less effective.
Predicting crime (Score:2)
I think this has been done before (Score:2)
People still cash checks? (Score:3, Funny)
Is the US banking industry really that backward? How come?
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(to the rescue)
Yeah...uh
Hot damn become the Drizzle, baby
So cold ya know we never fizzle, baby
So hot ya know we goin' sizzle, baby
He wanna catch you, catch you at the kizzle, baby
Hardcore. Old school stylin'
Ten digits, even got a platinum album.
got a cadilliac, city block long
even got Spider-Man swinging on a ding dong
So much money 100 kat diamond ring
My man drizzy drizz, drizz got everything
When you see him, give my man big respect
Because the Drizzy Drizz just might break ya
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And that's not a problem limited to the police department, is it?
Why not? (Score:2)
So what happens a year from now when hypothetically they can show statistics that they've reduced crime by 5 - 15% while not increasing the use of department resources (i.e. patrol manpower, overtime, detectives)? Wouldn't that be rather solid evidence that it's working? If this data mining really is just fluff to make the public feel safer, then the numbers of actual committed crimes should show whether or not it's working (and if it isn't, then abandon it and try something else).
As for revealing what