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The Shape of the Future 179

Last week, Sci-Fi writer Charlie Stross was invited to speak at a technology open day at engineering consultancy TNG Technology Consulting in Munich. He's posted a transcript of his discussion on his website, which features a fascinating analysis of where technology is going in the next 10-25 years. Instead of envisioning outlandish future developments, he looks at what the impact might be on society from very reasonable iterations of today's SOTA. "10Tb is an interesting number. That's a megabit for every second in a year -- there are roughly 10 million seconds per year. That's enough to store a live DivX video stream -- compressed a lot relative to a DVD, but the same overall resolution -- of everything I look at for a year, including time I spend sleeping, or in the bathroom. Realistically, with multiplexing, it puts three or four video channels and a sound channel and other telemetry -- a heart monitor, say, a running GPS/Galileo location signal, everything I type and every mouse event I send -- onto that chip, while I'm awake ... Add optical character recognition on the fly for any text you look at, speech-to-text for anything you say, and it's all indexed and searchable. 'What was the title of the book I looked at and wanted to remember last Thursday at 3pm?' Think of it as google for real life. "
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The Shape of the Future

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 14, 2007 @06:53AM (#19111637)
    The Final Cut [imdb.com], staring Robin Williams. Sort of unexpectedly badass.
  • Very roughly! (Score:5, Informative)

    by mutende ( 13564 ) <klaus@seistrup.dk> on Monday May 14, 2007 @07:02AM (#19111703) Homepage Journal

    there are roughly 10 million seconds per year
    Hm..., a mean tropical year has 365.24219878 days of each 86400 seconds, or 31,556,926 seconds. Ten billion seconds is slightly less than 317 years.
  • by amck ( 34780 ) on Monday May 14, 2007 @07:49AM (#19111997) Homepage
    This puts the burden of proof onto the defendant: they have to explain why they turned off the life recorder.

    Read up as to why we have "Innocent until proven Guilty": there are a lot of circumstances that are not illegal, but frowned on
    by society. (e.g. being Gay and in the US Military, etc.) : especially where you have politically-motivated prosecutors
    such as in the US (less so in Britain and Ireland where there is a higher degree of independence for the Director of Public Prosecutions)
    the law can become a tool of persection. You can be in deep trouble when doing something perfectly legal but frowned on
    my a majority (or vocal/powerful minority) of your community.

    Other issues of the panopticon society: imagine setting up a business (in your spare time,or whatever). Your employer / competitor
    could bring a frivolous lawsuit just to see what you were doing on day X.
  • Re:Very roughly! (Score:4, Informative)

    by charlie ( 1328 ) <charlie@NoSpAm.antipope.org> on Monday May 14, 2007 @07:58AM (#19112053) Homepage Journal
    s/roughly/of the same order of magnitude/g
  • Re:Very roughly! (Score:3, Informative)

    by julesh ( 229690 ) on Monday May 14, 2007 @09:58AM (#19113291)
    My calculations put the figure at 31.5 million seconds per annum, which is well within an order of magnitude. Actually, it's within half an order of magnitude.
  • by Ralph Spoilsport ( 673134 ) on Monday May 14, 2007 @01:59PM (#19117585) Journal
    ...which in reality are shrinking. Per capita energy use peaked in the early 1980s. Building self-driving cars and the infrastructure to support such, building lifelogs and the infrastructure to support it, etc. and so on, is going to require HUGE amounts of energy, for EVERYBODY, and frankly, it just isn't there.

    People can have their own opinions about this, but not their own facts. all of the ramping up of capacity, speed, and ability of the past 100 years is directly attributable to high density transportable energy, in the form of petroleum. The remaining energy in that petroleum reserve would bet be served developing the technologies to prevent the starvation and privation of the 9 some odd billion people we're expecting to share the planet with in 50 years. Self driving cars? Perhaps, but not interesting, especially when people (mostly the poor, hungry, and dispossessed) are tearing up suburban McMansions for timber to keep warm during the ever milder winters, and the cities are gradually abandoned from the rising oceans.

    And all of THAT will require enormous amounts of energy. The kind of cybernetic totalism that TFA exhibits is one that is(sadly) all too pervasive in forums such as slashdot, ars technica, etc. And this is a tragedy, as we need the best and brightest to solve the problems of the future before they get here, not jerry-rig some bandaid solution on a disaster when it happens.

    To have even the VAGUEST glimmer of hope for an industrial civilisation, we need to get electricity in massive amounts, and figure out how to NOT use it in massive amounts. Suburbia will be abandoned - self driving cars won't save it. We will need to remove the burbs so we can reclaim it as farm land....

    I'm not being alarmist - I'm not a "doomer" by any stretch, but I am extremely skeptical of any predictions that do not directly address energy and resource consumption as central to any technology.

    RS

The only possible interpretation of any research whatever in the `social sciences' is: some do, some don't. -- Ernest Rutherford

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