BSA Piracy Study Deeply Flawed 437
zbik writes "Corante reports that The Economist has blown the lid off the BSA's recent report on software piracy (covered by Slashdot), referring to their methods as 'BS'.
'They dubiously presume that each piece of software pirated equals a direct loss of revenue to software firms.' The BSA has complained that the article is offensive but does not dispute their analysis. Score one for common sense."
Claims (Score:5, Insightful)
Much as we might laugh (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:5, Insightful)
Now that I am gainfully employed, I am very vigilant about making sure that my employers always keep me equipped with the very latest versions of them all, even if I don't use them.
I'm not saying that what I did as a teen was right, but I know for a fact that a few pirated copies in 1996-1999 have resulted in thousands of dollars in purchases over the past 6 years or so.
My view (Score:4, Insightful)
2. Most companies who use commercial software do pay the licensing fees, so no loss of income. However, companies that decide to switch to cheaper, possibly opensource solutions are in fact loss of income for the software vendors. Nonetheless, switches like this are completely legal. So again, no loss of income due to illegal actions.
The BSA is full of it.
Those who use pirated software wouldn't have bought it anyways and even if forced (as in bigbrother) to not use a certain piece of software without paying, they would have found alternative applications and still not pay up.
Those who do pay are getting fed up with the EULAs, crappy software and prices then turn to cheaper alternatives.
Piracy is good for business (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:4, Insightful)
That is more or less why non-commercial copyright infringement was not a crime up until the 70's. More important in this particular study, however, is that they are just guessing how many pieces of software are on an average computer, multiplying by the number of known computers in operation, subtracting purchases known to the BSA, and claiming that is the amount of pirated software. Then they multiply by the average cost of software.
So where does the copy of FreeBSD I downloaded and installed on a computer without an OS fit in? It's easy, I didn't buy the OS or any of the software so this is counted as one whole computer worth of pirated software. Where does the Windows machine I have sitting here only to run Firefox, IE, and Cygwin fit in? It is probably considered by their study to be half a dozen pirated programs. All freeware, small shareware, or just computers that don't run as much software as the BSA thinks the do (should?) are counted as piracy and lost revenue.
This is nothing more than a blatant attempt to lie to the public and to many governments in order to provide justification for their unjustifiable actions. Sad and sickening.
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:5, Insightful)
What do you mean Flawed ? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:5, Insightful)
it's all about elasiticity. anyone who has taken a 100-level course in economics (as have apparently the editors of "the economist". big surprise there) should know. a quick rundown is here:
http://www.quickmba.com/econ/micro/elas/ped.shtml [quickmba.com]
most software is highly elastic to most people. playing with this or that nifty piece of software may be fun for an hour or afternoon but unless it's a killer app, they would, given the choice, opt to not use the program rather than pay.
it's like the classic example of the pay-for park. a hundred people go to the park on a sunday afternoon, so a government beurocrate determines that if the city charges a $10 admission, the profit will be $1000 every sunday. the toll gates go up but, to the surprise of the beurocrat, nobody shows up to buy a ticket.
Linux and Openoffice are a loss according to BSA (Score:4, Insightful)
They estimate the amount of software on each PC and then subtract sales revenues. What is left is pirated software? Talk about a loophole in their logic! Based on their logic, any piece of freeware that is installed on a computer is revenue that BSA considers lost.
Though if you consider who is partners with the BSA, it's not surprising they'd consider Linux and Openoffice to be "warez"!
Re:Does not dispute?!? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:OTHER HEADLINES TODAY (Score:3, Insightful)
None of them are as miserable and corrupt individually as all of them are together.
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:2, Insightful)
I agree that the numbers that some software companies quote as losses are bullshit, but the justifications that most people use to pirate software are equally bullshit. If you choose to pirate software, don't try to justify it by saying that you are not stopping them selling the software to other people, or you would never had bought it anyway, just acknowledge what you are doing, and choose to do it anyway, or not.
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:3, Insightful)
An enthusiastic amateur photographer, for instance, may benefit enormously from a capable package such as Photoshop even if he's not making any money from it. He can do batch processing, decent conversion between formats, build profiles for his monitor and printer so that his prints come out as expected in terms of color accuracy, work with more bits per channel so transformations lose less detail, use his favorites from the huge library of plugins made for Photoshop... for all the reasons that it's the premier package among professionals. It may be well worth it for him to purchase it instead of Paint Shop Pro or PS Elements, or to fuss with the Gimp.
Wha? (Score:5, Insightful)
1)"I wouldn't have paid for it anyway, so it's not a lost sale"
OK, so let's say I go in to get my car's wheels rebalanced (or some other service). When they're done.. I just drive off without paying. Have I done anything wrong? Well, what if "I wouldn't have paid for it anyway"? So it's not a lost sale!
Umm, what the hell? That made zero, and by zero I mean none, sense. The analogy is too terrible to even examine.
2) "The software is too expensive"
So perhaps you wouldn't buy product A which is overpriced for your needs. But by pirating A, you rob product B and C - competing products that are much cheaper with limited functionality compared to A that still meet your needs - of market share.
Now here I can only conlude it should be illegal to buy any software at all, for everytime you do so you are depriving any computer of companies of revenue. I suggest you write your senator right away and demand that all software sales be outlawed on these grounds.
The fact is, if you don't pay for the software (unless a license is given for free), then you have no right to use the software. Period.
Now that part I agree with. You have no right. What is in question is how much harm it does, which depends entirely on the circumstances of the pirating and cannot be assigned a simple number. If a baby is given a pirated copy of Photoshop for teething is that really a loss to Adobe of $600? Please justify a yes response. The BSA would say yes.
Standard? (Score:3, Insightful)
That's not to say we only need one study. If a study is independently backed up by others, then wouldn't we know the real effects of piracy?
Re:How odd... (Score:5, Insightful)
Nope, that's exactly how they work it out. Download and read their "study" yourself (the methodology section is toward the back). Their "piracy" estimates are based on nothing more than wild guesses as to how many copies "should" have sold, given the number of computers out there.
Then, just for fun, they turn around and claim to their shareholders that sales exceeded expectations. Well, which is it, Chucko? Either you sold less than you anticipated (inflating the "piracy" figures), or you sold more (inflating your stock price). Either way, your market projections are way off.
Schwab
total BS (Score:5, Insightful)
Well, it's funny that you can hardly find anyone in the SW industry who agrees, who actually know something about SW, like artists and programmers for example. It's only executives who aren't very technical and don't actually understand or use much who claim they're losing vast sums to piracy.
Want to know who pirates SW the most? People who make SW, and people who ultimately drive purchases of the most expensive SW for business and personal use. I've decided purchases of software selling for up to $16K per seat for entire teams in companies I've worked for, and it all went to staff members who were largely able to use it because they had learned to various degrees on pirated copies.
If it wasn't for SW piracy, far fewer people would be software expert users and the SW industry would be much smaller than it is. As a result, fewer PC computers would be sold, and we'd generally have a less computationally advanced society. That would obviously effect industries like the internet including commerce, movie special FX, and video game development, which are big economic drivers for the national economy.
Take Photoshop for example, that ubiquitous paint program. In my entire career I've never met a single Photoshop user, NOT ONE, that didn't sometimes use, and hadn't learned primarily on a pirated copy before becoming employed at a business that would purchase it to match their skills. Many of those people became interested in the field, and THEN went to school for training, because of the ability to try extensively for free. No trial programs don't suffice and never have. Reality is that every single art student has, and needs, a cracked copy. Later, studios buy software to match the preferences of the users, whose opinions are often based on use of pirated SW.
*** SW "piracy" = free advertising = increased market growth. ***
You can say the same for movie FX, or game development. Try and find people in those industries who don't give a large credit in their education to pirated software, or who would be less likely to be in the industry, and therefore not purchasing SW, if it wasn't for piracy. It's the same for many other industries. Even many secretaries and business software users have had access to pirated software to learn it, give it to friends, etc, which eventually supports a purchase in SW, and is like free advertising for the SW makers.
If it was possible to magically end all piracy in the US today, you'd see SW revenue and computer sales plummet in the short term, and overall national competitiveness drop in the long term.
These BSA bozos really do have their heads DEEP up their asses.
Companies like Adobe for example should be THANKING SW piracy for thier stock price.
Re:Too bad.. (Score:3, Insightful)
1)"I wouldn't have paid for it anyway, so it's not a lost sale"
OK, so let's say I go in to get my car's wheels rebalanced (or some other service). When they're done.. I just drive off without paying. Have I done anything wrong? Well, what if "I wouldn't have paid for it anyway"? So it's not a lost sale!
Yes it is. In the time they spent balancing your wheels, they were unable to do other revenue-earning work. The time and effort involved here is a finite resource. This is in contrast to software, where copies can be made without using up the original.
Your example is more like walking into a shop, and stealing the CDs from the shelves without paying for them; this really does represent a lost sale, as the shop will no longer be able to sell those CDs. I doubt this is anywhere near as common as the "piracy" that the likes of the BSA are making a fuss about.
This discussion is a BSA wet dream (Score:3, Insightful)
While we're at it, do any of you want to admit to smoking pot, snorting coke, distributing a virus, or murdering a hooker? :-)
And so is their letter to the Economist (Score:4, Insightful)
SIR - Your article on software piracy was extreme, misleading and irresponsible ("BSA or just BS?", May 21st). The headline was particularly offensive. The implication that an industry would purposely inflate the rate of piracy and its impact to suit its political aims is ridiculous. The problem is real and needs no exaggeration.
What an amusing little letter from an organization such as BSA.
extreme, misleading and irresponsible
Fine, enlighten us then- what is so "BS" about it, any proof/evidence?
The headline was particularly offensive.
W00t, let's go after the title, not the actual story itself! Attack the title to create an impression! Yes that's the way to win an arguement.
The implication that an industry would purposely inflate the rate of piracy and its impact to suit its political aims is ridiculous.
I don't see why not. Wow, I am really speechless. Fine, if you want to accuse the E of slendering, provide evidence that would uphold in a court battle.
The problem is real and needs no exaggeration.
So is your logic apparently.
Jesus, I can't believe the government is delegating the enforcement power to these idiots. This stuff looks as if it had been pass thru the random complain letter generator. [pakin.org]
They should just hire me- even I can do better than that.
Re:and the solution is??? (Score:3, Insightful)
What a surprise (Score:2, Insightful)
Remember, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Any psuedo science that takes one set of data and can produce two opposite results (Statistics) is really nothing but rumor gossip and bullshit.
The mathematical versions of Statistics and Economics currently taught in all U.S. Universities were invented by out of work mathematicians in the 50's so they would get jobs. Always keep that in mind.
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:5, Insightful)
It's my belief that they've done so because the leadership knows full well that such laws would never apply to them or their families. If they want to have sex with hookers, use cocaine or have abortions, they have the means to safely do so in a way that won't bring them into contact with the authorities. It's only the poor who have to abide by these laws. Hell, a cokehead alcoholic can get pretty far these days with the right connections.
Re:and the solution is??? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:3, Insightful)
Many companies would do well to learn from their example.
Re:piracy = increased SW market later. Duh! (Score:2, Insightful)
This is probably exactly why many development firms release educational versions of their software for noncommercial use. VS 2003 Academic costs $99 at my school bookstore. I suspect that many pirates would gladly prefer a company that releases a free or cheap version over pirating an expensive one. Many game developers and mod writers use gmax over Maya, because its free - and this turns over into 3DSMax sales when these hackers get themselves hired.
I suspect that free educational versions is the way of the future... give it 15 more years for the corperations to catch up with common sense.
The perect Mix: (Score:4, Insightful)
take 2 easily "convinced" people, one in either party*
take 5 organizations with lots of money and lawyers...
mix and get an endless slew of consumder unfriendly laws.
* Senetors Hatch and Lehey...
Re:OTHER HEADLINES TODAY (Score:3, Insightful)
What, you expected that once the cameras were off that they'd suddenly start being honest?!?
Bullshitting people is their business, and it looks like they made a sale.
Re:OTHER HEADLINES TODAY (Score:3, Insightful)
You insulted him twice and went on to regurgitate the stereotypical generalisation that tars all politicians with the same brush. How did you determine that all politicians are corrupt then? Michael Moore books or blogs?
Re:Standard? (Score:3, Insightful)
The only problem here is that certain "independent" analysts are commisioned by an organisation (BSA did IDC for Piracy, Microsoft did... err IDC for Windows v Linux) to do "independent" research that just happens to find the answer that was required.
Business Analysts, as we've seen with the Stock Market pushing on Wall Street are about as independent as Texas, they like to claim they are, but the reality is they're after the big buckets of pork.
Worse yet, look at some "markets" (Score:5, Insightful)
Hello? An average Chinese family's yearly income, last I've checked, is around the $1500 mark. That is, before, food, clothes, rent, etc.
Take your current yearly salary, multiply it by 4, and ask yourself if you would _ever_ pay that much for a piece of software you don't even really need. Would you?
Some of that software waved around by the BSA as big losses even I wouldn't buy on a western european salary, and I could afford it easily. E.g., would I pay some thousands of dollars on 3DS Max just to mod a $40 game like "X2 - The Threat"? Because that's the kind of use those pirate kids see out of that software. Heh. Would you? Right. That's what I thought too.
Re:And this is a surprise because? (Score:3, Insightful)
Find out what happened to China with opium, and then consider whether it's a good idea. I myself am worried about a scenario wherein drugs become as widely abused as television. In our extreme consumer society, is that not a possibility?
There are many things that cause people to fail: laziness, mental illness, addiction...
We can do something about the addiction. The laws are not perfect, and will never make drugs disappear. But they make most people avoid them most of the time. At least enough to keep us productive.
And life is not any less worth living because cocaine is illegal.