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Police Data-Mining Done Right

Posted by Zonk on Fri Aug 10, 2007 02:33 PM
from the way-its-supposed-to-be-used dept.
Privacy Databases Programming Software IT Technology
enharmonix writes "Courtesy of Bruce Schneier, it's nice to hear something good about data mining for a change: predicting and stopping crime. For example, police in Redmond, VA, 'started overlaying crime reports with other data, such as weather, traffic, sports events and paydays for large employers. The data was analyzed three times a day and something interesting emerged: Robberies spiked on paydays near cheque cashing storefronts in specific neighbourhoods. Other clusters also became apparent, and pretty soon police were deploying resources in advance and predicting where crime was most likely to occur.'"
+ -
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Submission: Schneier: Police data-mining done right by enharmonix (988983)
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  • "I'm losing my nerve," Benny said mournfully. "Six times this past year we've flicked into flash crowds, and three times I threw away everything I had because it looked like the cops had time to put us under riot control. Once I was right. Twice I was wrong. That's just not good enough." He braced himself. "I think I'll quit." There, he'd said it.

    A hole in space. [amazon.com] Larry Niven.

    Are the police going to share the location information?
    I might want to watch. Cops live!

        • Re:The Last Days of the Permanent Floating Riot Cl (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Irish_Samurai (224931) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:18PM (#20187837)

          Did we really need data mining for that, though?
          To do this without creating a police state where there are police everywhere yes we do.

          Strategic and tactical placement of resources to maximize effect without resorting to profiling or harassing citizens is a good thing.
          • Strategic and tactical placement of resources to maximize effect without resorting to profiling or harassing citizens is a good thing.

            What about cops walking a beat? That's right, walking down the same streets over and over everyday. Walking a beat means getting to know the locals and the particulars of a neighborhood in a way that doesn't happen in a squad car. Gangs don't hang out on a corner if once an hour a cops walks by a says hello, but the neighborhood kids still can hangout and could even end up viewing that cop as part of their neighborhood. From a squad car, no relationship is established and any stationary pack of teens can look like a gang to a biased eye. You don't have to profile when you actually know the people you see, but if you are just cruising along looking at a sea of nameless faces, then ethnicity and clothing style are about all you have to go on. Profiling is almost inevitable without establishing officers with good personal knowledge/relationship with the locals.
            • Gangs don't hang out on a corner if once an hour a cops walks by a says hello

              Actually, in many places they do. Beat cops and homicide cops often have somewhat amicable relationships with drug gangs so that they have informants when violent crimes happen. Narcotics cops are another issue, but they don't walk beats and it's rarely useful to arrest low-level players who are selling at street corners.

            • I really liked Jello Biafra's notion that communities could vote for the policemen who would walk their beat. In a country like the US with such a low voter participation rate, I don't think it could really work though.

  • That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Treskin (555947) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:37PM (#20187183)
    Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?

    • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by GregPK (991973) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:40PM (#20187243)
      I think thats just one thing that showed up on the radar. Something that someone may intuitively know may not be listened to by others without data to back it up. Things like they don't need to enforce traffic as much during foggy days because traffic is going slower already.
        • Many departments don't have quotas on tickets. They by and large don't need to. People violate traffic laws (speeding especially) ALL the time. So all you have to do is get cops that like to write tickets (bastards basically) and set them to work in areas that are a problem. You get loads of tickets.

          That's how it works here. You'll essentially never get a ticket for doing less than 10 over (except special cases like school zones and such) and there's no quotas at all. They just put the jerks, the people who

            • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

              by sumdumass (711423)
              I would agree with you normally. But then I see where they are more worried about catching a speeder then just doing something like clearing the branches of a tree that hides the reduced speed limit sign when coming into town so that anyone not familiar with the area cannot safely slow down after seeing the sign and before crossing it to end up speeding. Instead of putting a patrol car in areas with high speed traffic they are dressing up as law care workers and postmen to zapt them with a radar gun at the

                • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

                  by sumdumass (711423)
                  The problem I have with quotas and funding coming from fines, besides were the constitution says it can't be a source of revenue, is that there is no accountability. Suppose the police want a raise, write more tickets, suppose they want a spa package or country club membership as part of their pay benefits, write more tickets.

                  Well, what if there isn't enough people breaking the law for them to write more tickets? They can just pull you over and write one anyways. You goto court and say I wasn't speeding, I

    • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by heinousjay (683506) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:41PM (#20187265) Journal
      That was one example, probably selected because it doesn't give much away.

      Still, I have to congratulate you. This just wouldn't be Slashdot if we didn't get somebody denigrating the accomplishment. It's very gratifying to know that I post to the same board as so many people who can do everything with merely a stray thought, if they ever actually felt like getting around to it.

      • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:4, Insightful)

        by jedidiah (1196) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:45PM (#20187327) Homepage
        This is a case of feeding cop experience into a database and using that for pattern matching. That begs the obvious question of why cops weren't doing this sort of pattern matching in their heads already. If I can figure out that payday (or the day after) is not the greatest day to be in the bank due to the sudden surge of activity, robbers should be able to do the same as well as the cops.

        What happened to hunches and intuition?

        The point of data mining to to find the NON-OBVIOUS relationships.

        There's even a data warehousing product named just that.

        • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Interesting)

          by egburr (141740) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:54PM (#20187453) Homepage
          They probably are, but they can't admit it, because without hard data to back it up they get criticized for "profiling".

        • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)

          by jahudabudy (714731) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:11PM (#20187721)
          f I can figure out that payday (or the day after) is not the greatest day to be in the bank due to the sudden surge of activity,

          Whose payday? We can't post cops at all of the check cashing storefronts (not banks) all the time, so which stores see the most crime after which companies' paydays?

          If you can answer these questions with nothing but hunches and intuition, I'd suggest the stock market, not law enforcement.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by kd5ujz (640580)
          As a club DJ, I use this, I try to schedule my nights on the paydays of the local businesses (most will pay next Friday).
    • Why? Are you saying they should have just saved the money and asked you?

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by solar_blitz (1088029)

      Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?

      I'm sure it also points out there's less crime around donut shops, too.

      Seriously, though, that example the article cited seems like the one most people are likely to understand. Perhaps the article writer is less inclined to mention the more sensitive things like drug trafficking locations. That would hamper an investigation, wouldn't it?

    • Re:That's some fine police work, Lou. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by garcia (6573) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:03PM (#20187591) Homepage
      Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?

      You know, when you get down to it, there's a lot of stuff that jumps out after the fact that says, "why the fuck didn't we notice that before?" But when you're doing the day to day work (in any field) you may ignore or not even know about what seems unbelievably obvious.

      Just because this particular piece of information was the most prevalent in the story does not mean it's the only thing to come out of the reporting and it's certainly not the last thing that will be. Give it time. Data-mining's best fruits come from long term studies of data using a variety of methods.

      • Happens to us too (Score:4, Insightful)

        by phorm (591458) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:57PM (#20188525) Homepage Journal
        Now for all those computer/techie types, how many bugs or problems/issues seemed remarkably simple after you noticed/fixed them? How many times have you slapped your head and said "geeze, that was really simple."

        Sometimes it just helps to have somebody checking up on your work, even if that "somebody" is an automated process or machine.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by harrkev (623093)

      Do they really need to spend thousands of dollars analyzing data to determine there's more crime around check-cashing stores on paydays?
      Yes, they do. It sounds obvious, but WHOSE payday do you use. Some people get paid every Friday. Others get paid on the 1st and 15th. I get paid on the 6th and 21st. My last job paid me every other Friday. Social Security recipients get paid once a month (not sure of date). Which payday do you choose?
    • The reason is that cops are not allowed to profile ppl. As such, they would get busted. Now, they have proof as to WHY they should be there. Any court is going to say that the police force was simply being stationed where crimes were LIKELY to occur without regard to color, sex, etc. Keep in mind, that most of the check-cashing stores are NOT located at high-end shopping malls. They will be located in down-trodden areas.

  • Interesting (Score:5, Interesting)

    by stoolpigeon (454276) * <bittercode@gmail> on Friday August 10 2007, @02:37PM (#20187199) Homepage Journal
    I don't really tend to think in terms of the police having the job of preventing crime. I think there job should be to apprehend criminals who are involved in or have committed a crime. That said, I guess it is good if they have tools that better help them to schedule and plan enforcement. Like anything, it can be taken too far. I would think that what would separate 'good' data mining from 'bad' data mining would be transparency and over site in the process.
     
    On a side note - I'm willing to bet that if someone had asked most street cops in that area - they wouldn't have needed software or data mining tools to tell you that cash checking places in bad parts of town, on pay days were areas of higher crime.

    • Re:Interesting (Score:4, Insightful)

      by ari_j (90255) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:40PM (#20187255)
      Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished. If police increase their presence in areas and at times where and when crimes are likely to occur, there will be a deterrent effect. However, that is only the unavoidable side effect. Cops aren't trying to prevent crimes - they are trying to better focus their resources to catch criminals. It just so happens that the former is a pleasant result of the latter.

      • Re:Interesting (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Knuckles (8964) <[knuckles] [at] [dantian.org]> on Friday August 10 2007, @02:48PM (#20187371)
        Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished

        Says who? AFAICT, crime is best prevented by some minimum amount of personal freedom, reasonable living conditions regarding food, shelter, and education for all, along with some participation in matters of society.

      • Not really. (Score:5, Insightful)

        by khasim (1285) <brandioch.conner@gmail.com> on Friday August 10 2007, @02:51PM (#20187415)

        Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished.

        Not really. Jail time and such has almost no effect on changing criminal behaviour.

        Cops aren't trying to prevent crimes - they are trying to better focus their resources to catch criminals.

        Possibly. Or maybe they are trying to prevent crimes.

        The criminals are not worried about going to jail AFTER the crime is committed. But if there is a cop there at the moment they would have committed the crime, most criminals will not commit it.

        Means
        Motive
        Opportunity

        With a cop right there, the "opportunity" is removed. So no crime occurs. In general, the crime rate should go down because this isn't something that can easily be displaced. It seems to be tied to the area around a check cashing storefront. Increase the patrols in those areas and the crimes are not committed.

      • A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)

        by Normal Dan (1053064) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:02PM (#20187585)

        Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished.
        Actually, an even better way to prevent crime is to make sure everyone has a good job and a nice place to live and is content with life. People tend not to commit as many crimes when things are going well and they have too much to loose.

        imho

        • Re:A better way to prevent crime (Score:4, Insightful)

          by LighterShadeOfBlack (1011407) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:19PM (#20187847) Homepage

          Actually, an even better way to prevent crime is to make sure everyone has a good job and a nice place to live and is content with life. People tend not to commit as many crimes when things are going well and they have too much to loose.
          That's only true to an extent and only true for very specific crimes (ie. relatively low level theft). Not to mention one of the things you're listing there ("make sure everyone [...] is content with life") is flat out impossible. You can never have everyone content with life. There will always be inequity and jealousy and greed leading to criminal activity, and again this is only in relation to theft and crimes committed as a means to theft. Other crimes have any number of causes beyond a perceived need for comfort or contentment.

          • You can never have everyone content with life. There will always be inequity and jealousy and greed leading to criminal activity, and again this is only in relation to theft and crimes committed as a means to theft. Other crimes have any number of causes beyond a perceived need for comfort or contentment.
            This sounds like a job for... drugs!!!!!

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Spazmania (174582)
          I had a college roommate who couldn't pay the minimum amount due on his credit cards. His solution: relieve the stress by charging a $300 car stereo.

          For every person locked in to the underclass by circumstances beyond their control there are ten more who every day make the choices that keep them there. You can save the one with cash and a little education will help a couple of the ten. Throw resources at the rest and you'll only learn how to squander your money the way they do.

        • That sound like a good job? Is the governor mansion in Alaska a nice place to live? Should someone with that kind of job and all the perks be content with life?

          Then please tell me why the current senator of Alaska felt it neccesary to commit a crime WHILE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ALL AROUND THE WORLD MAKING A FRACTION OF HIS SALARY, HAVE NOTHING AND NOTHING TO LOOK FORWARD TOO DO NOT COMMIT CRIMES?

          Your comment is not just stupid, it is plain insulting.

          As if somehow being poor makes you a criminal, yuch. So eve

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by robably (1044462)

        Crime is best prevented by the fear of getting caught and punished.

        No, and that's what's wrong with almost all the crime-prevention programs you hear about. Drugs education is about instilling fear, drink-driving adverts are about instilling fear, anti-smoking campaigns are about instilling fear.

        The best way to prevent crime is not by instilling fear, but by having a society of people who are aware of how their actions affect others and genuinely want the world to be a nice place to live in, because then

  • Looks like someone's been watching Numb3rs.

  • Wrong city listed in summary (Score:5, Informative)

    by chiph (523845) on Friday August 10 2007, @02:39PM (#20187229)
    The city that won the business intelligence award for data mining is Richmond VA, not 'Redmond'.

    Chip H.
  • How long till it catches on with the criminals?

    Some people don't go to places at peak time to avoid queues, if criminals realise the police know the peak times, they can anticipate the strength of guard and where police are?

    Knowledge like this can be used to both party's advantages. Some facts are obviously public knowledge such as weather.

    I don't think it even takes well-organized crime to understand this.

    How about the police force has a counter-itself division? It uses the public knowledge and works indep

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by kent_eh (543303)
      How long till it catches on with the criminals?

      You haven't met a lot of criminals, have you?
      As a group, they're not the sharpest pencils in the box.

      That's not to say that they don't think they're "smarter than the cops".

      Many are convinced that they can outsmart the cops, and thus have no fear of getting caught.
      And with the concern for getting caught conveniently out of their mind, there is also no concern over the punishment, "cause I ain't gonna get caught, so there is no punishment."
  • you come to one undeniable conclusion:

    cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life

    almost all the comments here have some sort of negative thought or smarmy remark on an aspect of this story. and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed. and what are the cops doing? no, what are they actually doing? i'm not asking your paranoid distrustful hollywood-addled alter ego, i'm asking your cognitive ability to look at and perceive the reality of actual police work

    typical human shortsightedness and lack of gratitude

    it must be so thankless being a cop. you're there to protect people, and all they can do is reflexively depart negativity at you

    humanity sucks. you are all so ungrateful

    • Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:4, Informative)

      by CaffeineAddict2001 (518485) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:04PM (#20187615)
      People go to the police because they are the only ones in our society who are given the right to use force and spy on people, not because we think they are the most qualified for helping us with our problems.

      • what exactly does that mean? what are the qualifications in your mind to becoming a cop? i'm going to take a wild guess and say that you would like to see higher standards when hiring cops. ok: now look at the way cops are treated, in your mind, and in the mind of the typical citizen: distrust, fear, hostility

        now ask yourself why your stellar qualifications aren't met in new recruits. gee, maybe it has something to do with the general attitude towards cops? highly qualified people seek out jobs that are hig

    • Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)

      by analogueblue (853280) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:13PM (#20187747) Homepage
      Having had my apartment robbed, I can tell you that I did call the police. They sent a guy out over 24 hours later, who basically said "yeah, lots of people have been getting robbed around here lately", (note: i lived in a pretty nice area), "you probably won't get anything back. I hope you're insured." and left. No finger printing, no looking at the busted door, no follow up.

      Add that to MANY instances of being harassed by cops for my car, my youth, being out late, etc... and it's hard not to have a negative view. I'm sure there are some good cops out there. I don't doubt it. But when I'm robbed they can't send a cop out that day, presumably because they're all too busy pulling over young guys in expensive cars and searching them without probably cause (I'm in tech, I'm not a drug dealer), or issuing speeding tickets for 25 in a 20 to meet their quotas.

      Anecdotes don't make a rule, it's true, but they do color a persons opinions. I've interacted with law enforcement many times (speeding tickets, random pull overs, having my apt. robbed, car accident, firearms testing for concealed carry, etc...), probably about 25 interactions. Of those, one was reasonably positive (helped after my car died on the side of the road), a few were neutral (neither helpful not malicious or abusive), and the rest (about 20) were negative (screaming and threats, searches without cause, rough handling, rudeness, apathy, etc...).
      • there are silences in your anecdotes that speak volumes

        of course there are cops that take out their frustrations on innocent people. these cops are far and few between though, and they always quickly overstep their bounds in such a way as to be removed from the street

        meanwhile you talk about rudeness, rough handling, screaming and threats being the norm. so there seems to be a disconnect somewhere, since cops just don't go apeshit for no reason. cops are human beings. they act the same way you and i do. and

      • Re:scanning the comments here on slashdot (Score:5, Insightful)

        by smellsofbikes (890263) on Friday August 10 2007, @04:49PM (#20189291) Journal
        I lived in a lousy part of town, and was burglarized twice within two years. The first time, the burglar kicked in a door and took about $800 worth of stuff. The police came by about an hour after I called them, looked around, said they doubted I'd get any of it back, and duly cranked out a report for me to file with my insurance claim. The second time, I was walking in my front door when the burglar was walking out of it, and I grabbed my backpack out of his hands. THAT time, the police were there within maybe two minutes of my call, two cars plus an unmarked detective car at the house and another two cruising up the way the guy ran; they took pictures of everything and fingerprints from doors, stuff he'd touched and dropped, you name it. One detective told me "we get extremely interested as soon as there's homeowner contact with the burglar."

        My point being: the police have different criteria for what's important than you do, and they're professionals with lots of experience. Your history with them sounds like it sucks, and it's likely they were wrong a lot of the time. But you don't know why they're doing what they're doing, and my observation is that their decisions don't seem to be completely arbitrary.
    • I almost never called a cop. One time I did because neighbor was making noise after midnight, and nothing happened. The second time I wanted someone to mediate between a tenant and a landlord, they wouldn't do it.

      The only cases that I actually talked to a policeman were on the highway, and I had to pay hundreds of dollars and time to show up in traffic court.

      Oh, and occasional phone calls to ask for a donation. "No thanks, I've paid my fine share of speeding tickets this year."

      So don't lecture us what to th

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by db32 (862117)
      *CLAP* It is about time someone mentioned this. People seem to act like cops are all part of some vast conspiracy network, when the reality is, most of them are just trying to survive another night and get home and see their wife and kids. People here have some rather paranoid delusions, but look at it from the cop side, there are alot of people out to get them, and they can't hide. They wear uniforms (so help me God the first person who spouts off trying to split hairs about plain clothes cops gets a s

    • God.. (Score:3, Informative)

      by msimm (580077)
      Where do you people come from? Humanity sucks? People with your shit attitude suck. I scanned the comments, they where a typical mix. I don't love or hate police. I don't like it when they abuse their power (power has that problem) but I know there are plenty of people out there working in law enforcement that do what they do because they care about it. Same as with a lot of other things, but like doctors, paramedics, firefighters and countless other occupations what they do often helps save lives.

      Maybe i

    • cop work is one of the most criticized, and yet at the same time vital, aspects of modern life

      Cop work is criticized because when it is abused, it is one of the most damaging and dangerous aspects of our society, and it is abused every day by a large number of cops.

      and yet a cop is the first person these same people will call upon and depend upon if they are ever victimized or robbed.

      Police intervene in time to prevent a crime in only a few percent of all crimes. Most of the time, they don't even investigate robberies. If you're robbed you call them and hope you have insurance.If someone attacks you, you fight them or shoot them, and call the police afterwards so that they don't come for you when the body is foun

  • That;'s what CompStat in NYC does (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Animats (122034) on Friday August 10 2007, @03:38PM (#20188217) Homepage

    The NYPD's CompStat system [wikipedia.org] has been doing that for about ten years now. It's working reasonably well. At first it was really effective, because career criminals tend to fall into predictable patterns. Crime in NYC has dropped enough that there's more randomness, and prediction is less effective.

  • People still cash checks? (Score:3, Funny)

    by hcdejong (561314) <acme&xmsnet,nl> on Saturday August 11 2007, @07:54AM (#20194645)
    Wow. Over here, companies use direct bank transfers to pay their workers' salaries, and have done so for at least 30 years now. I've no need to ever carry large amounts of cash or cash-analogue paper (checks).

    Is the US banking industry really that backward? How come?

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